I thought I would put an election thread up to separate it from the general melee on the You-Know-Who thread.
There are reports of extremely high turnout in Philadelphia.
My wild-ass guess for the result is Harris wins with 319 EV.
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Oh, man, I hope so.
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Wouldn’t it be nice if we could retire the You-Know-Who thread for good after today?
Or, even better, were it to slide quietly into irrelevance?
I’m not feeling confident about any predictions. Any confidence I have is predicated on the notion that the pollsters are overcorrecting for twice having underestimated Trump’s support. And that’s a slim reed to hang your hopes from.
Either way, it is beyond fucked that approximately half my countrymen are at least copacetic with fascism.
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You never know what will happen…
I’ve had an earworm the last few days of the Who’s, “Won’t Get Fooled Again”. I’m sure it’s just a random thing.
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“Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice…can’t get fooled again.” - George W. Bush
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Depressingly appropriate on so many levels.
I hope that a significant proportion are simply so conditioned to hate the other side that they can’t recognize fascism when they see it.
I fear the proportion that see it, recognize it, and embrace it.
I’m not comforted by that distinction. I’m amazed at how many people I hear from who completely minimize Jan 6th, an event that I see as our most shocking example of fascism. Most of these people likely fall into your first group and not the second, but they are the ones who allow the second group to succeed.
In other words, they still scare me, quite a lot.
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My hope, but not my expectation, is that there will be no ensuing violence.
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I will be shocked if there aren’t multiple homicides at the polls today.
My hope is the margin will be decisive, whichever way it goes. If he wins decisively, so be it. That is the way the country is now, I guess. I am a devout believer in democracy, and if my side loses, we should have gotten out the vote better. If she wins decisively, his inevitable screaming “rigged” and the multiple lawsuits will have a better chance of falling on deaf judicial ears.
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On the off chance that anyone here has the patience to read something thoughtful & thought-provoking about the election,I offer this:
I also strongly recommend reading The Fourth Turning is Here regardless of how the next days/weeks/months play out.
Edited to fix #autocorrupt.
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I tried a while back and got complaints from both sides.
“I am a rather cynical person who cares little for the destiny of the human race, but I confess that I cannot endure more than a minute or two of such a display of scoundrelism. I have to go away or else I lose control of myself. Any kind of cruelty: to animals, to children, to the defenseless or the deformed, ferments my blood, makes me see red, and turns me sick with horror and anger and disgust. For this reason I should be no use to either a Fascist or a Communist state, my regard for the individual and his independence is too strong, my love of brutality too weak, and my tolerance for the variations in human character and behavior too liberal.”
“Bonar Thompson’s Monthly” Vol. 1 No. 2 (February 1937).
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Women are outvoting men by double digit percentages. I wonder what the hell they’re all so worked up about.
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I would have been gravely disappointed if this had been any less idiotic. Principles must be relaxed and rules of law must be bent in order to… enforce the rule of law. Yeah, nice one. VB gonna B VB I reckon.
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The distinction makes no difference in effect on the republic, solely on my ability have empathy with one group.
May it be reduced just to sporadic updates of his various trials and sentencing hearings.
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According to polls, Trump is losing women voters any way you slice it. Notably, he’s about 40 points underwater with women over 65. I suspect that this particular split is because much of that demographic has had this fight before, and they are unwilling to revert to a prior situation (if only there was a more succinct way to say that).
Other polling suggests that the relatively (compared with prior elections) limited number of undecideds are breaking hard for Harris.
A high turnout is good for Democrats. A gender gap in favor of women is good for Democrats. I guess we will see later today whether these trends are real and whether they are decisive.
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