Trump just shut down Bill Gates’ home testing program that challenged the Abbott “back to work” test with the 50% false-negative rate.
They are writing a script. They control the number who are tested, and they control how many of these tests are returned positive.
More grim milestones as we pass the 1.5 million mark in confirmed cases and past the 90,000 mark in deaths. NY, NJ, and the rest of the Northeast has improved significantly on daily case count and fatalities while in the south and west the case count and spread slowly increase. California did a great job “flattening” the curve, but further reductions have proven elusive and now case counts, and more importantly hospitalizations are on the increase.
We are slightly behind the latest IHME model which forecasts 147,000 deaths by the end of August, but that model has tripled it’s projection over the last few weeks.
My guess is that daily deaths will start rising again in the next few days and get to about 2,500 per day in June. If it gets out of control in big cities again, we could be looking at 3 to 4 K per day. I think we will blow past the IHME numbers by mid July and be around 200,000 dead by the time the “second wave” hits in September.
There’s no national plan how to manage this. Even the last resort of natural herd immunity will have to be carefully managed over years in order to not overrun the hospitals. If well managed, we would still be looking at an absolute minimum of 2.5 million dead to get to 70% immunity. If hospitals are overrun we could see several multiples of that number. With the current state, no national plan, no national criteria, mitigation efforts being actively opposed by the Federal Government, we will see about 500,000 dead by the end of the year.
The virus controls how many people die, and that’s going to be a hard number to hide.
No problem for Trump. Just call the number “fake news.”
The USA has 4% of the world’s population and more than 25% of the reported deaths. Embarrassing and sad.
That’s partly because we have a vibrant, open culture with high mobility, which we’d normally look at as positives. On the flip-side, I’m not sure I trust the counts coming out of a lot of other countries.
It is because a great many Americans have a “you can’t tell me what to do” attitude, even when the “what to do” will help them. So they catch it and spread it because “FREEDOM!”
Disgusting.
One thing I’ve been thinking about a lot lately is the extreme sacrifices that the entire country made for years during WW2. Not just those who fought, but the larger economic, industrial, and societal changes that didn’t return to normal until after the war. If we were asked - or required - to make those same sorts of sacrifices today, for any reason, I truly believe that it would ignite a civil war.
So does Germany, South Korea, Czech Republic, New Zealand, Australia, and many other countries that don’t have near the incidence rate nor case fatality rate of the U.S. All of these countries did have, unlike the U.S., competent leadership.
I absolutely believe that, Waldo. That generation truly was The Greatest, and the generations alive today lack the empathy, self-discipline, and selflessness required to make sacrifices for the common good. Hell, many of them won’t even sacrifice for their own good. Our problems go deeper than our incompetent, evil leadership. Our society lacks a backbone.
I have a question. No motive behind it at all. It just seems most of you are so much better informed.
Some of the deaths reported widely are of people already seriously ill and older. They might not have survived very long anyway. They do get reported as COVID deaths, and they sadly were exposed to severe desease.
Is that a real diagnosis?
I am still struggling with my liver disease, and extremely susceptible to anything. I have very little immunity. I would consider that more prominent than COVID.
BTW, my life hasn’t changed much. I only get out for doctor visits. My wife is out every day (tax season is still very real). I spend all day cleaning just to make sure she isn’t bringing anything home.
Would they have died when they did without COVID?
Trump’s analysis says they were going to die anyway. Too bad.
If one has a bad illness that may kill them in a few years but gets hit by a bus today…the bus killed them. They count deaths by Covid the same way they count deaths by any other cause. There’s no fucking conspiracy.
“Is that a real diagnosis?”
Nah, doctors are making shit up to hurt Trump. Poor baby.
Glad to hear that you’re still hanging in there, ETA!
I don’t have anything to actually add aside from what was previously said. If COVID causes you to die today instead of in a few weeks, COVID still killed you.
Just like if someone had terminal cancer and died of a massive heart attack, the heart attack is cause of death, not cancer.
Thank you all for your responses. I had no political agenda by any means. I was just curious. I will avoid buses when downtown.
Avoid buses and people as much as possible, m’man.
Also a shirt that says “I Farted” may work for a little boost to natural social distancing.
Good plan, ETA! Hang in there, and stay safe.
What if someone is hospitalized with Covid-19 but in the hospital they develop sepsis which causes multiple organs fail and then they die. Covid-19 or sepsis? Glad you’re handing in there ETA.
It would be handled the same way as if the person was in the hospital for any other reason and developed sepsis. Why do you think it would be different?