Texas cases spiked over 4k again yesterday, though it’s not clear to me if they’re all new cases per a mix of new and previously unreported. Meanwhile the death rates are falling, which is a good thing. Is that because the infected are generally younger, or if treatments are better, or just because the health system isn’t stressed so there are treatments? Or is the answer to that question yes?
The demographics of positive tests in California has shifted younger (I think from 36% of 18-39 to 54%). Haven’t seen the numbers in Houston. That could be due to prison testing, more meat-packers, opening up certain types of work, more time spent in air conditioning, etc.
I’m always seeing a different data set than some here. I think the data set where there are two 4,000+ days include prisons. I did on that first day at least. Both data sets looks bad.
I’m not sure what a daily death rate is, or at least a stat that had meaning might be. The only way it would make sense if you followed each new case, followed them long enough to determine if they die, and then go back and re-calculate death rates. If the daily death rate is simply the daily deaths divided by the daily new cases, it is pretty meaningless and better be decreasing as the denominator quickly increases, as it has the last week.
At any rate, the total hospitalizations are increasing with a similar upward slope to new cases. The% positive also shot through the roof yesterday. Hopefully, the newly hospitalized won’t die at the same rate as the past, either due to demographic makeup or medical advances, but it seems too early to draw conclusions.
There are so many different sources of numbers, it’s hard to keep track. I tend to follow New York Times’ numbers because I read it most days anyway. I know what it reports for Harris County matches what’s on the Harris Health website, but is usually more than the Texas Health and Human Services, but not much more.
The Texas Tribune numbers also indicate the 4K+ number for today. In a blurb from Wapo, they say that the previous 4K+ was prison related, but not this one.
This seems pretty serious. Even though the Guv says “it’s just kids,” the case curve and hospitalization curve are pretty damn steep, and the hospitalization rate hasn’t decreased. So, if it’s just kids, seems as if they are still getting pretty sick.
Don’t take this the wrong way, but hopefully it’s a temporary spike from the George Floyd protests.
I just saw that they can’t fill the arena. They’re putting out calls for more attendees and crowding everyone onto the floor and lower level to make it appear more crowded than it is.
The TV doctor said “I wish they would use more social distancing, especially with all the room they have available”.
Love hearing no crowd. I hope there are lots of photos.
All over Twitter.
We will hear tomorrow about overflow crowds and hundreds of thousands turned away. Glad there are photos and even gladder Der Fuhrer may have lost some of his pizzazz.
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What an unmitigated disaster by his campaign. They went from 1 million to 7K. Someone is getting fired over this.
Today’s excuses: media and protesters are to blame. “Very bad people outside.”
Hahahahaha!
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Texas is turning into one giant hot spot, and they’ve had to change the scale on the chart to reflect the fact that we have over 4,000 new cases a day regularly now.
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Houston…don’t make me say it!
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I think it is safe to say there is no significant seasonality to COVID 19. The major outbreaks in the U.S. are all in the south. TX,FL,AZ, and Southern CA are all seeing record highs in daily cases and some very ugly trend lines.
The control system for the virus is not entirely understood and has a very sluggish feedback. The bluntest instrument, the Stay at Home Order, takes about three weeks to start showing results. Intermediate measures, such as masks, occupancy limits, and selective activity curtailment probably take longer to see results. Compliance is the key to any of it, but with national leadership actively working against public compliance, the efficacy of any measures are in doubt.
To counter a trend, action must be taken immediately upon recognition. The trends in these states were well established before any counter measures were taken. Trump, and his toadies at the state level, are either actively opposing efforts to control the virus such as masks, or publicly declaring that they will not promote or enforce those measures. Trump and his toadies are literally killing Americans by the thousands. That is not hyperbole, that the reality we live in.
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Any day now, with 23 states seeing growing epidemics, we will set a new worst day for new cases. This is a complete and utter failure of leadership.
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The greatest failure of Presidential leadership in U.S. history.
Meanwhile, Minnesota has yet to experience any significant increase. If the protests against racism and police brutality caused a rapid increase in cases, it will show up in Minnesota first. I note that the gun toting Proud / Boogaloo - Boys / Bois protests against saving lives were mostly outdoor, except when attempting armed takeovers of Capitol buildings. Although these rallies were smaller than the later demonstrations, they did not lead to significant spikes either.
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While there was much to mock and enjoy about Trump’s Tulsa mega-faceplant, there was one thing he actually said that was worth noting: he said that he told his people to to slow down testing, because they were finding too many cases. I’m sure by now you’ve seen the clip.
His media zambonis emerged from under the bleachers and went with the now-customary defense that he was just joking. Like he was just joking about injecting disinfectant. We all know he wasn’t, but the comment was so clearly bat-shit crazy that they only defense is that it has to be a joke. Anything other than that is a horrible, damning, evil admission that he’d let people risk the virus in order to help his re-election chances.
Well, Trump’s having none of it. He has since doubled, tripled and quadrupled down on the statement, confirming that he meant it, and that it’s not a joke. Here he is today - as he sets off for Arizona on leg two of his covidpalooza tour - is making it unequivocal.
Here’s a tweet from this morning:
Trump is writing the attack ads (and Sarah Cooper spoofs) faster than they can make them.
Fauci and other medical experts are on Capitol Hill this morning to testify about the federal government’s response to the pandemic. I wonder if these statements will come up.
He’s just letting the base know that if they valued him for his ignorant, anti-science actions, he hasn’t changed.
My natural reaction is that the press should have a rational back and forth with him, to expose his flawed thinking, or maybe just educate him. You know, ask him “if testing isn’t important, why is everyone around you tested all the time?” in hopes that this might illicit the idea that if it’s valuable for his safety, it would be valuable for others as well.
However, I’ve learned that this imaginary scenario is impossible. Trump revels in his stupidity, and his fans love him for it.