I figured this discussion would heat up soon, so here’s a dedicated topic
I couldn’t remember if the Astros were getting a sandwich pick for Bregman or not, so I looked it up. Good news: yes, they are. Bad news: it’s between the 4th and 5th rounds. It’s baseball, you never know where you’re going to strike gold, but that seems unlikely to move the needle much. Maybe the pick comes with some extra slot money that can be used to influence an earlier pick?
How does Boston get a “competitive balance” pick after round 1 (#33)?
The short answer is, they traded for it:
I’m much less plugged into this draft than in years past (three-week-old newborn and all), but we’re fifteen days out and team-specific rumors are just starting to percolate a bit. I’ll link a few of the most recent mock drafts below. The actual picks are less informative than the grouping of players they connect the Astros to.
I’d say a slim plurality of the Astros rumors surround Xavier Neyens, a high school bat out of Washington (Oregon State commit). He’s been playing SS but everyone assumes he’ll slide to 3B in pro ball. Summarizing the scouting reports, he’s a power-over-hit lefty bat who crushes the ball but can get passive at the plate. Other teams connected to him are the Red Sox, Orioles, and Brewers, all of whom pick in front of the Astros, so no guarantee he’s available.
Other players connected to the Astros are Arkansas SS/Golden Spikes winner Wehiwa Aloy (the one who didn’t go for the double play against LSU), high school 3B Gavin Fien (probably won’t be around at 21), high school SS Tate Southisene (not usually mocked as high as 21), high school SS/2B Kayson Cunningham (San Antonio guy, Texas commit, noted for his ability to barrel the ball). Oddly enough, Coastal catcher Caden Bodine is also rumored to be in play, despite the Astros taking another glove-first college catcher last year in Walker Janek (yeah, yeah, best player available). [*maybe it’s not fair to call Bodine “glove-first”, he’s a good contact hitter, not much power to speak of, and is apparently a good receiver but not a great thrower]
On the pitching side, it stands to reason they’d be interested in Arkansas RHP Gage Wood (of recent no-hitter fame) based on his very Astros-y riding fastball.
Links:
Congrats on the newborn!
BA posted a new mock today, going with Neyens to the Astros, but with an interesting comment:
The Astros are shaping up to be something of a wild card. They get tied to a significantly larger pool of names than most teams. Given their bonus pool capital—$7.2 million, fourth smallest—and lack of a second-round pick, they could make a lot of sense for an off-the-board play on a deal. Xavier Neyens, Gage Wood and Slater de Brun are some of the names linked to them who could all fit here as more obvious names. They’ve taken a college hitter in each of the last three drafts. The best available of that demographic could be some combination of Caden Bodine, Andrew Fischer, Ethan Conrad and Cam Cannarella.
Conrad stands out as a really interesting upside guy. Played CF for Wake this season after transferring from Marist after his sophomore year, but went down with a shoulder injury in March and had season-ending surgery in April. Lefty bat, great performer in the Cape Cod League, certainly a bigger guy (listed at 6’3"/220) but reportedly runs well. Also on the younger side for his year, turning 21 just before draft day. BA ranks him 22nd overall in the class, MLB ranks him 28th. Considering those rankings price in the uncertainty of the injury and the small junior sample size, you can imagine he might go earlier in the first round if he’d played a whole season. If the Astros trust their past looks at him and their data, he’d fit the profile of a potential injury bargain like 2nd rounder Ryan Forcucci last year.
Cannarella, Clemson’s CF, has some similar traits as a lefty-swinging outfielder who suffered a shoulder injury in 2024. BA writes him up as a sure-thing centerfielder but who may have no more than a Jake Meyers-esque noodle arm after the injury. Much smaller build (6’0"/170) and reportedly minimal power potential, but a good CF is a good CF.
Fischer was Tennessee’s 1B this season, spent previous seasons at Duke and Ole Miss. Hits well from the left side, it’s just hard to imagine the Astros taking a 1B in the first round.
I haven’t seen him tied to the Astros but Florida State SS Alex Lodise might make sense too in the college bat demographic. The write-ups suggest he might stick at SS, might slide to 3B, but he’s got a definite left-side arm. Absolutely wallops the ball when he makes contact but chases a lot and is never going to be much of a contact guy. Consensus rankings put him late first round to early second.
