It’s a failure of process. Every team comes up with a value for a player based on how they project the player’s performance and what the team’s needs are. Reportedly, Crane dismissed his GM in large part because that GM resisted when Crane wanted to acquire players for at greater cost (in dollars or prospect capital) than the front office valued them at (e.g. the rumored Starling Marte story). After dismissing that GM and before hiring a new one, the Astros made two significant free agent signings, both of which have now ended in failure.
I don’t particularly care what the dollars were or the years were. I care more about the fact that the solid process that has kept the Astros winning for years was abandoned for at least one offseason, and the decisions made during that time have hamstrung the team and reduced their chances of winning another World Series any time soon.
Read my point. Where did I imply that the results justified a claim that it was a bad signing? My only point about results is that we tend to use them to justify an opinion one way or the other, and that is not a valid approach.
My point is, that it is not possible to know what “everybody” knew, especially when not everybody knew everything that everyone else knew. They made a decision that did not work out. They valued Montero (and Abreu) more than other people did for reasons which we cannot and do not know. This is just like drafting players above or below where “everybody” thinks they fall. When you get it right, you’re a genius, and when it does not work out, you are criticized for not doing what “everybody” thought you should have done. This is all nonsense.
Paying Montero what they paid him is like drafting a kicker in the first round of your fantasy draft. He might get you a ton of points, he might be the best kicker in the league, you might even win the league but you could have gotten him later in the draft, because nobody else was doing that. Bad process.
Per Chandler Rome, Brown says they’ve asked Montero about sticking with the org in AAA (he’ll clear waivers, obviously). I’d hope he sticks around. Still a talented guy and they’re paying him either way—it’s worth keeping him around to see if there are any more big league innings in that arm.
And just to say, Crane can absolutely pay anybody he wants anything he wants, it’s his money. But he can’t then say “win at all cost” and “stay under the tax” at the same time. If you want win at all cost, I’m here for it, pay everybody. If you want to stay under the tax but still compete, you have to make smart deals and avoid overpaying.
I agree with that as a general rule, but not with the underlying theme that Crane is a penny pincher. He’s been willing to spend, even more than you think is reasonable, for players he thinks will improve the team.
I don’t see him as a penny pincher but he’s not George Steinbrenner either, nor should he be. I’ve never said he’s cheap.
Today is the first time, I think, that I have talked about the Montero contract since around the time it was signed. Once a deal is done, no use crying over spilled milk. I simply disagree that it was only bad in hindsight because it was bad the day it was signed.
After the season Montero had in 2022, I think just about everyone would have been upset to see him sign elsewhere. Had he have pitched like he did in 2022 throughout his contract, we wouldn’t be talking about this. I don’t think anyone saw him regressing the way he did.
I was with you until this part. Relievers are notoriously fickle from year to year. Guys like Hader and Pressly that maintain the production for multiple years are the exception, and earn the long term contracts. Guys like Montero have mediocre production then an elite year, and it’s why giving long term deals to most relievers is a bad idea.
Were there any potential free agent players/contracts that Crane didn’t pursue because the team never had any payroll flexibility?
I also recall them walking away from some much larger contract demands from existing players such as Springer, Correa and Keuchel which would have been much more limiting on the team’s payroll flexibility in future years.
To suggest that Abreu and Montero contracts have hurt the team’s ability to compete either now or in the future is simply not true.
Other than the McCulllers contract, there really isn’t what I would call a contract that didn’t work out favourably for the Astros that is remaining on the books.
A lot of organizations and their fan bases would be envious.
8 trips to the playoffs in the last 9 years. 7(?) To the ALCS including one win away from a World Series last year. 5 trips to the WS in that span and WS championships. Not since the 90’s Yankees, has an organization had this type of success.
And the team still competes to this day and has as good a chance this year as they did in 2022 when they won it all.
As long Crane is the owner, he has stated the window will always be open. He has demonstrated time after time a willingness to spend when needed and make bold moves when needed. Few teams in recent years have done more with so little in its farm system the last in developing talent the last several years. There is no reason that can’t or won’t continue. It never comes without risk, and there are no guarantees. But the window is still wide open from what I can see.
Well if you weren’t paying 30+ million to Abreu and Montero(which they still have on the books with or without the players on the roster, this year and next), you might have gotten a starter this past offseason. You might have signed Verlander in 22 instead of having to trade prospects to get him back. I don’t want to put words in your mouth but if you’re saying those contracts have no impact, you’re wrong.