As I said a few days ago, I cannot comprehend anyone’s thinking $20 million/year is an insultingly low offer. King Carlos apparently does and did not bother to counteroffer. Hard to negotiate with someone whose position is “guess how much I want, and it had better not be what I think is low.”
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100% agree. It’s almost as if he was going to do this and call any offer the Astros made “low” and try to turn it into leverage for free agent negotiations after the season. 6 years, $20 million a year is a great offer.
While we may all think the offer to Correa is a great one, he isn’t the only one who thinks it is low. All of the former GM’s on MLB Radio agree with Correa that the offer is low. Of course they are “former” GM’s for a reason but still, they see it like Correa. Steve Phillips said yesterday he thinks half the teams in the league would pay Carlos more than that and I tend to agree. If Lindor is getting $300 then Correa should get more than $120. Duquette thinks $175-200 is in the ballpark.
His injury history is the issue and the Astros organization and their fans probably have that more under a microscope than anyone. To wit the 6 @ $120. Would be interesting to know if Correa objects to the AAV, the years or both. At 26 he’s the youngest I think of the upcoming free agent shortstop class. At 26 a 10-year deal isn’t unreasonable. Would he bite at 10 at $200? What about 7 or 8 with a larger AAV? Do we want to spend that kind of money on his injury history? Would you rather sign Marcus Simien next year for less money? Do we really think Pena will be the guy? Makes my head hurt! 
All I know for sure is we won’t get much in a trade for a rental.
Its obviously a lowball opening offer, but I dont think its insulting. Its the years (and thus the total value) that’s the problem with that offer for what a player of Carlos’ age would expect. Probably a lot of people would say that 8 years $160 million would have been a strong opening offer.
8 years. For a 6’3" shortstop with a barking back in his early/mid 20’s. No thanks.
But if other teams are willing to take that risk (and I suspect there are), then Carlos’ opinion is perfectly legitimate. All he’s basically saying is he is not going to give up a 2-3 years and $40-75 (or more) million guaranteed bucks just to stay here.
I’m sure the Astros have their valuation on Correa, but from a roster building standpoint from the team’s perspective, to me the decision is all about how much do you love your young pitchers. You can sign Carolos Correa, or you can trade for and sign multiple expensive starting pitchers in the future, but you probably cant do both.
To me, it would be different if he routinely played 150+ games per season. Although he has been a good leader and has played well in the playoffs, his regular season stats aren’t exactly jumping out at you the last several years. Who knows, maybe he will stay healthy and finally put it all together this year.
That part goes back to making the wrong call on keeping Morton. Losing him meant that you had to give up two young SP to replace Morton with a more expensive Greinke. That lack of cheap starters means you are less likely to pay for a guy like Springer or Correa.
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I suspect they were less likely to pay those guys all along.
Get the best from them while they’re relatively cheap, then move on.
Many of you may think Correa is valuing himself at a higher rate than he should, but he has stated he knows this is a business and he’s going to play by those rules.
I don’t want to see Carlos go, but I also don’t want to sell the farm to only have one cow. There is a middle point and hopefully it can be found. The Astros know what Correa is at the MLB level, they may think they know what is in the farm system. But a player can be great in one level and not the other.
But, I in no way blame Correa for believing in what his value is. We all should probably value ourselves at a higher level.
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Lindor has played 150 more games than Correa but they are basically the same player with Correa having a slight offense edge and Lindor a slight defense edge.
Correa has slashed 276/353/480 OPS+ 126
Lindor has slashed 285/346/488 OPS+ 117
Correa has 26.3 WAR in 604 games
Lindor has 28.7 WAR in 777 games
Correa has been almost as valuable as Lindor in 173 fewer games. One guy is reported to be looking at a 300M deal, the other guy was offered 120. And Correa is the younger of the two by almost a year.
The offer isn’t insulting but it’s also in no way realistic and the Astros knew that offer would be rejected outright.
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This is bs. They were not going to keep Morton even if the offer was for two years.
(With the benefit of hindsight) Not resigning Morton was clearly a mistake, but it was a mistake on its own merits that I’m not sure has any impact on Correa. In fact you could argue that the Diamondbacks got “Astro’d” in that deal as both pitchers had elbow injuries.
I think there are 2 issues that Correa is focusing on here.
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He does not ( and should not) want to go through free agency in his early 30s as a big shortstop with an injury history.
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He just saw George Springer who is 3 years older and plays a less important position ( also with injury history if not as severe) get 6 yrs and $150 mil.
I think that means he wants 8 yrs minimum and the AAV that George got.
He may give a small hometown discount because of tax benefits and wanting to stay.
I think 8yrs and $184 mil. Is the smallest offer that he possibly accepts.
If he plays 145 games at '15, '17, or '19 production level he will get 10/300 from someone.
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The 6/$120MM offer was the same as Xander Boegarts got, and he’s worth more than Correa. Talk about $300MM and such, for Lindor or Correa, is absolute lunacy. If Correa thinks he’s all that, good luck. It’s not like he can’t be replaced.
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Pena might be a replacement. But the lack of depth in the farm system is troubling - particularly with another year of MLB sanctions in place.
I will agree that Correa can be replaced ( although there is not a replacement for him in the organization)
I strongly disagree that Bogaerts was better when he signed the deal.
Assuming 4/01/2021 as Carlos’ sign date they are 9 days different in age.
Xander had played 148g per 162 averaging 3.1WAR, .764OPS, and negative 6 runs saved above average.
Carlos has played 127g per 162 averaging 5.5WAR, .833OPS, and 10 runs saved above average.
I Don’t see how anyone can say Xander was better at the time the contract was signed.
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Cherry pick stats however you want. I don’t discount the last two seasons. If I had to chose between the two, I’d take Bogaerts. There’s certainly no way in hell I’d commit more than twice the money to Correa.