Intel! In his latest draft column, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel notes:
Xavier Neyens and Tate Southisene are connected to the Astros’ first pick, but keep an eye on Micah Bucknam and Matt Ferraro in the third or fourth round.
Bucknam is ranked #323 on the Baseball America 500. They say:
Bucknam made eight relief appearances in each of two seasons with LSU in 2023 and 2024 before transferring to Dallas Baptist for the 2025 season. A 6-foot-1, 210-pound righthander, Bucknam moved into a starting role with DBU and features a four-pitch mix headlined by a 93-94 mph fastball that touches 96 and a hard slider in the upper 80s. Bucknam also throws a curveball in the low 80s and a changeup in the upper 80s.
“Matt Ferraro” appears to be New Jersey high school SS/2B Matt Ferrara, a Pittsburgh commit who isn’t on the BA 500, but who has this intriguing writeup as the #487 prospect at Future Stars Series:
Ferrara is a budding prospect with physical tools and twitchiness that have come on late. He’s a bit of a late bloomer on the athletic side of things, but his uptick really shows in games. Ferrara has super quick hands and can get away with starting late in the box. He keeps the barrel through the zone for an extended amount of time and has shown the ability to impact the baseball to the opposite field. When he’s on time there’s above average raw power to the pull-side with some feel for backspin and launch. There may be more in the tank too as Ferrara tests athletically at elite levels with measurements in the vertical jump test that dwarf just about everybody in the class. The vertical jump test (or CMJ jump) is a reliable barometer for lower-body power and explosivity projection, both present and future. If the twitchiness, hand strength and impact continue to tick up in games as July approaches he could hear his name called early in the Draft.
Defensively Ferrara lacks the value of most of his shortstop peers, though he is smooth and talented enough to stay on the dirt as a professional. He profiles as a bat-first third baseman, but could stay up the middle at second base if he doesn’t outgrow the position. He’s a fringe-average runner and will occasionally post times below that. Pressure will continue to be placed on his lateral range and foot speed in the field and on the bases. Ferrara has the hands, footwork and arm strength that all project on the infield.
Shades of Chase Jaworksy, an off-the-radar high school infielder with standout athleticism they took in the fifth round in 2023.
LaViolette scares me. Everyone knows the tools, the upside is enormous, but a .285 career hitter at A&M who couldn’t clear .260 in his junior season…
Hadn’t heard of Flemming, but somebody needs to start feeding this boy.
Astros Futures did a mock draft round up with results from 7 different media mock drafts
Nice one stop shopping if you can tolerate a few pop up ads.
Gavin Kilen 2B from UT(Knoxville) and Xavier Neyens, HS 3B from Mt Vernon (Wa) were names that appeared on more than one draft.
One note on Flemming: he’s a little old for his year and will turn 19 right after the draft. I don’t know where the Astros stand on age for hitters anymore, but old-for-year used to be a big red flag for the stat-oriented teams. My impression is that some teams still care about it a lot, but there is less of a stigma than 10-15 years ago given that teams have so much physical/swing/contact data they can adjust for age pretty well now. And the results for older HS hitters aren’t as grim as they used to be—for example, Bobby Witt Jr. turned 19 the day after he was picked, and that’s gone pretty well for the Royals.
Law also notes in his mock draft that the Rays are in on him, probably for their sandwich-round pick. If I had to guess I’d say he doesn’t end up with the Astros, they’d really have to have fallen in love with him to take him at 21, but it’s always interesting to see what we can glean from the kind of players they show interest in.
Mocks around the clock. Taylor Blake Ward of The Sporting Tribune says:
21. HOUSTON ASTROS - WEHIWA ALOY, SS, ARKANSAS
Neyens gets a lot of traction here, but he might be outpriced for Houston who has the fourth smallest bonus pool and other teams potentially looking to swing him down a tick.
I’m not sure that would take Houston entirely out, but it leans me towards the Astros recent philosophy of offensive-minded collegiates like Aloy or others already mentioned.
I think Houston would love a shot at Gage Wood.
I think that’s the first time I’ve seen it mentioned that Neyens could be priced out of the Astros’ range. It makes some sense—the Orioles and Rays are teams that might like him a lot, and they both have larger bonus pools and multiple sandwich round picks to float him down to.
