I swing wildly from thinking that he will be convicted in the Senate (as more and more evidence comes out), to expecting him to be acquitted. From thinking that acquittal will tie 239lbs of solid orange muscle around the necks of Senate Republicans, to thinking that they’ll skate as usual. From thinking that outrage over acquittal will be the wind beneath Democrats’ wings, to thinking that an unfettered Trump will reign Russian fire on the election making it impossible for Democrats.
Still, there’s hope in the process. The Senate rules for the trial are set by majority vote, which means that only 4 Republicans need to stand up to ensure that the trial isn’t a sham (as has been threatened by McConnell). There are enough purple-state Republicans up for re-election, plus the likes of Romney who at least pays lip service to the rule of law, to force McConnell into calling witnesses and generally doing it right (Democrats are asking for the same process as Republicans used for Clinton’s trial). Will they though?
If by choice or by majority rule, McConnell allows witnesses, it’s going to be hard to ignore the herd of elephants in the room, being Mulvaney, Bolton, Pompeo, Giuliani and every document subpoenaed by the House that the White House refused to provide (which is all of them).
Polls show that over 70% of the public wants administration staff to testify. Not letting that happen is going to look very cover-uppy. If that happens, it will fall on Democrats to use that in the election to tar every Republican with it.
Still, with all that yet to come, Trump today will become only the 3rd President in history to be impeached, and only the first to be so in his first term. It’s a big fucking deal.
Facts don’t matter anymore, not to the administration, not to the Senate Republicans, and certainly not to their constituents, regardless of how purple a state or district may be. Not only is Trump going to skate in the Senate, but I’m expecting him to get reelected regardless of whatever shit the impeachment proceedings bring to light. There are still too many people who think that he is, at worst, still a better choice than any Democrat.
Biden is the only one that mostly fits that description, but a Biden/Trump election would be a reprise of Upper-Class Twit of the Year: a competition between rich, out of touch, barely coherent dudes, except it’s not funny because the winner gets the nuclear codes.
A generic candidate with Biden’s policies I believe would do well in the general election.
Biden’s trouble is he has a long elected past that is going to bring out his flip/flops on issues, numerous gaffes and his handsy, odd nature with women. Did you see recently what looked as if he nibbled his wife’s finger while she speaks at a campaign event? Is there any reasonable explanation of what that was about?
Sadly I think the big orange Cheetoe is going to easily exploit these weaknesses if he is the candidate. Orange man’s base will not turn on him. Not sure I can say the same for Biden.
I mean, if it comes down to Biden or Trump then I’m #teamNoMalarkey with bells on. But he’s the same establishment-type candidate that alienated Dem voters in 2016, and in the Republicans’ eyes he’s got too much Obama stink on him to get people to cross the aisle. And that is to say nothing of the fact that transcripts of his off-the-cuff remarks are starting to be eerily similar to Trump’s in terms of coherence. Like @TeeJoe said, probably any other Dem with Biden’s approximate platform could be a shoo in for the nomination and possibly even the general election.
I’m hoping Warren wins the nomination. She may not be any more electable than Biden or anyone else, and she’s not without her own dumb gaffes, but she’s the only one I’ve sort of liked. And if Trump gets re-elected, at least less of the blame will be on the Dems for repeating past mistakes.
I’ll vote for the Dem, but Biden or Warren work for me. The far left Dems and Bernie need to STFU and work for the nominee to defeat Trump. Bernie help do Hillary in last time.
A big game of chicken is now about to happen. The trouble is, one side is holding all the cards (and it’s not McConnell).
The Senate Majority Leader is already on record as saying he is not going to be impartial, that he is already coordinating with the White House and that he will usher through a speedy acquittal. The Speaker of the House appears to be signaling that she won’t send the impeachment articles over until she is satisfied that McConnell is not going to do that.
The problem for McConnell is that a speedy acquittal is the worst outcome for Democrats but the only outcome that helps Trump and Republicans. Pretty much anything else helps Trump’s opponents.
For example, the intimated delay can do all kinds of damage to Trump’s defense. Court fights over subpoenas and testimony can be resolved. More incriminating information can come light. Or it just sits there, unresolved, as we move deeper and deeper into the election cycle. Or, in actuality, all these things happen in parallel.
McConnell and Trump need this to be fast. Pelosi just needs it to be fair and thorough, even if it ends in acquittal, because fairness and thoroughness are Trump’s kryptonite.
I like Buttigieg and Yang, although I’m not sure of their electability. I think only Biden and maybe Bernie have a chance to deliver the battleground states that Hillary lost.
Klobuchar has a very good argument about delivering battleground states, in that she’s been elected 3 times in a very swinging state. None of the other candidates - not Bernie, Biden or Warren - have any record on which to base their claims of electability in swing states. They all represent reliably blue states and have neither run nor won for major office anywhere else.
Buttigieg’s claim that he got elected as a “gay dude in Pence’s Indiana” is terribly misleading. He won with (not by) 8,000 votes running for mayor of basically a large college football stadium…while still in the closet. When he ran statewide, he got crushed by 20 points.
None of this is to endorse Klobuchar over the others entirely, but on this topic she has them all beaten by a country mile.
Re: ability to win in battleground states. I don’t think it’s about past experience in a home state, more like who can get the base riled up enough to show up on Election Day.
I just don’t think Amy Klobuchar is that person. Bernie, Biden, and maybe Castro…but Castro’s campaign is all but dead.