For the record, Trump pulled it out of the box, examined it, pulled the front flap down and then placed the device carefully on the table. Upside down.
Texas reported <100 new cases yesterday, while New York reported 279 new deaths.
I trust you are all staying at home wherever you are.
Calm down, America. Houstonās got your back.
Houston Methodist is injecting COVID19 patients with the antibody-rich blood and plasma of recovered patients. Apparently, itās working.
The best thing about this is that the worst-hit areas have the most plentiful supply of antibodies.
CNNās Chris Cuomo (brother of NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo) has tested positive for the virus.
In other news, the use of exponential graphs has grown exponentially in the month of March.
Texas schools officially closed until May 4 (which seems aspirational to me).
Iāll be pleasantly surprised if they return to school before summer.
Global mortality rate rate running at 4%, with 25% of cases resolved (one way or the other). China, who has the most mature data (if itās to be believed), with 97% of cases resolved, saw a 4% mortality rate. Spain and Italy have around 30% of cases resolved and have mortality rates of 9% and 12% respectively.
The US has only 5% of its cases resolved and is seeing a 2% mortality rate.
My fear is that, as US cases are resolved, we will revert to the mean and see a higher mortality rate.
A friend that is an ER nurse told me last week to expect numbers to spike over the next few weeks since testing was now becoming more available.
Texas reported only 98 new cases yesterday, but 280 new cases already today. Yesterday in NY, half of the test results received were positive. HALF.
Alabama schools are not returning this year. Instruction will be done via online resources or learning packets for the remainder of the year.
My wife is an educator and she feels like for K-6, they are just trying to keep kids from losing knowledge rather than gain new material during this time. This is really highlighting the haves and have nots with technology in our state.
The internet should be treated like a utility, not a āserviceā.
I havenāt seen any definitive study on the percent of asymptomatic cases, but everyone is pretty sure that they are there. Maybe in large percentages. Beyond that, there are mildly symptomatic cases who were never tested and never included in the denominator.
Bottom line, mortality rates are highly speculative at this point. We wonāt really know until good antibody sampling is performed.
The curve will not flatten until the US catches up to the rest of the world in testing. That doesnāt mean the efforts are not working to slow down and limit the spread.
This site has the projections people are looking at for hospital beds, ICU beds and so forth. I think itās the most informative thing Iāve seen. NYC is going to be short of everything in the next two weeks.
California has been been fairly under control so far, but canāt keep up with the testing and has 64,000 pending tests.
That model has taken quite a bit of criticism as being much too optimistic. Also, the uncertainty band is not defined. It appears to be the uncertainty associated with a best case scenario; a scenario that depends on the same social distancing measures as deployed in Wuhan. Even today, there is no nationwide policy and even the strictest policies in place are not the same level of restriction as Wuhan.
Also, it only covers the first wave.
Looks like the model Trump is using. Not sure what the inputs are on percent infected and mortality rate. Looking at the numbers, I assume both of those numbers are pretty low.
Regarding the percent infected, I assume that model is based on a pretty significant amount of social distancing. However, the way the numbers drop to almost zero by August is perplexing, either assuming social distancing goes until a vaccine or that the USA can operate in isolation from the World that hasnāt eradicated the virus.
There is something comforting and normal that, in the face of a deadly pandemic, a baseball site will break out into and argument about stats.
Much needed in these trying times.
Texas is accelerating, yesterday adding 370 new cases tester (+26%) and 15 new deaths (+36%).