I peek at the in-game win probability changes sometimes as an amusement more than anything since they are comical. So, with 11 games left in the season, I thought I’d crowdsource the win probability of the Astros winning the division here based solely on how we feel. Just for fun.
I’ll start the bidding:
Astros win probability: 0.000001%
75%
4%.
48.7%
50% of the time, they’ll win it every time
They either will or they won’t. So, 50%
25%
Normally I’d say below 10% but honestly, there’s still a real possibility that the AL West winner will be at or below .500. So I think 50/50 is pretty spot on.
So, the current spread is 4% thru 75% with 11 games to go. Sounds about right. Will be interesting to see how it changes with each win/loss. Or each injury announcement. Or each change in the weather. Or how much beer has been consumed.
Personally, I give us one chance in three.
-Marko Ramius
Funny, I had just thought of that quote.
If we meet the right sort (of teams), this could work.
But if we me some sort of…buckaroo?
One ping.
I would have liked to see the postseason.
I know these books, Ryan. Your conclusions were all wrong. Espada acted stupidly.
It is wise to study the ways of one’s adversary.
Espada: Huh?
This is like a Schrödinger’s Cat pondering. Until the inevitable ending of the season is reached and observed, winning the division, the league championship, and the world series are in a state of being both decayed and not decayed; consequently, the Astros are theoretically in a superposition of being both alive and dead simultaneously.
There’s an Astros WS Ring in the box
“They’ve done studies you know. 60% of the time it works every time.”
-Brian Fantana
Stings the nostrils.
It’s a formidable scent.