He may consider himself Babe Ruth, for all I know. And it’s not impossible for him to have a HOF career. He may go on to hit 70 home runs for the next 10 years straight. But he’ll be 30 next season, and he’d have to suddenly turn into a completely different player. Nothing in his history, or observed talents, suggest he’s anywhere near that level. He’s just not as good as a lot of people make him out to be. He’s just not.
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I would just say he’s not as good as he was in 2018 and 2019.
His OPS was .926 and 1.015 in those 2 years.
In the 4 seasons since he hasn’t sniffed that level.
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And my GUESS is that he will play closer to that level next season and some big market team will offer him money like he has always played at that level and will until 2034.
Hope if this comes to pass he leaves with three rings with the astros, the exact number of ponies that give him optimal joy, and the thanks of a grateful city.
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The Astros are a big market team at this point and among the top spenders in the sport. This isn’t Drayton McLane’s Astros anymore.
Also, Bregman will be 31 in the 2025 season, so I doubt he gets a 10-year deal from any organization.
This is something else that puzzles me…this belief that the Astros are penny-pinchers and won’t spend money. If the last 10 years haven’t demonstrated that the Astros are willing to go get the talent they think they need to be competitive, I’m not sure what else will convince you.
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Only way Bregman will get into the Hall of Fame is if he buys a ticket. Currently the only established 3rd basemen that can sniff a chance are at being enshrined are Arenado, Machado, and Devers. And they still have a lot of work to do.
ETA: I would put Riley and Ramirez ahead of Bregman.
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I’d say your list is accurate. Bregman is the sixth best third baseman in MLB right now.
Arenado and Ramirez are the top two for me.
Ummm. Crane has convinced me he wont overpay for players. Recent years give me lots of reasons to think that someone will offer bregman stupid money.
A friend of a friend was having dinner with Bregman once, and over the course of the dinner Bregman bought a horse.
Alex Bregman owns 8 racehorses, loves racing.
“Baseball and horses have always been in the Bregmans’ blood,” said Sam Bregman, Alex’s father.
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And in this case, Bregman will walk. Just like Springer and Correa before him.
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Fuck. Totally wrong about Bregman having the exact number of ponies that he wants. Totally underestimated his philohippian nature. And great article. Thanks for the link.
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Right, and I’m hoping (not betting) that there won’t be near the interest in Bregman that there was in Correa…unless of course he has a monster season similar to '18 & '19. My theory is he bulked up heading into the 2018 season and that the extra muscle was too much for his body to handle…hence all the missed games in '20 & '21. He then found the sweet spot in terms of what his body could handle and still allow him to stay on the field. It’s worked in terms of staying on the field but at diminished performance on offense.
I hope there’s exactly as much interest in Bregman as there was in Correa. Makes him easier to keep around.
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There really wasn’t much interest in Correa at his inflated years/price when he left the Astros. He had to sign a 1 year deal with Minnesota in ‘22. He finally got 6 years/$200mm from Minnesota the next season, which was very close to what Houston offered him in the first place.
I believe Bregman will be offered a very competitive salary if he wants to stay in Houston.
I remember film of him pulling a rolling weight like a plowhorse. You’d think Tiger Woods’ stint at Seal training would be a deterrent to bulking up.
There are many other object lessons in Tiger’s life to work through so he may not have gotten there yet.
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I don’t think that Bregman is a HOF player, but I do think that he has done enough through age 29 to not be out of the running.
He would need more than 5 more seasons, probably 7+ at his current production to even be a candidate, but I don’t see it as impossible.
He has played 6 full seasons and 2 partial seasons (2016 and 2020) and has 35.4 bWAR.
Only 10 HOF 3rd basemen have 70+ bWAR and the average of the 16 members is 68.4.
His average is 5.5 bWAR per 150 games.
If he could keep that level for 7 more seasons 2024-2030 then he would have the 9th best bWAR in MLB history for a 3B (73.9), 3.8 more than Scott Rolen.
Again I’m not saying he is a hall of famer, or even on his way. I’m saying he has not been eliminated yet.
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That is a very fair assessment.
This response isn’t to you in particular.
But if the argument is so and so can do such and such as long as they reverse a 4 year trend and sustain that for 7 or 8 years then such and such ain’t gonna happen.
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He’d need 5-7 more like he has been to be up there with Josh Donaldson, not Mike Schmidt.
I don’t how many would be in the HOF if threshold were Mike Schmidt, but a lot less for sure.
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