We may get a good idea of the R0 if BA.5 gets loose in China. At least if the Chinese vaccine is as bad as we’re led to believe.
This is a good primer on the various reproductive numbers and their use.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02009-w
Best I can tell, the usefulness of R naught is only for calculating the proportion of the population that needs to be vaccinated/immune to stop spread when a new virus hops on the scene. We are way past that for COVID and its subvariants.
It is clear that subvariants have remained highly transmissible despite various public health measures and the development of effective therapies. It does seem that Easterman’s backward derivation of R naught from the data of its transmission is not the correct way to determine R naught. Technically, Tex is right in saying no one has disproven the 18.6 number. But, if that turns out to be the right number, it’s just a lucky guess. Easterman has shown his work and the experts are just pointing out he didn’t do it right.
As the Nature article points out, though, the "R"s really are not the end all and be all to the COVID story.
One key point that can’t be emphasized enough is that though folks are still getting infected and the variants have higher Rt, if not R0, the disease caused by the infections are still different between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated. Recall that the vaccines were initially tested for their ability to decrease rate of serious illness and not necessarily prevent infection. That is still the case. Now, with the development of effective therapies, even less people are at risk of developing severe disease. (Keeping my fingers crossed for Joe.)
What would be worrisome is if a subvariant crops up that is both more transmissible and causes severe disease in even the vaccinated. And even worse if such a subvariant is resistant to Paxlovid or Remdesivir.
(Incidentally, with COVID and its subvariants, the press and the scientific community are missing a prime opportunity to point out evolution at work in real time to the skeptics.)
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Forget COVID and measles.
Thanks a fucking lot Jenny McCarthy.
This is not unexpected. Measles cases had dropped to a handful by 2000, prompting the U.S. to declare it eradicated. Cases have exploded in the last decade.
ABC reporting that the infection is a vaccine derived strain and that the patient is no longer contagious.
So you’re saying I’m probably not going to Chengdu anytime soon.
I lost my covid card. I figure I actually misplaced my covid card, and since I now have a new one I’ll immediately find the old one.
The odd thing was getting the new one. I had my boosters from a CVS a couple of blocks away, and I went there to start what I figured was going to be a long and painful ordeal. They asked me if I had a picture of the old card. When I said yes they gave me a blank card and told me to fill it in with the information from the old card.
Done.
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Mine was misplaced late last year and I’ve been unable to get a new one. I did get a certificate from the state government that has the exact same information, but was repeatedly told that the state of Texas does not provide vaccine cards. I figured I’d get a new one whenever it’s time for my next booster.
I have two cards, because the 4th shot wouldn’t fit on the first one. I have a photo of them, and a shortcut on my phone to pull up that pic.
Now that variant-focused boosters will be available after Labor Day to everyone over 12 I hope I’ll actually get a new card.
I just got Omicroostered™ .
I was Moderna for the first four shots but I got Pfizer for this one.
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Got mine (+ flu shot) yesterday. Arm hurts like hell, almost as bad as the first shot. Not much else yet.
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So can you pick up AM now too?
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Yea. I was hoping for XM, but no dice.
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Was it one shot?
That would be two.
Correct, they don’t have combo flu + COVID shots yet.
Thanks, I thought I read months ago that a combo shot was in the works.
I tried to get my re-boost today, but I learned that HEB’s “walk-in” actually means “walk in after you’ve scheduled an appointment online”. So Monday it is. I hope it doesn’t kick my butt like the others have.
My H-E-B is completely walk in unless something is different with this shot.