Somehow missed Jonathan Mayo’s mock draft from June 8th, which also has the Astros selecting Yohandy Morales:
Morales is MLB.com’s #17 prospect. For him to fall to the Astros who pick at #28 would be a bit of a coup.
Tagging on here, Keith Law in his latest mock draft has the Astros selecting RHP Hursten Waldrep out of the University of Florida (he of the 12 strikeouts against Oral Roberts the other day).
Another guy who’s a bit of a surprise to me. Most of what I’ve seen has Waldrep going somewhere around the middle of the first round - i.e. picks 10-20. FB consistently sits 95-99, splitter-change misses a lot of bats and an upper 80’s slider that could be his wipeout pitch. There are issues with his control, however, and Law says teams have enough concern there that it’s causing him to fall.
I have serious doubts Waldrep will be available when the Astros pick at #28. But that arm in the Astros pitching development could be ridiculously good.
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From what I’ve read on Waldrep, his fastball is hittable and they’ve got him throwing it too much. The Astros have had good results with pitch-backward guys (McHugh, etc.) if that’s what Waldrep becomes, or maybe they can develop the fastball into a better weapon. But I’d be pretty stunned to see him fall to 28.
Here’s another mock from a guy on twitter, albeit one who generally seems to know his stuff. He’s one of the draft model nerds (compliment) in a group I follow, several of whom have been hired by MLB clubs over the past year. So take this with a grain of salt but not necessarily any more than Keith Law or some of the other professional chucklefucks.
Anyway, here’s his read on the Astros:
- Houston Astros — Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest
Houston has been tied to all of the model darling college bats this spring, and when I say all I mean ALL. Colton Ledbetter, Jack Hurley, Brice Matthews, Travis Honeyman, Nolan Schanuel, Jace Bohrofen, and Brayden Taylor among others have all been mentioned with varying degrees of credibility. Additionally, Walker Martin and Nazzan Zanatello have been connected here as well.
And fwiw he’s also got Waldrep falling, but not all the way to 28.
The point of all these mock drafts is to get attention for the mocker. This means choosing surprise picks early — hoping to start a buzz based on some presumed (but probably absent) insider information or scouting insights. That leaves the prospects everyone knows about dropping to lower picks. I would put zero credence in anything below about pick 5 and almost zero in the top 5.
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Thanks for the heads up about Waldrep and his usage. Hadn’t heard that before, so makes some sense as to why some folks are saying he’s falling in the draft (like you, though, I doubt he’ll fall that much, if at all, let alone down to the Astros at #28).
Caveat emptor, I obviously have no inside information. The draft is one of my favorite times of the year so I tend to read a lot of mocks and analysis from folks far more well connnected than I am - i.e. I’m nothing more than just another idiot on the street posting his thoughts. That said, most of what I’ve seen is the exact opposite of this chap’s take. Houston seems to be all over prep infielders, not college players. THAT being said, Houston is also probably the best organization at keeping their mouth shut this time of year.
Many years, I would agree with you that predicting draft picks is a fool’s errand. This year, however, the top five have consistently settled on some combination of:
Dylan Crews (OF, LSU)
Paul Skenes (RHP, LSU)
Wyatt Langford (LF, Florida)
Max Clark (OF, HS)
Walker Jenkins (OF, HS)
Crews is considered 1/1, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if the Pirates choose Clark or Jenkins. They’ve adored prep players in the past and then there’s the obvious $$ savings from not selecting Crews or Skenes. (ETA - I doubt that means they’ll repeat what the Astros did with Carlos Correa and pay overslot later in the draft for anyone who falls that far).
Again, only my two cents here…
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I don’t expect them to be more in on prep players vs college. That’ll just be BPA. I do think if they’ve got two hitters ranked more or less the same and one’s an infielder and one’s an outfielder, they’ll probably go with the infielder. But odds are somebody they like will drop to them and that’ll make the decision for them.
I assume the strategy is BPA as well. How that will be evaluated, I don’t know. I would think it would be someone who is still available at #28. However, Brown showed with the Braves that he’s willing to take guys he values more than other organizations (e.g. Michael Harris II, Spencer Strider). Certainly will be interesting.
Keith Law’s latest mock has the Astros taking LSU RHP Ty Floyd, of recent CWS fame.
Nobody helped himself more in Omaha than Floyd, who showed that he could go through some of the best lineups in college baseball with his unhittable fastball. The Astros immediately ended up linked to him, in part because GM Dana Brown was overseeing the draft in Atlanta when that club took Spencer Strider and his unhittable fastball. I’ve mostly heard the Astros with college players – Joe Whitman has come up, Colton Ledbetter earlier this spring.
