I figured this discussion would heat up soon, so here’s a dedicated topic
I couldn’t remember if the Astros were getting a sandwich pick for Bregman or not, so I looked it up. Good news: yes, they are. Bad news: it’s between the 4th and 5th rounds. It’s baseball, you never know where you’re going to strike gold, but that seems unlikely to move the needle much. Maybe the pick comes with some extra slot money that can be used to influence an earlier pick?
How does Boston get a “competitive balance” pick after round 1 (#33)?
The short answer is, they traded for it:
I’m much less plugged into this draft than in years past (three-week-old newborn and all), but we’re fifteen days out and team-specific rumors are just starting to percolate a bit. I’ll link a few of the most recent mock drafts below. The actual picks are less informative than the grouping of players they connect the Astros to.
I’d say a slim plurality of the Astros rumors surround Xavier Neyens, a high school bat out of Washington (Oregon State commit). He’s been playing SS but everyone assumes he’ll slide to 3B in pro ball. Summarizing the scouting reports, he’s a power-over-hit lefty bat who crushes the ball but can get passive at the plate. Other teams connected to him are the Red Sox, Orioles, and Brewers, all of whom pick in front of the Astros, so no guarantee he’s available.
Other players connected to the Astros are Arkansas SS/Golden Spikes winner Wehiwa Aloy (the one who didn’t go for the double play against LSU), high school 3B Gavin Fien (probably won’t be around at 21), high school SS Tate Southisene (not usually mocked as high as 21), high school SS/2B Kayson Cunningham (San Antonio guy, Texas commit, noted for his ability to barrel the ball). Oddly enough, Coastal catcher Caden Bodine is also rumored to be in play, despite the Astros taking another glove-first college catcher last year in Walker Janek (yeah, yeah, best player available). [*maybe it’s not fair to call Bodine “glove-first”, he’s a good contact hitter, not much power to speak of, and is apparently a good receiver but not a great thrower]
On the pitching side, it stands to reason they’d be interested in Arkansas RHP Gage Wood (of recent no-hitter fame) based on his very Astros-y riding fastball.
Links:
Congrats on the newborn!
BA posted a new mock today, going with Neyens to the Astros, but with an interesting comment:
The Astros are shaping up to be something of a wild card. They get tied to a significantly larger pool of names than most teams. Given their bonus pool capital—$7.2 million, fourth smallest—and lack of a second-round pick, they could make a lot of sense for an off-the-board play on a deal. Xavier Neyens, Gage Wood and Slater de Brun are some of the names linked to them who could all fit here as more obvious names. They’ve taken a college hitter in each of the last three drafts. The best available of that demographic could be some combination of Caden Bodine, Andrew Fischer, Ethan Conrad and Cam Cannarella.
Conrad stands out as a really interesting upside guy. Played CF for Wake this season after transferring from Marist after his sophomore year, but went down with a shoulder injury in March and had season-ending surgery in April. Lefty bat, great performer in the Cape Cod League, certainly a bigger guy (listed at 6’3"/220) but reportedly runs well. Also on the younger side for his year, turning 21 just before draft day. BA ranks him 22nd overall in the class, MLB ranks him 28th. Considering those rankings price in the uncertainty of the injury and the small junior sample size, you can imagine he might go earlier in the first round if he’d played a whole season. If the Astros trust their past looks at him and their data, he’d fit the profile of a potential injury bargain like 2nd rounder Ryan Forcucci last year.
Cannarella, Clemson’s CF, has some similar traits as a lefty-swinging outfielder who suffered a shoulder injury in 2024. BA writes him up as a sure-thing centerfielder but who may have no more than a Jake Meyers-esque noodle arm after the injury. Much smaller build (6’0"/170) and reportedly minimal power potential, but a good CF is a good CF.
Fischer was Tennessee’s 1B this season, spent previous seasons at Duke and Ole Miss. Hits well from the left side, it’s just hard to imagine the Astros taking a 1B in the first round.
I haven’t seen him tied to the Astros but Florida State SS Alex Lodise might make sense too in the college bat demographic. The write-ups suggest he might stick at SS, might slide to 3B, but he’s got a definite left-side arm. Absolutely wallops the ball when he makes contact but chases a lot and is never going to be much of a contact guy. Consensus rankings put him late first round to early second.