The NY Times page has an interactive map so you can see where the outbreaks are occurring. Houston’s infection rate remains constant over the last two weeks, but there are random outbreaks around the state and Galveston is seeing a disturbing increase.
The mortality rate is something that isn’t discussed lately, perhaps as everyone focused on the grim milestone of 100,000 deaths. In the US, COVID-19 is killing 6% of confirmed cases. That’s shocking. Brazil is running the same as us while Spain, UK and Italy - the worst-hit European countries - are all around 15%.
Sweden - famously working towards herd immunity by allowing people to contract the virus in a somewhat controlled manner - is suffering a mortality rate of 12%. It has lost 0.04% of its population which, in US terms, is 132,000.
I wish the mortality rate was discussed more. It might make (some) people less blasé about this disease.
Worldometers just did a study of NYC to try to determine the actual mortality rate. They used a rather large antibody test program (which may prove problematic) along with year on year excess death rates to try to determine the actual number of deceased and the actual number of infected.
They came up with 1.4% mortality, which is in line with WHO, Chinese, and South Korean estimates. This would make it more than an order of magnitude worse that the worst flu since 1918. WoM mortality study
NY and NJ have kept their numbers down which has, in turn, kept the national numbers in check. By “in check”, I mean the equivalent of three to four 9-11s per week. However, once the expected reporting lag from the holiday weekend had cleared, it seemed a new pattern might be forming.
California’s stubbornly flat curve has started going up. Almost all of the increase has been in L.A. County with a particular problem area being meat packing plants in Vernon. Orange County has seen a slow but steady increase in hospitalizations and ICU admissions. The decline in Texas’ curve has halted and may be poised for an increase next week.
Elsewhere, COVID 19 looks to go all “Billy T. Sherman” on Dixie. ICUs are overflowing in Montgomery and Mississippi, South Carolina and Arkansas have seen increases. The Ozark Pool Party has yielded its first positive case.
There are two eventualities that must be planned for: There will be a vaccine, or there won’t. Since most of us are not virologist, immunologist or vaccine experts, we can’t do much to help on that front. Even though most of us are not MDs or Clinicians or involved in treating disease, we can plan and act for the very possible scenario that we don’t have a vaccine for years, if ever.
Any effective action against COVID 19 in a future without a vaccine will depend on a population that has a consensus agreement on the existence and seriousness of the disease, a consensus on public behavior such as mask wearing and physical distancing, and a public spirit of common purpose. Public discipline would need to be maintained for extended periods as treatments are developed and proven. Eventually, treatments will become effective enough to relax some requirements, others will need to become ingrained in the culture. Success is possible with a united population and close international cooperation.
I would guess at least three generations before it becomes a flu equivalent disease, at least without sophisticated treatment. I think “herd immunity” may be impossible without a vaccine. Antibodies retained after recovery are likely to be effective no more than two years.
Natural herd immunity did not end the scourge of measles, polio, or smallpox. I don’t think there’s any reason to believe COVID 19 will be any different.
The mayor is talking about requiring masks in public. We are dealing with what Bham dealt with in March and Mobile in mid April. It was our turn, I guess. The bigger issue here is they can’t point to a single source of spread. It appears to be community based and not work site/church/event focused.
PSA: Be careful about generalizations about “Trumpers” in Alabama. When you look at the demographics of Montgomery County, you will see that it likely didn’t go for Trump, in fact with went 61% for Hillary. The issue here is poverty. The neighboring counties (Lowndes, Dallas, Macon, Elmore, and Autauga) have also had increases and don’t have hospitals with the level of care needed. Many rural hospitals have closed down after Alabama didn’t do medicaid expansion. So that exacerbates the Montgomery hospital situation.
Harris County - the state’s most populous county containing its most populous city - seems to have its COVID shit under control. New cases per day for Harris Co. is down to almost zero.
The rest of the state though, is not doing so well.
Looking at the heat map, it seems that Pecos Co. is the big new hot spot. There’s fuck-all out there, so I have to assume that this is being driven by meat-packing plants. The current hot spots are all rural counties and yet they have yanked the curve northwards and may yet eclipse the per day records set when Houston and Dallas were peaking. The terrible thing is that, out there, they don’t have the medical facilities to handle it.
Something odd here. Worldometers has the same number for total cases and total fatalities as the county website but the daily numbers don’t match at all.