I think all the players “linked” to Houston til now had been position players, but there’s no reason to think a pitcher isn’t just as likely. So Floyd and Whitman (Kent State LHP) are a couple of arms to keep an eye on in rounds 1 & 2. Ledbetter fits the mold of the “college OF model darling” but I’m still riding my hunch that they’ll shy away from outfielders in the first round.
Keith Law has his latest mock draft out at The Athletic today and pegs the Astros to RHP Ty Floyd from LSU (great fastball that misses bats; secondary pitches are average at best and need some work).
Floyd has a fair bit of helium after his performance in the CWS, which Law likens to what happened when Dana Brown chose Spencer Strider.
ETA - you can also just read @moriarty post above for a more detailed breakdown!!
You’d have to think it won’t be a LHH OF
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Two more mocks today:
28. Astros — Ty Floyd, RHP, Louisiana State This would give Louisiana State three first-round picks and put it in fairly exclusive company. It sounds like the Astros really like Floyd’s riding four-seam fastball, which averaged around 19 inches of induced vertical break from a lower release point this spring. He generated a 29% miss rate with the pitch this year and also ended the season on a high note with 17 strikeouts in eight innings in the College World Series against Florida. College pitching falls off in a big way once Hurston Waldrep is off the board and Floyd has a decent chance to be the next player selected from that demographic. If the Yankees pass on Stafura he could be a fit in this spot. Walker Martin, Bryce Eldridge and Ralphy Velazquez could be other names that fit.
-Dart Throw Later Picks: SS Avery Ortiz
28. Houston Astros — Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest They’ve been tied to Stafura and Martin as they seem to be looking in the upside position-player bucket, but I’m not sure their top options get here. I think this would also set them up to take bolder upside swings at later picks.
ESPN has Floyd going at 24 to Atlanta. He has just flown up the boards since the CWS.
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One more from Keith Law:
28. Houston Astros– Yohandy Morales, 3B, Miami Everyone thinks they’ll take Floyd if he even gets here, knowing GM Dana Brown’s preference for college pitchers with great fastball characteristics, and if he’s not I believe they’ll go to the college ranks regardless.
Law has Floyd going 17 to Baltimore.
Fangraphs has Houston taking Ty Floyd, saying:
Floyd has the vertical fastball/breaking ball attack Houston covets and there are basically no college arms left.
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I liked what I saw from the Miami 3B, and the Wake 3B, and the LSU pitcher, in the postseason.
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So much buzz there. FG also mentions Oklahoma State RHP Juaron Watts-Brown as a possibility. I think that’s the first time I’ve seen his name.
The Wake 3B reminds me a bit of Drew Gilbert
Great stuff @moriarty !! I’m seeing more and more chatter about Floyd as well, although I have a hard time believing he’ll be available when the Astros pick at #28. Of course, there’s always one or two guys who fall farther than expected in the first round.
There was also some chatter recently about Chase Davis (OF, Arizona), who really impressed at the MLB Draft Showcase - athletic enough for CF and a VERY loud bat.
For the Astros second pick, I’ve seen a few interesting names have pop up recently:
Grayson Hitt - RHP, Alabama
Hunter Hollan - LHP, Arkansas
Mac Horvath - 3B, UNC
Hitt had TJ surgery earlier this year, but was one of the best college arms coming into the draft and a likely first round pick. Hollan had minor knee surgery about a month ago and (fwiw) says he’s undecided about turning pro or going back to school. Horvath by most accounts is average to above average defensively with a power bat, but also has plenty of swing and miss issues.
All that being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Astros play it “safe” in the first round, especially if they really are in on Floyd and he’s not available, and make some big picks in the later rounds.
As always, my proverbial two cents.
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Hitt definitely sounds interesting. Looking back at the Brown’s 2022 draft for Atlanta, he took injured pitchers in rounds 2 and 7 (going way over slot for the latter). Could absolutely see him doing the same this year if the right buy-low guy is there.
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Drafting injured arms is a high risk high reward strategy that might be what the system needs - i.e. a potential influx/depth of high end talent which otherwise might not have been available.
Also, Mayo dropped his “penultimate” mock draft a couple of days ago and still has the Astros taking Yohandy Morales #28. Interestingly, Ty Floyd was nowhere to be found in his first round or compensation round picks.