Whoa! An acrobatic play!
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McTaggart breaks down MLB’s top 30 Astros prospects after the draft, int. signings & trades.
Biggest Jump:
Jump : Dezenzo, IF (Preseason: NR | Midseason: 5) – Dezenzo, a 12th-round pick last year out of Ohio State, posted an impressive 1.102 OPS in 31 games at High-A Asheville to start the year before being promoted to Double-A Corpus Christi. Dezenzo is 23 years old, which makes it tricky to judge his results early in his career, but he hits the ball hard and has a solid approach. He was slashing .253/.341/.445 with six homers and 23 RBIs through 39 games at Double-A while playing first, second and third base.
Fall:
Fall: Misael Tamarez, RHP (Preseason: 13 | Midseason: 30) – Tamarez is having a rough year at Triple-A Sugar Land, going 0-7 with a 5.83 ERA through 19 games (12 starts). His biggest issue has been walks – 42 in 66 1/3 innings – which is partially the result of automated strike zones. Tamarez’s fastball is still performing well, but he hasn’t got into a rhythm with multiple good outings due to the walks and long innings.
Three new draftees make the list as well as two international signees.
He also list top rated tools on the list.
I wonder where Robaina is ranked. He looks like a top prospect to me.
Here’s the first good look at the system since the draft and trade deadline. Ben’s not affiliated with any of the major outlets, but there’s no question he knows his stuff. I’d hazard a guess that these opinions align closer with the organization’s own opinions than, say, Baseball America’s would.
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Awesome!! I love Ben’s work and agree that he knows his stuff. I actually think more highly of him and Spencer Morris than any of the major outlets because of how closely those two follow the Astros minor leagues. Cough, cough, Keith Law, cough, cough…
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What makes this guy an expert? I am asking because he has every guy in AAA’s ETA as next year except one which is 2023 (I assume a typo). In total, there are 12 2023 and 2024 projections.
There have been just 5 debuts this year, in a year full of injuries. I don’t see that number doubling next year.
His list order might be right, (I don’t have any reason to question that) but I question his thought process on his ETA projections. It looks like he was just matching years with levels for the most part.
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That’s a good question and one I had not given much thought to. I assume he isn’t projecting all those AAA guys to make the majors next year—just that given where they are in their development, 2024 is the when each one individually seems likeliest to be ready to contribute. With respect to these particular players, I can’t point to any of them and guess that 2025 or beyond is more realistic than 2024. Though in one sense the most likely ETA for a lot of them would be “never,” I suppose. All that said, it would not surprise me if it’s mostly just based on their level.
But to answer the bigger question of why his observations are likely better than others’, it’s a combination of his extensive knowledge of the system, his (apparent) contacts among data guys in a couple MLB organizations, and his grasp of/attention to the metrics that organizations like the Astros seem to value the most. I don’t think this list accurately reflects industry consensus but I do think it’s probably not far off what the Astros think of their own guys.
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This, this pitch right here.
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That is good to know. With so many “experts” out there it is tough vetting them sometimes.