Yeah, I’ve kind of given up on signing him. I prefer to be pleasantly surprised than disappointed. I think he wants $40M plus and I think someone will give it to him. I’m not sure Houston will go that high.
It will suck seeing JV in LA or with the steM.
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My hope is that he may be willing to accept lower AAV if Houston goes 3 yrs.
Maybe if it ends up closer to $100M than $130M for 3 Crane ageees to the 3rd year.
I could still see Crane coming back and negotiating personally after JV gets all his other offers and they agree on a VERY slight discount to stay.
But once Contreras signs ( if he does) I think the money is no longer there.
Just my opinion. Nothing else.
Renewed love of the game my ass! I also don’t want to hear about how he’s doing it to help the younger guys get bigger contracts, give me a break.
We have starting pitching in supply should Verlander move on. A left-handed bat in a need position as described above is a priority however it occurs. There are near-term farm system options at catcher and outfield, so perhaps we get a player for two years at most
The more I think about this, the more I think its about getting to 300 wins.
JV wants 3 years because he is 40 and does not want to be a free agent at 42.
He has 244 wins.
Lets say he is a good SP the next 2 years but shows some decline in year 2. He wins 17 then 15 with reduced numbers across the board and possibly a couple of nagging injuries.
He may struggle to get a contract because he is still 24 wins away which feels unlikely for a 42 year old who is merely average and trending downward. At the very least he will need to go through this again.
Now lets say if he had a 3 year deal he pitches the same and levels off with the 3rd year being the same as the second - 15 wins but league average numbers and a couple of nagging injuries.
He is still a viable starter if not an all star anymore and is only 9 wins from 300.
Someone will sign him just for the chance he gets 300 wins in their uniform.
Just a thought I have.
I wonder if Crane would go 3 years if JV reduces his asking AAV? Maybe $100M instead of $130M?
I think it’s about money or he would have already signed with the team that helped resurrect his career and helped him achieve a 61-19 record and 2 World Series rings.
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The TJ surgery wiped out his calendar for 300 wins. He’s in the hof regardless, so his goal is not his team’s goal. Abreu or Brown can handle this slot, and monies are freed to address areas of impending urgency
The money is “freed”?
Crane can spend whatever he wants. It’s a choice whether to add that salary or not, but let’s not pretend there’s some hard cap.
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I think that’s a good observation.
I also think that Crane should be completely ignoring the first luxury tax threshold ($233M) and be playing closer to the 4th tier “Cohen tax” level ($293M). The window is open, put your chips in the pot. But it ain’t my money.
If Verlander is after wins it’s hard to argue the Astros aren’t the best equipped to get them for him.
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Assume Verlander would 20 games pitching for the Astros next year. Isn’t it reasonable to also assume that if Verlander goes elsewhere, his replacement (Garcia, Urquidy, Brown, whoever) would win around 15 games especially given the strength of the bullpen and the offense? Looks like Crane would be paying $6-8MM each per extra win Verlander would provide. Not sure that would be part of Crane’s calculation though. I think that if Crane signs Verlander it is because he likes seeing him in an Astro uniform and not because Verlander is needed for the Astros to be the best team in baseball next year.
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At some point, doesn’t “excessive” spending start to cost draft picks? I’d call that pretty close to a hard cap. It’s not like he can come up with more draft picks just by raising ticket prices or beer prices or the price of his logistics services.
It somewhat degrades your draft quality, but not significantly.
If you go $40M over the first luxury tax threshold, your highest draft pick gets pushed back 10 spots. That’s a nearly negligible penalty for a team picking 30th overall.
If the Astros exceeded the luxury tax in the previous season and then sign a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, then they’d lose their 2nd and 5th highest picks, and $1M from your international signing bonus pool. The penalty there, though, is not much steeper than if they stayed under the threshold (2nd pick, $500k).
And if they made a QO to a free agent who went on to sign with another team, then exceeding the luxury tax threshold downgrades your compensation pick (from around picks 75-80 to the mid-100s).
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The report about JV wanting 3 years at $130M is not new. In addition, the report about JV and Stros/Crane being far apart is not new either. Crane essentially told us about both weeks ago.
Anyhow all of this reporting is background noise to me. Just because JV is asking for this type of contract does not mean he will get it (cash or years or both). If JV can get the moons and stars that he is asking for then good for him, but if he can’t then there’s still a chance that both he and crane can find a middle ground and still make a deal…luxury tax be damned by the way.
If I understand the luxury tax thresholds correctly, the primary deterrent is supposed to be the cumulative effect of repeatedly blowing past the threshold. You end up with a lot of dead money.
Say the Mets dole out contracts with a face value of $310M in 2023-2025. By 2025, their $310M roster would cost them $410M.
Is it still a profitable operation with a $410M player payroll? Beats me–accurate team revenue info is hard to find.
Wondering how the Contreras acquisition rumor mill is impacted by Kory Lee’s anticipated mlb full-time readiness in 2024. Was there supposed to be a meeting between Contreras and Astros staff?
My understanding is that it will happen during the winter meetings and include someone from the pitching side - Bill Murphy was mentioned but not confirmed- as well as front office people.