2021 roster

I realize that WAR is not a perfect stat ( as if there is one) but at least it does include all statistical facets of a players value.

Here are the leaders in Astros history in games per bWAR

  1. Correa 23.0
  2. Bregman 23.9
  3. Bagwell 26.9
  4. C. Everett 27.8
  5. Springer 28.9

Among position players with at least 250 games played.

If Carlos can get in 150-160 games in one season, no doubt he will be in the mvp conversation. Let’s just hope it is with Houston. Would really like to see us lock him up before he gets into free agency but I doubt that will happen.

I’m not familiar with that stat. I’m assuming the lower number is better?

bWAR is Wins Above Replacement as calculated by Baseball-Reference.com. The higher, the better. I assume this is just a back calculation into a rate based on games played, in which case the lower the better.

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Thanks HH. I’m familiar with WAR but for some reason the “b” in front of it threw me and I thought it was some variable off of the WAR formula.

I should learn not to post before my second cup of coffee.

There is not a standard way to calculate WAR. Numerous publications have their method, but I think, and I’m sure others will correct me if I’m wrong, it comes down mostly to two widely referenced methods. One is a calculation by Fangraphs, referred to as fWAR, and the other is done by baseball-reference and is referred to as bWAR or sometimes rWAR. There are also other methods, such as Baseball Prospectus (WARP) and a method by Jay Jaffe (JAWS) which tries to evaluate a player’s HOF worthiness. They are slightly different calculations of the same idea…basically how good is Player X with respect to the average player at his position.

This is essentially correct except that I would not lump in JAWS. It factors not just WAR but other factors like awards and raw numbers to create a comparison to other Hall of Famers, not to an average or replacement player.

Doesn’t JAWS also factor something like “best seven year stretch” or something like that?

JAWS averages career WAR with the WAR from a player’s best 7-year stretch. It’s designed to limit giving a player too much credit for simple longevity. WAR is a counting stat, so this sort of factors more heavily a player’s peak years. It still counts the career WAR, just sort of normalizes it.

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If I understand the numbers right, it’s not something you can calculate at home? That you just have to take the publication’s number and go with it?

FanGraphs publishes their methodology but I don’t recall if all of the factors are readily available

I’d like to make a run at getting McHugh back in the fold for depth if he’s right. Could help in rotation or the pen.

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Reportedly the Astros have signed former Dodgers’ reliever Pedro Baez. The 32 year old posted a 3.03 ERA for LA in 7 seasons for them and a 1.096 WHIP.

Pitch usage and velo over last 4 seasons per his Fangraphs page (always an awesome resource):

  • FB velo decreased from 97.2 to 94.4 and he decreased usage of it from 72.7% to 42.2%
  • He increased his CU usage from 10.6% to 35.9% during that span
  • Started using his SL a bit more as well with a 16.7% usage in 2017 versus 21.9% last season

Looks like a $6-7MM AAV on his 2 year contract…

Not a reliever that I had at the top of my list but he is plenty experienced in some key situations. That’s a huge plus. Fastball velo and strikeouts dropped this past season but hopefully that was due to the strange COVID season issues. Hoping he rebounds to prior year velos with a full and regular spring training.

One other guarantee with Baez. Our games in which he pitches just got 5 minutes longer. :joy:

Baez’s teammate on the LAD from 2015 onwards…

With the signing of Baez, we are now full up on the 40 man if I’m not mistaken. Since we need at least one, if not two outfielders, not to mention back of the rotation pitching depth, some deal making may be in order.

I’m guessing with the signing of Stanek and Baez we are done with bullpen additions???

I hope we still are in on Hand.

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Me too. Can’t believe we didn’t claim him when we had the chance.

Baez deal is 2 years with a guaranteed $12.5M. There is a 500K signing bonus and successive salaries of $4.5M and $5.5M. Option for third year at $7.5M with a $2.5M buyout. There are other incentives as well.

The buyout sans escalator clauses is $2MM so that’s how you get to the guarantee of $12.5MM ($500K + $4.5MM + $5.5MM + $2MM).

So the AAV on the contract is $6.25MM. And if you’re in to this type of thing, Spotrac has already updated the Astros CBT payroll for 2021 which is now at $182MM (which is the 5th highest payroll after the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets and Red Sox).

Spotrac 2021 CBT Payroll Tracker for All 30 MLB Teams