You are right statistically, but this looks to me more like a double-or-nothing long shot. They do not want to give up on him and do not want to take the chance of giving up too soon on what everyone once thought was a can’t miss prospect. That said, I don’t think the Astros or anyone else see him that way anymore.
Nice piece on Hensley:
The most encouraging thing about Hensley is that there’s enough charge in his bat to keep MLB pitchers honest. There are lots of guys who can post ridiculous walk rates up through the minors but who can’t put up a fight against major league strikes (Nolan Fontana, etc.). But Hensley has the pop to make his eye mean something in the bigs.
I agree with much of what you have said. My point is there is a great deal of room between can’t miss prospect and end of career, especially at 25. I think he is closer to middle of that continuum than at the end of his career.
BP Prospect rankings out:
- Hunter Brown
- Drew Gilbert
- Justin Dirden
- Colin Barber
- Yainer Diaz
- Korey Lee
- Jacob Melton
- Pedro Leon
- Jayden Murray
- Kenedy Corona
Brown and Gilbert slot in at 4 and 5 on their “top talents 25 and under” behind Yordan, Javier, and Pena, but ahead of Abreu.
Some bold calls there.
I am curious: when does a player graduate out of being a “prospect?” I am thinking of Hunter Brown.
When they lose rookie status. For pitchers it’s generally 50 innings. Brown only pitched 20 innings last year.
Ok, thanks. My incorrect assumption was it was based on performance in MLB.
The full qualifications:
A player shall be considered a rookie unless he has exceeded any of the following thresholds in a previous season (or seasons):
• 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues.
• 45 total days on an active Major League roster during the Championship Season (excluding time on the Injured List).
A player must have rookie eligibility to be considered for any MLB rookie awards – such as the American League or National League Rookie of the Year Award – or appear on any MLB Pipeline prospect lists.
If my math is right Hunter loses “prospect” status his 10th day on the active roster, since he won’t get 30 innings before then.
Baseball reference currently has him at 35 days of servicetime.
Brown #43 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 list.