Does anybody know what salary distribution looks like on a typical non-shitty team? Realistically, how many $25M salaries can a team carry before they run out of room to pay the other players? Five? Six?
NYY - 6
LAD - 5
TEX - 4
PHI - 3
NYM - 2
LAA - 2
SDP - 2
Nobody else has more than 1
1 Like
The 1st level of CBT is $241M, but after you figure benefits, the pre-arb bonus pool, and 40 man players in the minors, its about $219.2M
So if a team is not going above that level they have that to spend on 26 players.
So, they could have 8 players at $25M each and have just over $1M for each of the other 18 players.
8 stars and 18 pre-arb players?
In 2024, there were 61 players whose contract value for CBT purposes was $20M+, so on average about 2 of those players per team.
It made me a little ill to see that Jose Abreu’s 2024 CBT value ($19.5M) was higher than Yordan’s ($19.2M).
I wouldn’t say never, but Bregman isn’t in the same category as these guys.
This is Bregman. He’s a solid, mid-level player, but certainly not a franchise player. It makes absolutely zero sense to treat him as one.
2 Likes
Bregman isn’t the player Brantley was. I’m not sure why we’re even comparing the two. If Bregman were a “Brantley type” I’d pay him more money for more years than he’s been offered.
Which is why it’s a very appropriate offer. He doesn’t like it because he thinks he’s a superstar. As is his prerogative. But the Astros’ offer is very much in line with the kind of player he is.
2 Likes
Astros made an offer comparable to the Giants contract wih Matt Chapman. The offer to Bregman was more than fair. The team has already made their contingency plans. They have left the offer on the table for the time being. It isn’t a hard “no”, but they don’t seem to be actively chasing him and falling for Boras’ games by bidding against themselves.
1 Like
This is why I’d give him a deadline: sign or the offer is off the table. He’s had way more than enough time to consider the offer. The Astros have to plan for the 2025 season.
2 Likes
They may already have given one or have one in mind. It’s not something they need to make public nor would it be of any benefit to do so. As far as planning for 2025, the plan would be to plan as though you would be without him. And I think they have already done that. I don’t think it needs to be any more complicated than that.
2 Likes
I know you aren’t a Bregman fan and you love Brantley(we all do), but you have Astros Brantley in your head as the comparison, not Cleveland Brantley.
Look at Bregmans numbers to this point and Brantleys numbers prior to him becoming an Astro, especially the last 4 years before becoming a FA. Brantley averaged less than 100 games per season for his last 4 years in Cleveland, which is why the Astros were able to get him on a short deal. Bregman on the other hand plays every day. They, looking at the last 4 years before FA, are very similar overall production at the plate but Bregman is a year younger, plays better defense and at a more premium position.
No GM would ever look at the two and come to the conclusion Brantley is the more valuable player.
2 Likes
I AM a Bregman fan. But my eyes work. He’s not a franchise/perennial All-Star type of player. He’s just not worth $30 million/year and the Astros were already paying him more than he is worth. I find this notion that they’ve somehow paid him $200 million less than he was worth to be nuts. If he was worth that he’d have a handful of $300 million offers on the table. The fact that he doesn’t should tell you something about how folks not wearing rainbow-colored glasses see him.
3 Likes
I love Brantley but we are just going to have to disagree on this one.
Alex has a career OPS over 50 pts higher, is a much better fielder at a more valuable defensive position and has a much better record staying healthy.
Brantley missed 70+ games due to injury 4 of his final 8 seasons - and one of the healthy ones was 2020.
Per Spotrac, he has made $107, 873, 010 in his career.
Per Fangraphs he has 39.7 career WAR with a value of $317,300,000
FTR he was worth $33M last year and 2021 ($17.1M) was the only full season of his career he has been worth less than $30M according to them.
Now I have no idea what their methodology is to determine that 1 WAR is worth $8M or how they compile WAR.
But I got the $200M from a respected and widely recognized source. I didn’t make it up.
He’s worth what the market will bear. I don’t see any 200.000.000 being offered.
2 Likes
Front offices have wised up to not paying for past performance.
3 Likes
I didn’t say you made it up, I said I find that idea nuts. If Bregman is worth that, he’ll have no trouble getting it. If he doesn’t, that’ll say more about his value than I can.
3 Likes
I think it has a lot to do with Boras and his bag of tricks becoming old news. Nobody is falling for his antics anymore. Montgomery fired his ass for something similar to what Bregman is going to deal with this season if he doesn’t wise up.
1 Like
FTR I agree with this.
There’s clearly no team willing to give him $200M so he’s not worth that.
I think he should take the Astros offer that is reportedly (now) over $156M because I think it would take $170M+ anywhere else to match the benefits ( legacy, winning, home stadium, familiarity) in Houston and I don’t see him getting that. But I’m not Alex and have no idea what he’s thinking.
2 Likes
I was just clarifying. I didn’t mean to imply that you were accusing me.
And I never said Alex IS worth that. I said he HAS BEEN worth that according to that metric.
He’s no longer in his prime,
But I do wish that MLB had some system where players could actually get paid what they are worth when yhey are worth it.
I don’t know the answer, but starting caliber players are usually worth much more than they get paid when in their prime. Then by the time they are able to control what they make, teams don’t want to pay them because they won’t be as good as they were when they were cheap.
However, Alex did this to himself by selling out his first 2 FA seasons.