MLB Pipeline just updated their Top 100 Prospects List. Astros-related changes:
- Hunter Brown (#68 in 2022) is no longer on the “prospects” list, having graduated to the big leagues and logged enough innings
- Drew Gilbert has been added (#96)
2 Likes
Jim Bowden over at The Athletic has some thoughts on Drew Gilbert. Normally, I don’t put much stock in Bowden. But when he has young Mr. Gilbert as the literal number one prospect you should know more about, I’ll listen:
- Drew Gilbert, OF, Astros
Age: 22
B: L T: L
HT: 5-9 WT: 195
Scouting grades:
HIT: 60
PWR: 60
RUN: 55
ARM: 60
FLD: 55
Stats (High A, Double A):
Slash line: .339/.395/.602
2B: 11
HR: 6
RBI: 23
SB: 4
Normally, I would not consider Gilbert an under-the-radar prospect, but given how talented he is and how little national publicity he’s received, I thought it was important to put him at the top of this list. He is just so multi-talented, and has the potential to be an impact player for years to come despite his 5-foot-9 frame. Gilbert has above-average tools across the board, can hit with plus power, and can beat you in so many ways — with his glove, arm, bat, speed, base running and power. His hand-eye coordination is special. He plays with high energy and enthusiasm. It’s time for him to start getting the recognition he deserves.
Astros GM Dana Brown: “Drew has an above average-to-plus tools package, with grit and instincts for the game. A gamer type who is coming to play. (He was) recently promoted to Double A. Threat on the bases, threat in the batter’s box, and will take hits away from hitters. All-around complete player!”
2 Likes
Nice profiles from Fangraphs on their Top 38:
1 Like
This is an interesting set of rankings–some observations.
Hunter Brown is #1, and they put on their hindsight goggles in his writeup, saying that “you can make a pretty good case…that Brown should have been the second-ranked pitching prospect in baseball this offseason after Eury Perez.” Back in February, FG listed him as a “single inning relief pitcher” and ranked him as the #34 overall prospect (the #10 overall pitching prospect). They’ve upped their present grading of Brown’s slider by 5 points on the 20/80 scale, and boosted his curveball and command grades by 10 points.
Yainer Diaz is #2, and while his overall grade (50 FV) stayed the same, there was some vaguely interesting movement in the underlying components since February. Basically a big jump in his hit tool (from low-end platoon bat to above average every day bay), with minor downgrades to his raw power and fielding:
Feb 2023 (Present/Future) → June 2023 (Present/Future)
- Hit: 40/45 → 55/55
- Raw Power: 60/60 → 55/55
- Game Power: 40/50 → 40/50
- Fielding: 45/50 → 40/45
Drew Gilbert is your #3, and Fangraphs now considers him a Top 100 prospect. I loved this description:
“the kind of guy you love to have on your team but hate to play against, with his on-field persona toeing the line between “fiery” and “excessively abrasive.” He’s a spicy heel with the ability to be a well-rounded regular”
The back end of the Astros Top 10 is entirely fresh blood, which is kind of exciting, but it’s also due in part to the fact that previous tenants–Pedro Leon, Joe Perez, Forrest Whitley–have been disappointing so far this season.
At #5 – Ryan Clifford (RF)–the Astros 11th round draft pick last year. Even with his early season success, I hadn’t paid him much mind, but Fangraphs is high on the guy, saying “Some of Clifford’s TrackMan data from the early portion of the season was so absurd that he merited consideration as a possible Top 100 prospect. His high-end exit velos were near the top of the scale and his contact rates were suddenly above-average.”
At #6 – Luis Baez (RF), a big money 2022 signee out of the DR–sounds like a low floor, high ceiling kind of guy.
At #7 – Camilo Diaz (SS/3B), a 2023 international signing (DR)–When he signed, the Astros Int’l Scouting Director tabbed him as a SS, but Fangraphs is putting 3B on him. Astros apparently snagged him away from the Rangers, so any success this kid has will have that little cherry on top.
At #8 - Joey Loperfido (CF/1B) – Loperfido rocketed up this prospect ranking. Last year he didn’t make the Astros top 33 and Fangraphs just kinda threw him in as a possible bench bat in the “Oh yeah, these guys exist too” section at the bottom. Apparently he’s got one of the best “hard hit” rates in the minors, which makes me think the Astros will be aggressive with promotion. Defensively, Fangraphs is non-committal on his position, but the fact that he “could be a plus” at first base is intriguing.
At #9 - Trey Dombroski (LHP) – 4th Round, 2022 – The highest ranked pitcher not named Hunter Brown on this list. I don’t know much about the guy, but based on their grades and narrative descriptions, I’m scratching my head as to why he’s ranked higher than J.P. France. But I won’t complain at all if that’s how things shake out for him!
At #10 - Kenedy Corona (CF) – Part of the return for the Jake Marisnick trade with the Mets a couple years ago. Not even an honorable mention on Fangraphs list last year. He’s hit well at every stop up the ladder, but he had a particularly hot start at Hi-A this year (.360/.448/.600 in 6 games) and got promoted to AA, where he is still adjusting.
