2025 Rule 5

The Bus Ride
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The Rule 5 draft used to produce big news. That hasn’t been the case as much. The better info available with Trackman and such available in every park has something to do with it.

While we wait on who might be exposed to this year’s draft, let’s look back at recent history.

Here is the list of who the Astros have lost in the 2021 to 2023 Rule 5 Drafts (Major and Minor League Portions*) *2021 had no major league portion

Player Year Major/Minor Outcome
Kervin Castro 2023 Minor R 2 NYY (didn’t play in 2024)
Tyler (Ty) Brown 2023 Minor R 1 CLE (retired in April 2024)
Marty Costes 2023 Minor R 2 MIA (released in July 2024)
Layne Henderson 2022 Minor R1 CLE (signed a Minor League Contract with HOU in 24)
Ernesto Jaquez 2022 Minor R 1 CWS (still in High A at age 25)
Jose Alvarez 2022 Minor R 1 STL (Played INDY ball in 2024)
Yohander Martinez 2022 Minor R 2 Twins (Played A ball in 24
Ronnie Dawson 2021 Minor R 1 Reds (played 23 and 24 in Korea)
Brett Daniels 2021 Minor R 2 CLE (played indy ball in 23 & 24)
Manny Ramirez 2021 Minor R 2 NYY (Last played in 2023)

Other than Ronnie Dawson, none of those were major projected cogs in the Astros futures.

So let’s look at who the Astros picked:

Player Year Major/Minor Outcome
Ruben Garcia 2021 Minor R 1 Didn’t last 2022 with the Astros, played indy ball in 23
Max Roberts 2022 Minor R 1 Pitched in White Sox system in 24
Bryan King 2022 Minor R 2 Was injured when drafted and didn’t pitch in 23 but pitched in Houston part of 24
Manuel Urias 2022 Minor R 3 Pitched in Asheville in 2024 still a long way to go
Luis Rodriguez 2022 Minor R 4 Pitched in CC in 2024
Railin Perez 2023 Minor R 1 Pitched in Asheville and CC in 2024
Carlos Betancourt 2023 Minor R 2 Released in 2024

It looks like the Astros were able to win a few innings from a lottery ticket and add some depth to a depleted system.

I would expect a similar pattern for the Rule 5 Draft moving forward.

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I meant to include the fact that the shorter June draft and the reduced number of teams in each affiliate makes it much easier to protect players and harder to find lottery tickets to take a chance on.

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Thanks Duman!

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I know you didn’t go back to 2020, but its notable that the Astros picked Seth Martinez in the minor league phase of that draft ( don’t think they had a major league potion if memory serves)

The resuts show they have got better than they have given recently.

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[The Astros lost no players in the Rule 5 Draft, but took five players in the Minor League phase:

Julio Rodriguez, RHP (Giants Double-A)
Jean Pinto, RHP (Orioles Double-A)
Anderson Bido, RHP (Rockies Double-A)
Jack Blomgren, SS (Rockies High-A)
Nick Swiney, LHP (Giants Double-A)](x.com)

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How bad is it that nobody wanted any of the Astros minor leaguers for, basically, free.

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I never looked at, or don’t remember, the list of who was eligible, therefore I cannot answer your question.

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Miguel Ullola was the biggest risk, imo. Alimber Santa had an outside chance at getting picked. Glad both of them are still with the org.

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But guys like Barber and Murray weren’t even picked in the minor league phase.

Even Chuckie Robinson was picked in the minor league phase.

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While this may be a true statement about the farm system, the Astros still find ways to bring up players from that farm system to help the big league club win. I don’t have answers for how the do that, but the results have borne out over several years.

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Don’t sweat it too much. The Astros are one of 5 teams not to have anyone taken in any round. Another eight teams only had one player taken. Negligible difference.

The MiLB Rule 5, as you know, is as much about filling roster holes than acquiring prospects (I’d say entirely about filling holes, but some teams do think they can squeeze value out of it). Promotion decisions affect it, too, so some teams end up leaving more useful guys exposed than others.

None of this is to say they have a good system. They don’t. It’ll still produce some good players. Barber and Murray are prospects who haven’t panned out; nothing surprises me about not losing them. Don’t sweat it too much.

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This is especially true as the draft has been shortened and the number of affiliates has been decreased. There are fewer players and fewer places to hide talent.

The Rule Five was all about preventing teams from hoarding players who could be at higher levels. It appears that the Astros clearly are not hoarding talent.

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A bit of background
Julio Rodriguez, RHP (Giants Double-A) - The Cuban pitched in three levels last year (A+, AA, AAA) combied 54 1/3 IP with 64 Ks but 26 walks. In AA, it was 15 Ks and 14 BB in 14 1/3 IP. Might need to work on his control a bit.

Jean Pinto, RHP (Orioles Double-A) - Just 23, Pinto underwent TJ in March of 2024. In 23, pitched in A+ and AA combining for 101 Ks and 30 BB in 81 1/3 IP. This one has my full attention.

Anderson Bido, RHP (Rockies Double-A) Not much to see here other than a very low walk rate. In 24 in A+ and AA, he struck out 37 and walked just 6 in 38 1/3 IP. Currently pitching for the Toros in the Dominican Winter League.

Jack Blomgren, SS (Rockies High-A) 5th round/last round pick out of Michigan in the 2020 abreviated draft. Has a pretty significant injury history. Only 6 games played in 2022, 19 in 2023 and then 34 in 2024. Still a career 282/401/414 hitter over 4 seasons (145 games). Has split time between SS & 2nd with a few excursions into the outfield. He was a leader on the Michigan 2019 College World Series Runner Up team and Keith Law said this about him in 2022: Shortstop Jack Blomgren has a shot to be a good utility player, with strong contact skills, some speed and a high baseball IQ. The Rockies could try him in center to help boost his value as a jack-of-all-trades bench piece". Do with it what you will but looks like a reasonable lottery ticket.

Nick Swiney, LHP (Giants Double-A) - After spending much of 2023 in AAA, he spent all year in AA in 2024 where in 72 IP in 41 Games, he struck out 79 and walked 33 while giving up 11 long balls. I guess you can never have enough lefthanded pitchers, right?

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TRUTH

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I’m actually surprised Ullola wasn’t picked. His stuff is MLB ready from everything I’ve read. His control, not so much. Thought there would’ve been at least team who thought they could spin that straw into gold.

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Interesting 2 from the Giants and 2 from the Rockies. Was Blomgren taken in the AA phase or AAA?

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Starting in 2022, this was the new system:

There is also a Minor League phase of the Rule 5 Draft, with the costs rising from $12,000 to $24,000 for a Triple-A pick (anyone not protected on a big league or Triple-A roster is eligible). The Double-A phase has been eliminated. Players selected in this portion of the Rule 5 Draft aren’t subject to any roster restrictions with their new organizations.

So if you are Rule 5 eligable and not on the 40 man or the AAA roster, you are available for $24,000. Therefore the Astros spent $120,000 in the Rule 5 draft this year.

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Note: in the BA chat on their Astros top prospects list, they noted that Miguel Ullola was not Rule 5 eligible—there had been conflicting reports on that.

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