Today is Impeachment Day.
I swing wildly from thinking that he will be convicted in the Senate (as more and more evidence comes out), to expecting him to be acquitted. From thinking that acquittal will tie 239lbs of solid orange muscle around the necks of Senate Republicans, to thinking that they’ll skate as usual. From thinking that outrage over acquittal will be the wind beneath Democrats’ wings, to thinking that an unfettered Trump will reign Russian fire on the election making it impossible for Democrats.
Still, there’s hope in the process. The Senate rules for the trial are set by majority vote, which means that only 4 Republicans need to stand up to ensure that the trial isn’t a sham (as has been threatened by McConnell). There are enough purple-state Republicans up for re-election, plus the likes of Romney who at least pays lip service to the rule of law, to force McConnell into calling witnesses and generally doing it right (Democrats are asking for the same process as Republicans used for Clinton’s trial). Will they though?
If by choice or by majority rule, McConnell allows witnesses, it’s going to be hard to ignore the herd of elephants in the room, being Mulvaney, Bolton, Pompeo, Giuliani and every document subpoenaed by the House that the White House refused to provide (which is all of them).
Polls show that over 70% of the public wants administration staff to testify. Not letting that happen is going to look very cover-uppy. If that happens, it will fall on Democrats to use that in the election to tar every Republican with it.
Still, with all that yet to come, Trump today will become only the 3rd President in history to be impeached, and only the first to be so in his first term. It’s a big fucking deal.