Callis and Mayo from MLB.com with their last mock this morning. The former has the Astros taking Ty Floyd. The latter says Ralph’s Velasquez.
They also mention Chase Davis, Walker Martin, Sammy Stafura, Yohandy Morales, and Brock Willken as possibilities.
And the final mock from BA sticks with Floyd. Also mentions high school SS Avery Ortiz and Florida State RHP Jackson Baumeister as potential picks for other early rounds. Surprise surprise, Baumeister has a hard riding fastball.
BA ranks Baumeister #69 in the class:
Baumeister was a talented two-way player in high school as a catcher and pitcher who ranked as a top-100 player in the 2021 draft class. A draft-eligible sophomore in 2023, Baumeister pitched out of the Florida State bullpen during the 2022 season, where he posted a 5.60 ERA over 27.1 innings, while striking out 41 and walking 20. He struggled significantly with his control but showed improvement in that area through five starts and 17 innings with Hyannis in the Cape Cod League, where he posted a 3.71 ERA and struck out 25, while walking eight. Those control improvements translated to the 2023 season, where the 6-foot-4, 226-pound righthander posted a career-best 9.4% walk rate, with a 4.96 ERA over 69 innings. Baumeister’s arsenal is led by an excellent fastball that sits around 93 mph and has touched 98. What makes the pitch special is the above-average induced vertical break, over 17 inches, that also comes with tremendous extension and a flat approach angle that all help the pitch play above its velocity. Baumeister’s go-to secondary is a mid-70s top-down curveball that looks average, and he has also thrown a mid-80s changeup that could be a decent offering for lefthanders. He also added a new slider in the low 80s but he struggled to get on top of the pitch consistently and used it just 7% of the time.
And they have Ortiz at #346:
Ortiz is a 6-foot-1, 185-pound shortstop who wowed scouts with his athletic testing at Prep Baseball Report’s Super 60 Showcase in February. He has impressive pure bat speed and intriguing future power potential that comes from that, and also flashed his ability to handle velocity when he turned around a 96 mph fastball for a hard-hit double during the Area Code Games in San Diego. He did struggle at that event on the defensive end, where he made errors on a few playable balls, but scouts remain intrigued with his natural athleticism and raw tools. He’s committed to Oklahoma State and is on the younger side for the class with an early June birthday.
The draft starts in about an hour. Day 1 includes the first and second rounds, plus compensation rounds after each. The Astros will pick twice today, first at 28 and again at 61.
As a fun time waster, I quickly made a list of all the players on the BA Top 500 whose cards included the words “induced vertical break.” Over the three days of the draft, what’s the O/U on how many of these names the Astros take?
|44|Ty Floyd|
|46|Juaron Watts-Brown|
|53|Cade Kuehler|
|65|Will Sanders|
|69|Jackson Baumeister|
|137|Camden Minacci|
|186|Jaden Hamm|
|271|Sam Knowlton|
|283|Emmett Olson|
|294|Justin Storm|
|295|Ethan Flanagan|
|300|Owen Wild|
|308|Aidan Knaak|
|321|Jacob Cravey|
|336|Riley Gowens|
|352|Adam Boucher|
|357|Trent Sellers|
|359|Hunter Furtado|
|395|Teddy Sharkey|
|396|Brett Banks|
|405|Josh Timmerman|
|438|Cade Smith|
|439|Blake Money|
|450|Simon Miller|
|464|Sam Highfill|
|499|Kyle Amendt|
Other than #28, what picks do the Stros have tonight?
#61 at the end of the second round, but that’s it.
And we’re off. Paul Skenes #1 to Pittsburgh. Won’t report every pick here but may chime in if guys linked to the Astros get popped.
Is Skenes the Air Force guy?
Yep, Air Force to LSU transfer.
Yep, bastard should have transfered to UT
Through 5 picks it’s Skenes-Crews-Clark-Langford-Jenkins. One ace righty and four wildly talented outfielders. They were the consensus top 5 in the draft (though debatable in order), so none of the top 5 teams got cute and tried to cut an under-slot deal with anyone else.
We will not enjoy Langford playing for the Rangers in a couple years.
Strong night for industry consensus so far. Through 15 picks, 14 of BA’s top 15 are off the board. No real surprises, nobody really sliding.
First time a player mocked to the Astros has been taken: Brock Wilken, Wake Forest 3B, goes to Milwaukee at 18. Draft model team takes draft model darling. Also notable that Wilken got taken ahead of TCU 3B Brayden Taylor, probably the consensus top 3B in the class. Bit of a slide there.
At 17, the Orioles took one of the more interesting guys in the draft in Vanderbilt CF Enrique Bradfield. Basically guaranteed to play in the majors with truly elite speed and defense, may never be much of a threat at the plate, but provides enough value in every other aspect that he’ll probably have a long big league career.
Edit: and there goes Taylor at 19 to the Rays.
After reading all the fantastic info posted here (thanks to all providers) I’m hoping we grab the Floyd kid.
Colt Emerson to Seattle at 22; Ralphy Velazquez to Cleveland at 23. Velazquez had been mocked to Houston a few times, never all that credibly, and Emerson fit as a high-ranked infielder.
Names to watch as we get closer:
Ty Floyd, RHP (especially if he gets past Atlanta at 24)
Hurston Waldrep, RHP
Colin Houck, SS
Walker Martin, SS
Yohandy Morales, 3B
Waldrep to Atlanta at 24. Seems likely to be Floyd at this point. Lots of smoke around him to Houston, not such much for the three teams picking before us (San Diego, NYY, Philadelphia).
Padres take OF Dillon Head. Yankees take SS George Lombard, Jr.–NOT SS Sammy Stafura, who they’d been connected to for months. Astros are rumored to like Stafura a lot. Will be interesting to see where this goes. Phillies on the clock, then Houston.
Another pitcher to watch, high school LHP Thomas White. Consensus would’ve had him going in the teens. Generally considered the second-best HS pitcher in the class behind RHP Noble Meyer (who went 10 to Miami).
Your commentary is great.
3B Aidan Miller to Philadelphia. Astros on the clock. Floyd and Stafura both on the board… odds are one of them I guess.
And it’s… BRICE MATTHEWS, Nebraska SS. The guy from twitter was right! More on Matthews in a sec, but this is pretty exciting.