Its always interesting to me to see these kinds of lists with relatively low rankings on guys who are actively contributing on the major league roster (i.e., JP France at #12, Corey Julks at #18). It’s also interesting to see guys like Will Wagner and Colin Barber fall down the list so quickly. Importantly, it feels like there’s enough prospect capital (particularly OF) to make a crucial trade running up to the deadline.
The pipeline seems thin on pitching based on this ranking. But I think the Astros are much faster than these third-party rankers at recognizing promising pitchers and they promote them before they gain any real prospect heat. Still, it’d be nice to get another SP at the deadline.
I’ll believe the Astros pitching pipeline is thin when they stop trotting out serviceable MLB starters and relief pitchers pretty much at will when someone goes down due to injury. It hasn’t happened yet in 6 years except for one blip in the 2021 postseason and they still found a way to make it all the way to the WS.
5 Likes
Next one could be Spencer Arrighetti if the need presents itself. I’m hoping it doesn’t of course.
1 Like
BA posted its updated Astros top 30. With Brown graduated, Yainer succeeds him in the top spot followed by Gilbert, Melton, and Clifford. Luis Baez takes the 5 spot, and my boy Zach Dezenzo jumps onto the list at 6. Rounding out the top 10 are France, Loperfido, Arrighetti, and Hensley.
Notable drop for Korey Lee, who sinks all the way to 29.
(Note: looks like the writeups haven’t been updated since the offseason list, aside from newcomers to the T30, but the rankings themselves are new.)
Any chance you post the list? Looks like it’s behind the paywall, which I don’t recall was always the case.
- Yainer Diaz
- Drew Gilbert
- Jacob Melton
- Ryan Clifford
- Luis Baez
- Zach Dezenzo
- J.P. France
- Joey Loperfido
- Spencer Arrighetti
- David Hensley
- Justin Dirden
- Andrew Taylor
- Kenedy Corona
- Colton Gordon
- Miguel Ullola
- Colin Barber
- Forrest Whitley
- Michael Knorr
- Shay Whitcomb
- Will Wagner
- Pedro Leon
- Quincy Hamilton
- Rhett Kouba
- Jose Fleury
- Trey Dombroski
- Joe Perez
- Ronel Blanco
- Grae Kessinger
- Korey Lee
- Camilo Diaz
Some really promising outfielders and corner bats. Basically a wasteland in the infield.
It won’t make me sad if they stop drafting catchers.
1 Like
I wonder where Julio Robaina ranks. I think he would be in my top 30 somewhere.
According to Rome, apparently DIaz has passed the threshold for the MLB ( any player who began 2023 on a Major League Opening Day roster with zero MLB experience and stuck there exceeded the 45-day threshold of prospect eligibility)
So Gilbert is #1 on the MLB Top Prospect list now.
Thanks for posting that. Always interesting to see the BA list and how quickly guys rise or fall in their rankings.
And I agree that we have some rather promising OF prospects (although, not much else). The only untouchables for me right now are Gilbert, Clifford, and maybe Baez.
BP posted their midseason top 50 today. Gilbert makes the cut at 36 and Dezenzo joins him at 42.
That’s WAY higher than anyone else has Dezenzo, I think. Even with his success this season he doesn’t have a very long track record and still has plenty of work to to at 3B, so you have to adore the bat to put him there. But clearly somebody does.
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/83976/2023-prospects-the-midseason-top-50/
By contrast, no Astros on Baseball America’s new top 100.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2023-top-100-prospects/ (paywall)
In an absolutely shocking development, Keith Law puts no Astros in his top 60.
2 Likes
That’s defensible, or at least would be if he was informed enough on the minors to make that call. Phillies twitter is actually roasting him right now for overrating one of their prospects who he clearly knows nothing about.
Speaking of rankings, Luis Baez may be the next Astros prospect to shoot up into the T100. Frankly it would not shock me if he passes Gilbert for the top spot in the system by season’s end. In his first four games since promotion to Fayetteville he’s 7 for 14 with 6 doubles, 3 walks, and 1 strikeout. This after great performances in the FCL earlier this year (.271/.434/.661) and the DSL last year (.305/.351/.552), reportedly with outstanding batted-ball data. From the clips I’ve seen of his hits in Fayetteville, I believe it. Those doubles have gone to every part of the outfield, both corners, alleys, dead center, all hit with authority. He’s done everything right at the plate in his career so far, he just needs to keep doing it. 19 years old.
1 Like
It befuddles me that there are two lists out there of 60 and 100 prospects and Gilbert is on neither. Calls into question the validity and credibility of the lists.
Any scouting reports on Gilbert at CC, or has anyone here seen him as a Hook?
I posted this back in February.
The subject was rookie contributions during the “golden age”
2023: JP France, Yainer Diaz, Hunter Brown, Corey Julks.
Kessinger, Mushinski, and Gage all have 0.2 in very few games.