One guy was right, the other 15 people were wrong. Yay.
BA ranked him #57 in the class but many expected him to go in the late 20s-30s. Analytical models ranked him way higher than that. The aforementioned twitter rando had him #8 in the class under the model he built.
BA’s writeup on him:
During the 2023 season Matthews became the first player in Nebraska history to hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases. He had a solid season in 2022, when he hit .261/.379/.476 with seven home runs, but made impressive adjustments during his draft year while drawing heavy scouting attention. Scouts marvel at the athleticism and tool set he brings, which can impact a game in multiple ways. A righthanded hitter with a 6-foot, 190-pound frame, Matthews destroyed pitches in almost every quadrant of the strike zone, and his loose, lightning-quick set of hands generated exit velocities up to 113 mph. Most of his heavy damage is to the pull side, but he has shown the ability to drive the ball the other way on pitches out and over the plate. Defensively, Matthews has the ability to stay at shortstop long term. He has the range, quickness and requisite arm strength for the position. He did commit 21 fielding errors this season and had a .900 fielding percentage, so if he’s not able to improve his consistency at the next level, scouts have considered him as a potential center fielder, where his above-average speed, arm, instincts and range could all translate nicely. With an up-the-middle profile and power/speed combination, he’s put himself into top-three rounds consideration.
And incidentally, Matthews is a local boy (Atascocita).
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Baseball America’s Peter Flaherty says: “The Houston Astros have selected IF Brice Matthews. Athletic freak and data darling. Exploded this spring and hit .359 with 11 2B, 20 HR, and 20 SB. Lightning-quick hands and plus power to the pull side. Multiple EVs > 110 mph. Plus runner w/high ceiling.”
The analytics guys I follow are in love with this pick. They also loved Gilbert last year. Seems like a great start for the Dana Brown era.
Lord knows who’ll be there for their next pick at 61, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they saved a little money on the Matthews pick too.
Per Keith Law:
The power itself is real, but it comes from a dead-pull approach where he looks for the ball down, which has left him vulnerable to fastballs, particularly up in the zone. He’s an excellent athlete and plus runner who would probably be able to move to center if he can’t stick at short, so he offers some floor where he should play a premium defensive position or could serve as a utility player who can fill in across the infield and in center. The hit tool is a real concern, probably projecting to a 45 at best, but the power, defense and positional value might help it all play.
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Is it possible Brown sees him as a CF now?
Very. They announced him as a SS and will probably give him every chance to develop there, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he sees regular time in the outfield too. You never know what the big club will need by the time he’s ready.
FWIW - Somebody (Edward Sutelan) @ SN
- Grade: D+
This is by far the biggest reach of the draft so far. Brice Matthews has plenty of power in his bat, and he is a fast baserunner, giving him clear 20/20 potential. But the concern with Matthews is that his hit tool still requires some development, and he doesn’t have the luxury of time like many of the prep bats with hit tool concerns. He also is likely to have to move off shortstop in the pros, giving him an uncertain defensive future. The upside is certainly tantalizing, but he likely could have been drafted much lower.
Based on his evaluations I think he’s just comparing draft position to BA’s pre-draft ranking and grading the picks accordingly. The three D-grades are for picks made by the Astros, Rays and Dodgers. Yeah I’m sure those teams don’t know what they’re doing.
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Floyd goes to the Reds at 38. Yohandy Morales, Walker Martin, Sammy Stafura still undrafted. Wonder if Martin or Stafura are falling due to their price tags, maybe they’ve cut deals with teams that went under-slot in round one.
I hope they see him as an IF first
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Thank you.
All these guys went off the board in round 2 before the Astros’ pick. And that pick is…
6’8” UCLA RHP Alonzo Tredwell. BA ranked him #64 in the class so this is right around where you’d expect him to go. Their report:
Tredwell was one the top prep pitchers in his class as an underclassman at Mater Dei (Santa Ana, Calif.) High, but he missed his junior year after having Tommy John surgery and didn’t pitch his senior year. He returned to the mound as a UCLA freshman in 2022 and impressed in relief before moving into the Bruins rotation this spring as a draft-eligible sophomore. He went 4-2, 3.57 with 51 strikeouts and 12 walks in 45.1 innings before back and rib injuries ended his season. Tredwell is one of the tallest pitchees in the draft class at 6-foot-8, 230 pounds and is an imposing presence on the mound. His fastball sits 92-93 mph and touches 95 with excellent carry through the top of the zone. He complements his fastball with a 12-to-6 curveball in the upper 70’s that has plus potential, an above-average, low-80s slider with tilt and depth and a developing changeup that has average potential. Tredwell has excellent body control and repeats his delivery despite his long levers. He has plus control of his four-pitch mix and shows a good feel for mixing and matching his arsenal. Tredwell is a second-rounder on talent, but his medical history is concerning with elbow and back injuries already on his ledger. He projects to be a back-end starter if he can stay healthy.
