I tend to agree with you, which is why I’m willing to bet you a plug nickel they will reach an agreement before the hearing.
Who is Kyle Tucker’s best comp?
Is it Mookie Betts? Both play right and are good to great in all aspects of the game.
Betts OPS+ his 3 seasons leading up to arbitration were: 117, 133, 108.
Tuckers: 124, 147, 128.
Betts 3 arb salaries were: $10.5M, $20M, and $27M
I think the Astros very well could lose at $7.5M, especially considering salaries have only risen since.
I don’t think the Astros have a prayer in the arb hearing against Tucker.
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Betts also finished 2nd and 6th in MVP voting in the 2 years before his 1st arb negotiation, then finished 1st and 8th the next 2 years.
Most projections I have seen were in the $5.3 - $5.7M range for Tucker.
I think if they had offered $5.5M they very well could have won but not at $5.0M.
I hope they settle.
Better yet I’m thinking an extension. Something like 8/$210 or $10/$270
I know it won’t happen
But if you look at Betts’ arb salaries then him getting a 12/$365 deal that covered his age 28-39 seasons then it looks reasonable especially in this market of rising salaries.
And I think Tucker still has another level.
I understand that but half of that is a popularity contest.
Where would Tucker be in the voting if he was the best player on the team at the same OPS+ numbers?
On the field Betts is not much better. Certainly not twice the salary better.
I may be wrong, but it seems that when they do go to arbitration the Astros pretty much take whatever the ruling is in stride and avoid acrimony.
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2 seasons before arb1: Tucker WAR 9.9, Betts WAR 15.3 (and Betts put up a 9.1 WAR the season before those 2)
Haven’t they lost most of the recent cases that have gone to arbitration? I know they won against Castro but lost against Cole and Correa. Can’t remember any others.
Well, they kind of have to take the ruling in stride. There is nothing they can do to protest the ruling. The acrimony can come when you don’t avoid the hearing. You have to lay out, with the player sitting right there most of the time, why they aren’t worth what they are asking for. That doesn’t sit well with many players and it can start the bridge burning. Best to try and avoid the hearing. I think they will with Javier. Not sure with Tucker.
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I see that but I don’t know what composition of it is.
I know that Tucker is a very good baserunner and fielder and his OPS and OPS+ were better than Betts.
So why did Betts have so much more WAR? Opportunity. (don’t forget Tucker is penalized by 2020 short season)
Betts:1897 PA and 4025 innings in the field
Tucker: 1259 PA and 2636 innings in the field
Betts 18.3 fWAR
Tucker 11.0 fWAR
Betts: 1 fWAR ever 103.7 PA
Tucker: 1 fWAR every 114.5 PA
Betts: 1 fWAR every 219.9 inning
Tucker: 1 fWAR every 236.6 inning
They are very very similar.
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You might want to take it up with the teams and agents.
Betts 2018 offered/asked: 7.5M/10.5M
Tucker 2023 offered/asked: 5M/7.5M
I’ll add that I have no idea how much average 1st year arb salaries have increased over that span.
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All I am saying is that the Astros will probably lose this hearing and the Astros $5.0M offer is likely too low.
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The fact that the Astros are loaded with LH corner OF prospects may have something to do with their
reticence about extending Tucker long-term at this time. Something like five of their top 10 prospects according the BA are Barber, Dirden, Gilbert, Clifford and Melton. All LH hitters.
Javier should concern you much more. Very talented and, now, seasoned. Could be their ace for the next 5-6 years.
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No idea who this source is but Miami has been rumored as one of the fits for Yuli if he doesn’t land back in Houston.
Chapman to KC on a one year deal.
We’ve had a lot of fun over the years at his expense.
Let’s have some more:
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Got to be a few drops left in that gas can…
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ICYMI, Arraez got traded to the Marlins today for pitcher Pablo Lopez + prospects…
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Wondering if this deal might have pissed a little in Yuli’s Miami Cheerios? Maybe we get one more shot at him now.