The Rule 5 draft used to produce big news. That hasn’t been the case as much. The better info available with Trackman and such available in every park has something to do with it.
While we wait on who might be exposed to this year’s draft, let’s look back at recent history.
Here is the list of who the Astros have lost in the 2021 to 2023 Rule 5 Drafts (Major and Minor League Portions*) *2021 had no major league portion
| Player | Year | Major/Minor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kervin Castro | 2023 | Minor R 2 | NYY (didn’t play in 2024) |
| Tyler (Ty) Brown | 2023 | Minor R 1 | CLE (retired in April 2024) |
| Marty Costes | 2023 | Minor R 2 | MIA (released in July 2024) |
| Layne Henderson | 2022 | Minor R1 | CLE (signed a Minor League Contract with HOU in 24) |
| Ernesto Jaquez | 2022 | Minor R 1 | CWS (still in High A at age 25) |
| Jose Alvarez | 2022 | Minor R 1 | STL (Played INDY ball in 2024) |
| Yohander Martinez | 2022 | Minor R 2 | Twins (Played A ball in 24 |
| Ronnie Dawson | 2021 | Minor R 1 | Reds (played 23 and 24 in Korea) |
| Brett Daniels | 2021 | Minor R 2 | CLE (played indy ball in 23 & 24) |
| Manny Ramirez | 2021 | Minor R 2 | NYY (Last played in 2023) |
Other than Ronnie Dawson, none of those were major projected cogs in the Astros futures.
So let’s look at who the Astros picked:
| Player | Year | Major/Minor | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ruben Garcia | 2021 | Minor R 1 | Didn’t last 2022 with the Astros, played indy ball in 23 |
| Max Roberts | 2022 | Minor R 1 | Pitched in White Sox system in 24 |
| Bryan King | 2022 | Minor R 2 | Was injured when drafted and didn’t pitch in 23 but pitched in Houston part of 24 |
| Manuel Urias | 2022 | Minor R 3 | Pitched in Asheville in 2024 still a long way to go |
| Luis Rodriguez | 2022 | Minor R 4 | Pitched in CC in 2024 |
| Railin Perez | 2023 | Minor R 1 | Pitched in Asheville and CC in 2024 |
| Carlos Betancourt | 2023 | Minor R 2 | Released in 2024 |
It looks like the Astros were able to win a few innings from a lottery ticket and add some depth to a depleted system.
I would expect a similar pattern for the Rule 5 Draft moving forward.