Using cellphone data, national study predicts huge June spike in Houston coronavirus cases
Houston is one of several cities in the South that could see spikes in COVID-19 cases over the next four weeks as restrictions are eased, according to new research that uses cellphone data to track how well people are social distancing.
The updated projection, from PolicyLab at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, found that traffic to non-essential businesses has jumped especially in Texas and Florida, which have moved aggressively to reopen.
In Harris County, the model predicts the outbreak will grow from about 200 new cases per day to more than 2,000 over the next month.
“Some areas—particularly in the South—that have moved more quickly to reopen are showing a higher risk for resurgence,” the researchers wrote in a blog post. “If people in Houston and Palm Beach, Fla., for example, aren’t being cautious with masking in indoor crowded locations and with hygiene and disinfection, local governments may need to intervene again should they lose control of the epidemic.”
Our church here in Austin resumed live, online-only services last week after seven fully pre-recorded services. Our pastor has been weighing whether to reopen with a plan very similar to what that Catholic church used (without requiring masks). We have basically been pleading with him not to do it yet.
The downward trend was almost all due to the likes of NY and NJ passing their peaks and hitting a hard downward trend. This has hidden the increases happening almost everywhere else, but now the latter is starting to show through.
Given what has been learned thus far about transmission, with church choirs being a particularly vulnerable spot, presumably because of the enclosed space, number of people, and singing to project the virus, I wonder if outdoor services may be safer.
I realize Houston is hotter’n’hades but maybe night services or open-air tents. It might be very safe if done along with masks and physical distancing.
I like the ProPublica representation of the trends, by state.
The trend is a mashup of 5 or 6 criterion: Positive tests per 100K people, Percentage of tests that are positive, Tests per 100K people per day, ICU bed availability, Hospital visits for flu-like illness and, if it is the case, the number of days a state has been “opened”. Click on each state trend arrow for the details of the criteria.
Maybe. Our music minister told me that two national choral associations (can’t remember their names) have strongly discouraged any sort of corporate singing in an enclosed space.
Social distancing is of little use for groups of people in an enclosed space for an extended period. Getting people back to church buildings for services is fucking stupid. That’s Trump.
Yep. This article explains the risks of transmissions very well. I’m sure it’s cabrera bait but it’s worth re-reading:
People on the opposite side of a restaurant got infected from an asymptomatic carrier. A single infected officer worker spread the disease to 94 of the 216 employees on the same floor.
A community choir which took social distancing measures still infected 45 of the 60 members.
My thinking is the same way as Jim’s. Outside with social distancing measures is significantly safer than indoor with social distancing measures. If you have to indoors with other (stores, shops, etc), limited exposure plus social distancing and strict hygiene (wash hands before you go in, don’t touch your face, wear a mask, wash you hands before and after you take your mask on and off) reduces the risk significantly. If you want to hang out with a small group of people, are not sick, and are not at high risk, do it outside with plenty of space.
This is 100x more informative than just raw positive tests, which is obviously going to go up as we test more people.
Generally good news for Texas, one of the main goals of staying at home was to keep from overrunning the hospitals, and we are at 32% of available ICU beds. Anyone know what that % was pre COVID?
I went grocery shopping this week. It was pretty ok, but people just can’t bring themselves to social distance at the fish counter. They have to see the salmon.
This is a very likely scenario and must be planned for. Does the limiting metric for social interaction become hospital capacity? Can government at any level apply sufficient social control (and economic support) with sufficient resolution to keep hospitals from overflowing? I am uncertain about the answer, particularly when there’s about a three week lag between action and feedback.
It is unknown how long immunity acquired by natural infection lasts. Does it last long enough for a sufficient percentage of the population to get immunity for there to be a “herd immunity” effect? For example: If it takes four years to infect the required 70+% of the population to get “herd immunity” without overflowing the hospitals (and therefore skyrocketing the fatality rate), but natural immunity only lasts two years, then we would be chasing our metaphorical tail.
Treatment will be the key. Once AIDS was a death sentence, now it’s basically a prescription. When treatment for Covid 19 gets the case fatality rate to below about 0.2% from the current approximately 1.5%, life can return to nearly normal, albeit with a new, significantly large regular cause of death along with heart disease, cancer and the rest.
I’m worried about what this is going to do to access to capital. From here on out, all bankers are going to price in an increased risk of payment interruption or default into their loans, not so much for COVID-19, but in anticipation of the next one. Loans for certain kinds of businesses are likely to get much more expensive. Restaurants, for example, have always been iffy propositions, and it seems like a lot of them aren’t even going to be viable anymore with more expensive loans and mandated lower capacities. Movie theaters? Good luck.