Ward is an excellent twitter follow for draft day for those looking to follow along—especially on day two, when he often has at least a little bit of information on late-round guys who the bigger publications may have missed.
The latest:
The Orioles just acquired the 37th overall pick in a trade with the Rays (unlike other picks, comp-round picks are tradable). Baltimore now picks at 19, 30, 31, and 37—and even more important than the number of picks, they now have the largest bonus pool of any team.
It was already being speculated that the O’s would try to float a prep target down to their comp-round picks with a big bonus offer, and this only makes that more likely. If they are indeed interested in Xavier Neyens (a rumored Astros target), this is the kind of scenario that could easily price him beyond the Astros’ budget.
BA posted another mock yesterday with Neyens to the Astros, again noting that they might not be able to afford him if he has suitors with bigger bonus pools. The rest of their comments:
Gage Wood is another name mentioned, but I would guess a hitter over a pitcher for the Astros. Ethan Conrad and Sean Gamble are two names I’ve heard tied to the Astros. Kayson Cunningham, Slater de Brun, Gavin Fien, Andrew Fischer, Josh Hammond and Cam Cannarella are some of the other best hitters available, but I don’t have a great link to feel confident with of that group.
Scouting director Cam Pendino gave some quotes to McTaggart the other day:
“[This draft] is less college bat-heavy and more high school bat-heavy. There’s a lot of interesting high school bats, particularly in terms of depth. There’s more high school depth than there was a year ago.”
“I will say you can never have enough pitching,” Pendino said. “I do think this organization has historically been very successful at drafting arms later down the board who return Major League value.”
The Astros haven’t taken a pitcher in the first round since 2017 (Bukauskas), and haven’t taken one who had a decent major league career since McCullers in 2012, who was technically a 1S pick. Their last true first round pitcher to accumulate more than 5 career WAR was Brad Lidge in 1998. Trends like this are less meaningful than they seem, but… maybe stick with hitters?
In other draft market news, draft guy Joe Doyle of Future Stars Series notes:
Common narrative coming out of front offices… Teams are expecting to be able to sign many more $500k-$750k high schoolers this year.
Agents are doing a good job explaining the risks for freshman in college baseball. A lot of uncertainty playing college baseball in 2025.
The transfer portal is giving coaches access to older, established talent like never before. Programs care about winning more than developing. True freshman are being pushed out after one year without a path to playing time. Players being forced to “level-down” to play.
Really interesting counterbalance to the NIL money draw.
Link is busted, for me at least
Fixed!
I’m not sure about the “freshmen being pushed out” line of thinking. Maybe at mid-level programs. If you have talent you’ll play, it may take a transfer if you’re blocked, but…
Of course my opinions are skewed by being a fan of one of the biggest “haves” in the have/have-not world of college sports
Right, but there’s been a rule change (no, I’m not an expert but know enough to be dangerous) that I’m pretty sure 1) allows for more scholarships which is good, but 2) cut down allowable roster size for all schools from maybe 40 to 34…or maybe 32. Anyhow, if I’m correct about the roster size part then there is a trickle down effect where the best programs will have to cut a half dozen players…and they’ll transfer to the next tier down, and so and and so forth…making it extremely tough on kids coming out of HS to find a place to play, because well…there are just less spots available and now you’re trying to earn a spot against an older player that actually has college experience. Really tough.
From ESPN’s latest mock:
Power-over-hit is not my preferred kind of player, but that’s an aesthetic preference, and Dana Brown and the scouting department know a lot better than I do. I’ll say the later round targets mentioned here don’t really fit that profile, aside from Mitchell.
Mitchell - 6’3" HS catcher from DE, power-over-hit per Baseball America (Kentucky commit)
Ferrara - discussed upthread, athletic high school SS (Pittsburgh commit)
Miura - Hawaii’s CF, FSS describes him as a Myles Straw type
Hughes - young glove-first high school SS from CA (UCSB commit)
Flores - high school RHP from IN (Kentucky commit)
Finkbeiner - high school RHP from MI (Michigan commit)
I second this. Auburn had three freshmen make the SEC all freshman team (one made All SEC) and two make multiple Freshmen All American teams - one made three (and he wasn’t drafted last year). Talent plays.
