I would offer him Lindor’s contract plus a little extra and if he doesn’t take it, no regrets.
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I wonder if the Astros front office simply treats this as a hard-headed business analytical metrics decision, negating any qualities he’s given on and off the field. From the former perspective, his ability to stay on the field can be considered a seasonal outlier and skew his new contract numbers accordingly.
I’ve seen this with the local NBA team, which sends players at or right before reaching their prime. The CBA does give MLB execs the opportunity to acquire services at relatively bargain basement levels, so the interval for top players to realize full salary value is narrowed at the tail end.
10 yrs $341?
It’s not my money so I don’t have a problem with offering him that.
But I don’t think it would take that.
In January or February, during an interview on Astroline, he said those exact words. That’s what prompted the initial extension talks during Spring Training at the same time his best friend on the team, McCullers, was going through his own extension talks, too.
Also, if he had one foot out the door, why would Yuli speak the way he did during yesterday’s interview? His teammates would have a good idea of how Correa feels by this point, and they sure haven’t acted like it’s a sure thing he leaves. Even when going to arbitration, Correa has always maintained that things were always business and he had no hard feelings.
After Lindor flopped this year and considering the glut of above average to elite shortstops available, I don’t see anyone approaching that number. Steve Cohen made a panic deal and got burned.
Couldn’t happen to a better person/team/city. You absolutely hate to see it.
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The Astros can use opt outs and/or options to make the deal more attractive to both parties.
A front loaded contract with an opt out makes sense because it gives Correa an additional benefit and also could give some salary relief 3-5 years down the road when players like Alvarez, Tucker, Luis Garcia, and others could be very expensive.
Options can be used ( like Odorizzi’s deal) to get the potential length more to Correa’s liking but also reduce the AAV which has salary flexibility.
My suggestion is a 7 year $210 mil offer with player option in year 8 and an opt outs after year 3 as a 30 year old and 5 as a 32 year old.
Salaries will be:
2022: $32mil
2023: $32mil
2024: $32mil
2025: $30mil
2026: $30mil
2027: $28mil
2028: $26mil.
2029 is player option of $24mil with $6mil buyout.
Based on current CBA rules the contract has AAV of $29.25 mil.
Correa takes it because he can make up to $234 million in 8 years and is guaranteed $216 mil in 7 years if he does not opt out, but has options to become a free agent again at ages 30, 32, 34 or 35.
Click can stick to his ideal that he does not want Long term commitments because Carlos is likely to opt out rather than play for a lesser salary.
Either way, the team gets at least the rest of his 20s without a 10 year, $300 mil commitment.
What are your thoughts?
There is absolutely no chance in hell the Astros can re-sign Correa for less than $300MM guaranteed. None. It’ll probably take closer to $350MM. That’s at least a 10 year committment, or a ridiculous overpay.
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I don’t think there’s any way this gets it done. It falls $118 million short in guaranteed money vs. Lindor’s contract, which I still believe to be Correa’s best comp and the standard he’s going to use. One of his only knocks has been his durability, but he just stayed relatively healthy for a 162-game season for the first time since 2016, and in doing so he led the league in WAR and set career highs in walks and home runs. This is to say nothing of his career accomplishments in Houston (especially his postseason bona fides).
Only Correa knows what dollar value he’s going to assign to staying in Houston, but I guarantee you it’s not $118 million.
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You think he’s insulted now, wait until the Astros tell him he’s worth a third less than Lindor.
Bottom line: you want to re-sign Correa, you’re gonna have to bite the bullet and throw absurd amounts of money at him and sacrifice elsewhere, probably starting pitching.
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Unfortunately I agree with you.
This was a hail Mary and desperate attempt to brainstorm a way that the Astros “No long term (7+ yrs) commitments” ideals might work.
I still think that Correa could “bet on himself” by accepting a contract with an opt out but I agree that the length and guaranteed money required in that deal would mean the opt out doesn’t accomplish the goal.
If the Astros want to stay under 7 years, the dollar value with start at $50MM/year.
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Carlos is a great player, great leader and has been a great Astro but there is just no way that Carlos accepts 7/$210MM and no way that Crane gives him 10/$350MM. If he truly loves being in Houston, he’s going to have to sacrifice some, which he won’t do. I would be willing to bet that Correa will ask for more money than Lindor.
The only way I see a lower guaranteed figure possibly working is if you throw in some very generous performance bonuses (e.g. $5mm for 400 PA, $5mm for 900 PA over two years), but even that is fantasy land. I can’t recall a superstar signing their first FA contract with performance bonuses.
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There is zero chance Correa will tie his compensation to performance or staying on the field. He has made it clear that he feels he has paid his dues and has earned top dollar, and will not sign for less. That means a guaranteed $300MM…minimum. If you want to throw in $100MM in bonuses on top of that, he may not laugh you out of the room. But this idea that he will take a 30% discount to stay in Houston is nuts.
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Crane & Co. have not scrimped on salary. $190+MM in player salary is proof positive. But, every indication is they understand product value and the inputs that go into that and are very good at managing that. Exploiting the current (negotiated and agreed-upon) CBA agreement and deriving the greatest (cost+performance) value out of players is just good business. If that calculus changes, like it will in a few weeks with Correa, they are right to take a hard look and hold firm to a formula that has been wildly successful over the last 6 years and is also working well in other places like Tampa.
As a fan, I want them to pay the man. As a fan that wants the brain trust of Astros Management to continue to field a competitive product, I can’t mentally justify the $$ Correa is likely to demand. I think it’s likely too injurious to that longer term competitive product model that we’ve enjoyed over the last 6 years.
Agreed on all points.
Two things:
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The Astros are not the fucking Rays when it comes to payroll and revenue, and if they start behaving like them when it comes to keeping elite players long term, I’ll be beyond pissed. The Astros’ have the money and resources to keep their elite players, within reason.
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Paying Carlos Correa 30-35M per season will not inhibit the Astros’ ability to win in 2022 or beyond.
Next year’s payroll is roughly 130-135M (assuming arbitration numbers for Stanek and Valdez and Diaz) as it stands, and the luxury tax threshold is in the 195-200M range. In 2023, Bregman’s salary jumps 18M and Tucker, Urquidy and Alvarez all enter their first year of arbitration with Framber in his second. The Astros also need to resign Pressly, Gurriel, Brantley, Castro and Diaz after next season (though they may choose a cheaper utility option). The year to really worry would be 2024, when Altuve, Bregman and Correa would all be making big money, and Alvarez, Tucker, Urquidy and Valdez would be in their second or third season of arbitration. However, Altuve’s and Bregman’s deals both end after that season, and in Altuve’s case, he turns 35 in the 2025 season.
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Correa’s durability is still my biggest concern with a long-term deal. I would hesitate to pay top-of-the-market money to anyone with his injury history.
FWIW, I do think this team will operate kind of like the Rays for a few years, but with a more respectable payroll. Click probably has a mandate to re-stock the farm while keeping the MLB team competitive. That would mean more signings like Brantley and trades like Graveman, but no signings like Correa (which cost draft picks) or trades like Greinke.
The parties’ actions clearly indicate that the team isn’t going to offer Carlos a deal near market rate. With aging stars and a thin system, they’re going to have to fill more holes via free agency, and paying $30M/y for a single player doesn’t fit that strategy. I’ll be sorry to see him go but the writing’s on the wall.
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Alvarez will be arb eligible in 2023. He did play in 2020, though most was on the DL. Still, he accumulated service time, and now has 2 years and 113 days. If he gets a full year in 2022 ( or even a a couple of months), he’ll be arb eligible going into the 2023 season.
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