It is pyschologically safer to be expect bad things and be prepared for disapointment. But it is also lazier compared to looking at facts.
The only thing that people can say negative about this front office is they haven’t done enough, but no one can say what enough would look like unless it looks like a world series ring.
To recap what this front office has done:
Signed the best closer in baseball to a long term deal
Signed a team icon to a deal to end his career in Houston
Traded for Justin Verlander so that the Mets ate a bunch of the contract
Traded for Kendall Graveman who got hurt - that happens but he was solid prior to injury.
And in a weak pitching market traded Y. Kikuchi who preceded to pitch in 9 wins in 10 starts down the stretch.
This may just be a regurgitation of existing rumors, but Bruce Levine is saying the Cubs and Astros are talking about a deal where Tucker goes to Chicago in exchange for Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith. That would be great, imo.
I am just not excited about Paredes. His underlying batted ball stats are underwhelming and trending down as the league adjusted to his good 2023 campaign. I found this an interesting read but, for context, this article was towards the end of 2023. That adjustment in 2024 was either the pitchers adjusting or his production stats regressing towards his batted ball stats. Or both.
Reversing myself, I continue to have high regard for the Astros FO and their decision making. Especially pitching assessments and refinement. A bit less for hitting.
There’s definitely real risk. You could call him a one-trick pony at the plate. But I think Wrigley was a very bad hitting environment for him (as noted by many at the time of the trade, which left a lot of folks scratching their heads) and he’d be a much better fit at Daikin.
Of course, we’ve all seen “he’ll feast on the Crawford Boxes!” go wrong before (e.g. Trey Mancini). But his track record is still pretty good, he’s a proven MLB talent with years of club control remaining, and that’s exactly the kind of guy I’d hope the Astros would target if they’re going to trade Kyle.
Getting Suzuki back from the Cubs (per some of the rumors) would also be great, imo. I kinda like the idea of a mega-trade that sends Tucker, Framer, and Pressly to Chicago for Paredes, Suzuki, and a couple high-level prospects. Would also free up a good chunk of payroll to continue adding for 2025.
Heading to Vegas for the weekend, and it looks like I can get a parlay of Yordan for MVP and Astros to win the AL for 47 to 1. I can think of worse ways to throw away twenty bucks.
What would give me hope with Paredes is that his 2024 numbers prior to the trade were about the same as 2023.
OPS+
23 130
24 in TB 127
24 in CHC 82
OBP
23 .352
24 in TB .357
24 in CHC .325
Slug
23 .488
24 in TB .435
24 in CHC .307
A 50 point drop could be the league adjusting or it could be noise. The Chicago part I think has a lot to do with ballpark fit. But I am also very skeptical generally when the Rays decide to move on from a guy with cheap control years remaining.
Long way of saying, I think I believe in him but I’m not 100% sold either