POTW
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There was some chatter about that on The Athletic this morning. The Cubs have five guys on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list - if Pressly does waive his no trade clause, this could be very interesting indeed…
He’ll obviously be better in LF, just like Biggio
Why do I picture you as Dale Gribble?
That reminds me, I need to get my propane tank refilled.
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Butane’s a bastard gas.
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“There’s one writer that I wasn’t able to get a vote from,” [Ichiro] said through an interpreter Thursday, two days after receiving 393 of 394 votes from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. “I would like to invite him over to my house, and we’ll have a drink together, and we’ll have a good chat.”
So was wondering if someone far more smarter than me around here could help me with these deferred contracts and how they work. In particular I’m wondering about their effects in relation to luxury tax payroll. I thought I’d previously read that deferred money counted fully against the luxury tax but this morning the guys on MLB radio said different regarding Santander’s deal. Anyhow, I’m wondering because if a portion of deferred salary doesn’t count against the tax then that could be a big deal in terms of the team being able to sign Bregman and yet still remain under the luxury tax threshold, which has been a goal for Crane.
Right now, even if you could trade all of Pressley’s contract a deal with Bregman would most certainly take you right back over by a fairly large sum.
They calculate the net present value of the deferred money and that’s what counts against the luxury tax. I have no idea what the formula is, I can barely do simple arithmetic, but I know for Ohtani’s deal it says he makes ~$46M/y for luxury tax purposes.
What really complicates things is how they calculate the tax value for deals like Santander’s where there are multiple conditional options, like how he can opt out after three years, unless the team adds a sixth year, and some other crap like that. I don’t know how you turn that into a simple AAV, especially given the deferrals, but the commissioner’s office has a method. And FWIW I saw the players’ union has its own method that differs somewhat but is still pretty close.
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He might accidentally fall on a knife. Nine times.
That makes sense, since presumably the player calculates the future value of the payments in accepting deferred payments, and the future value is substantially greater than the present value. The real question is the discount they apply to calculate the present value.
The complications are pretty fascinating. Maybe it has something to do with when the future payments actually vest?
One of those serious offers is from the Astros. So if he hasn’t signed, it must not be much seriouser.
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I believe, though could definitely be wrong, that for CBT purposes they pretend that opt-outs and options don’t exist
How about this -
Trade Pressly for Cubs prospects (relievers or OF’ers)
Trade Paredes to the Paradres for Luis Arraez to play in LF
Sign Bregman
Rock out with the lineup Opening Day
Altuve 2B
Arraez LF
Alvarez DH
Walker 1B
Bregman 3B
Yainer C
Pena SS
McCormick RF
Meyers CF
The second weakest arm in the history of baseball in RF…topped only by the weakest arm in the history of baseball in CF. Yay.
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That OF might combine for 10 HRs.
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So while the defense is terrible, they make up for it by not hitting.
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Except for player options. Because the player has 100% control of declining or accepting.
A contract of 5/$100M + a $2M player option would have an AAV of $17M
A contract of 5/$100M + any other kind of option is $20M
I learned this from the Odorrizi contract.
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We lose money on every sale, but we make up for it in volume.
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From Jon Heyman on twitter:
The ball is now in Ryan Pressly’s court. The Astros have asked the relief star if he will approve a trade to the Cubs. Pressly has full no-trade and never wanted to leave Houston, where he and his family live year-round. But he may find the Cubs and a return to closing enticing.
Sounds like this could all be wrapped up soon.