The opening farewell

Seems like they said he was going to make a run at Cole too though. I hope they can bring Correa back but I’m not getting my hopes up.

Crane didn’t have a “Astro Fan For Life” sign

Yeah, there’s no way Correa does an interview after the final postseason game “as a representative of himself.”

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No one is the monumental douchebag that Cole is.

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Ah, I knew there had to be a reason.

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True!

But I have to wonder if he will consider

  • Cole & Springer chasing the big bucks and WATCHING the playoffs
  • if he will ever have the protection of teammates like Jordan & Yuli in front of him and Tucker behind him IN the playoffs

The balance between personal ego needs and the contribution to team achievement. USA Today ranked the greatest NBA players on Wednesday. Wilt Chamberlain was number five; Bill Russell number ten. Each got what they wanted.

I wonder if they did?

How much is enough?

What difference does a higher “score” or sense of “worth” ($200 mil - $300 mil) actually make, other than having bigger barns w/ more trinkets, cars, & houses?

How long will it last?

I know I’m old school: love seeing Bags & Pig Pen watching the playoff games, one sitting behind the other… (Would love for that to be Altuve & Correa someday, but NOT if this means the Astros become like the Yankees - and Astros fans looking/acting like Yankee fans…)

Of course you’re right, but there’s definitely an aspect of measuring up to other players here. If Lindor gets $$$, Correa wants $$$ + 1 to start with.

“Don’t be so greedy” is a good message, but if it’s coming from an MLB owner (or pretty much any CEO), it’s pretty hollow.

I think the reluctance to give a 10 year deal is well founded. I don’t blame Correa for wanting to be paid what he is worth, either. I hope they retain him. Maybe Crane can be creative in terms of front loading his contract so he can average above market $ in the first few years of the deal with his salary declining and/or a player option after 4, or 5 years. Correa’s agent can point to the total dollar amount as a win. Correa can still get to the market in his prime if he is still producing, while still having the security and playing with a great team. It’s not an easy decision for either party.

The market has a way of resetting itself. Year 1 of Lindor at his number was a colossal bust. The best player in the game made his Angels extension painful in year 1. Certainly Bryce Harper played up to his number this season but not sure Yankees got full value back in Cole. Hell, Alex’s deal that looked team friendly turned into 11 HRS and 0 wheels. I would even argue that as good of a year Carlos had on the field, he was outperformed by Polanco in MN who will be lucky to get a 5-$15 contract.

But … Carlos 7.2 WAR isn’t the reason for an overpay. Carlos is the rarest entity in sport and in life: a Captain who truly is the Captain. You don’t overpay Carlos for his production. You overpay Carlos for the production that he enables in his teammates - from Altuve to Valdez, from Bregman to Gurriel.

Maybe the Astros cease to be the center of opponent fan anger next season. But if not, who is going to be the guy that cups his ear and says bring it to me? Who is the guy that you want in a clutch situation in September and October. Alex Rodriguez was saying $400,000,000 man. I just don’t see that. But $300,000,000 is very real possibility. Which makes the question – how much would you pay to make every guy on the team better?

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Trying to structure a smart business deal for Correa is bullshit. Pay whatever it takes to keep him. He is not an ordinary star player. He is the heart and true leader of this team.

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And while it’s nice to believe that “the market has a way of correcting itself,” there’s literally no evidence of that occurring in the free agency era of MLB. If you can find me a good example, I’m willing to be open-minded about it but the evidence suggests that as long as there are owners who are willing to throw stupid money at the top free agent or free agents on the market then the curve will always trend upward. That’s why we find ourselves talking about $300 to 400 million men.

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At first I thought that the market maybe took a slight stutter-step during the 2018-2019 offseason, when there were a number of high-profile FA holdouts. I had forgotten that Harper and Machado both signed $300 million contracts that offseason. Since then we’ve seen four more $300 million contracts, one $400 million contract, and a total of ten contracts with $30+ million AAV.

There’s no market reset in sight. The next free agent is always looking to leapfrog the last, then they’ll get leapfrogged by the next, etc. etc.

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That well-worn principle is a fallacy.

We are not dealing with a normal marketplace. It is a market with only 30 buyers, each of which is unfathomably wealthy and ego-driven and willing to drive up the price of the next bauble so they can flaunt it to the other buyers. Until the television contracts crash, the only restraining force is the salary cap, which MLPBA will gladly allow them to raise.

Not sure I understand. Limiting the number of buyers is a downward pressure on costs, not upward. And there are maybe 5 owners who’d want to raise the cap. MLBPA will have to fight tooth and nail for even a modest increase.

It’s a difficult market to gauge, though, because only a small number of those buyers is actually trying to win, and among those who are trying to win, only so many of them need a shortstop, and only so many of that group have the wherewithal to spend in excess of $300MM on a player.

Carlos will certainly receive a contract that is far, far larger than anything the Astros have yet offered, but I’m still not convinced it will be Lindor type money. I could be very wrong, though, obviously.