I wasn’t referring to anyone in particular. I just now realize how easy it is to say something like that in defense of your team, and how absurd it is from the outside, even if it’s true.
Meanwhile, from the Department of Laugh-Out-Loud Hypocrisy…
Pete Rose chides Astros over sign-stealing scandal: ‘I can’t imagine doing something like that’
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If we’ve lost Rose, we’ve lost pathological liars/gamblers/predators everywhere.
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If the Astros did indeed identify eight other clubs stealing signs electronically, and if Luhnow is so toxic and out of baseball for good, he would be a good canary to start with.
Colleges need to pay their players. Until they do, every team will cheat.
Similarly, MLB needs to give their pitchers and catchers a secure method of communication (earpiece?) if they don’t want this to happen.
As HH pointed out, this has been going on forever. It wasn’t a priority for MLB into some sanctimonous reporters drummed up some outrage.
And now MLB has opened up a can by punishing one/few teams for something all of them do. Where do they stop?
I get all of that, but that doesn’t help me justify it any better.
That can be true, and it can also be true that this was an unforced error. Right now I’m more mad at Cora and the players involved than I am at MLB or any reporters because when the edict came down to cut the shit, they didn’t. That may change if the Red Sox, as repeat offenders, don’t get an equal or worse punishment, but I just can’t buy into the “we’re getting picked on because people don’t like us” narrative yet.
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I think many, if not most, here fall into the camp of holy crap what a stupid, reckless thing to do (apply any other adjectives you like). The Astros, players, manager, coaches, FO brought this on themselves.
My own take is the post-Taubman smearing of the SI reporter (apologies for not recalling her name) understandably made the media somewhere between unsympathetic to aggressive in their reporting on the reporting. But there was definitely something to report.
I also believe whole heartedly that Manfred wanted this to be a one and done. Chop their heads off and let that be a warning to the rest of you. I doubt Manfred had it in for the Astros before this. He’s just wielding the power of his office. I also do not believe for one second that he or any other commissioner of any sport gives a shit about due process or the concept of justice. He will do what baseball’s constitution allows. Periods. Such as concluding a 3 month investigation with a report detailing a player driven cheating scheme yet punishing only the manager, GM, and the club (a punishment whose full effect possibly won’t be felt by any player currently on the roster). Ultimately, though, he issued a warning in late 2017, it was brazenly ignored, and here we are.
As for the rest of the world, in their eyes we’re cheaters. No, not just the Astros. Us. The fans too. Guilt by association. Their righteous indignation is of course foolhardy. When there’s competition people cheat. Not right. Should not be accepted. Should be policed. But it happens. The Russians juiced their curling team for goodness sakes. So while we’re busy ducking rocks thrown from people in glass houses and stamping out burning bags of poo excuse those of us who hope the light gets turned on to other teams who have done the something similar.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m one of those people too. But I also know that a fully comprehensive investigation is less likely than a smaller number of teams being made examples of. Hopefully it’s more than just one.
I hold out little hope MLB wil be aggressive.
That’s why I hope Rosenthal keeps looking under rocks. Particularly pinstriped ones.
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Blockquote
Here here on all counts, BigD.
I abhor Waldo’s takes. Selective enforcement is bullshit. Punish everyone, dammit. I also hope Rosenthal will not stop.
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The idealist in me wants the same. Since this is out of my control, the pragmatist/realist in me will settle for something less.
like blinders on a horse don’t look left or right just ignore everything else going on but what you want to see
So how long before the first player who wants his manager fired starts stealing signs with his Apple Watch?
That’s too long.
from Stros411:
For this little study we used June 2017 as the line in the sand day. Based on the reports that is apparently when Beltran either refined the system, or introduced it. And since we dont know the date, the numbers are split March - May and then July - September. These are overall numbers as I can not do these analytics home and away.
For this, we are using Pitch Type Linear Weights per 100 pitches (w/FB/C). This is the calculation on how a team or player performs above average vs a certain pitch type extrapolated out to 100 pitches. 0 is an average performer based on league average. A positive number is above average and a negative number is below average.
Astros Pre June -
BB% - 8.5%
K% - 18%
OPS - .811
wRC+ - 119
wFB/C - 1.02
wSL/C - 0.36
wCB/C - 0.2
wCH/C - 0
Chase Rate - 29.2%
Chase Contact - 65.9%
Astros Post June -
BB% - 7.9%
K% - 17.2%
OPS - .818
wRC+ - 120
wFB/C - 0.62
wSL/C - 0.82
wCB/C - 1.32
wCH/C - 0.58
Chase Rate - 29.6%
Chase Contact - 70.4%
Difference after system?
BB% - 7% worse
K% - 4% better
OPS - 1% better
wRC+ - 1% better
wFB/C - 39% worse
wSL/C - 128% better
wCB/C - 560% better
wCH/C - Infinite better
Chase Rate - 1% worse
Chase Contact - 7% better
Conclusion…
The astros became MUCH better off speed pitch hitters after June. There is no denying that. Oddly enough, became much worse at hitting the fastball. This is purely my speculation, but may point to the distraction point as the last thing you want is any distraction when a 98 MPH heater is coming your way.
However, the raw overall numbers are so marginal and can be attributed to so may different things. That it is pretty easy to see that the astros really were not a better hitting team overall once this system was put in place. 1% improvement on weighted runs created is nothing, one player getting hot for a month can cause that for a team.
Rosenthal got who he wanted. I expect Boston to get less than Houston. And I expect the Yankees to not even be bothered with an investigation. But for whoever said they didn’t think Manfred had an eye for smacking the Astros, I think there were reasons he might have. Including Verlander exposing that MLB had bought Rawlings, to a lot of the world, and riddling out loud to the media if they were juicing balls for ratings. That did not set well in the MLB offices. There are other things too. The Taubman thing was just the straw that broke the camel’s back most likely.
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Those are interesting numbers though I would compare them to other seasons to if those are big shifts or not (as an aside, “% increase/decrease” is probably not a good way to compare zero-centered numbers). Players have been stealing signs forever, so I bet some of them benefit from it.