The Tredwell pick reminds me a little of 2011 Astros 3rd rounder Jack Armstrong, a 6’7” RHP with an injury history who closed for an elite college program (Vanderbilt). Armstrong signed but never threw a pitch in the Astros system as injuries derailed his career, so let’s hope this one works out better.
One of BA’s guys describes Tredwell’s fastball as a “true invisiball.” Go figure. I can’t imagine what a riding fastball looks like coming from a 6’8” hurler.
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Having not seen Tredwell at all, maybe once, I’ll say that his writeup above gives me flashbacks of Jason Hirsch. Giant guy, I thought he was going to be something for us, but he nibbled and decided to throw sinkers to contact constantly, and he never figured out how to pitch up and down in the zone. Then he went to Colorado, iirc, and that was that.
Ooh yeah, I forget about Hirsh. You have to wonder what he could’ve become with the development staff the org has today.
I was talking about Matthews last night with a buddy and he made an interesting comparison. Between the athleticism, pull-side power, good eye, but contact/hit tool questions, he kind of profiles like if George Springer played infield. That’s obviously an optimistic outlook—I don’t think Matthews could match Springer’s best seasons with the bat—but there are real similarities.
Chandler Rome has a nice write up on Matthews in the Athletic.
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played at Astros Urban Youth Academy starting at age 9.
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played outfield in high school, only recently (2 yrs) started playing SS.
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made some improvements in pitch recognition this past year and just starting to show some power by getting more barrel to bat.
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The draft resumes at 1 central. A couple stray thoughts:
- Matthews strikes me as the same kind of choice the Astros would’ve made in the Click days. I say that mostly based on who seemed to like Matthews and who thought he was a third-round kind of guy. Teams like the Astros, Brewers, Yankees, and Rays are in love with the “good swing decisions” + “good exit velocity” kind of hitter. Gilbert last year was one of those players. Matthews fits the mold as well.
- Tredwell also seems like someone they would’ve liked last year, but I frankly don’t know enough about him to say. Would need to hear more about the pitch mix and fastball shape.
- Of course, the Astros’ scouting and analytics staff are mostly unchanged from last year. They’ve been following these players for years and their preferences wouldn’t change just based on the GM. But Brown was hired based on his scouting acumen so it’s interesting to see him in (apparent) harmony with the Astros’ existing way of doing things. Personally, I’m happy to see it.
- Matthews at 28 obviously shows how little consensus means to Brown and to the Astros. They like the guys they like. Sometimes bucking consensus means you get Korey Lee or Delino DeShields Jr. It can also mean you get Carlos Correa. Sometimes taking a consensus guy means you get Jio Mier or Mark Appel or JB Bukauskas. It can also mean you get George Springer or Kyle Tucker. You can’t worry too much about where guys are ranked, especially nowadays when teams vary so much in their approach to the draft.
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I will in no way question the picks the Astros made. Brown and the organization have forgotten more baseball than I’ll ever know, and you can’t argue with Brown’s draft record. But I will say I was hoping we would have taken Yohandy Morales, the third baseman from Miami, FL with that first pick. I’m not convinced we resign Bregman and give him the kind of dollars he’s gonna want.
Astros amateur scouting director Kris Gross seems to think so:
“We think he’s got the athleticism to cover a lot of ground at shortstop,” Gross said. “It’s a little bit new for him — he was an outfielder mainly in high school, played second base at Nebraska his freshman year. Only two years at shortstop, (but) we like the range, he’s got the arm strength to do it and we think that’s his long-term future.”
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I love Bregman and so does my son (his favorite player), but I’m not sure anyone is going to give him ridiculous money at this point.
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