2023 Prospect Rankings

More on the same theme:

BA Pre-Season Top 10 from 2018
RHP Forrest Whitley (languishing at AAA)
OF Kyle Tucker (Career WAR 12.8 and counting)
1B/OF Yordan Alvarez (Career WAR 13.6 and counting)
RHP JB Bukauskas (traded & DFA; Career WAR -0.9)
SS Freudis Nova (injured; on Asheville roster)
RHP Jairo Solis (injured; protected from Rule 5 on AAA roster)
RHP Hector Perez (to BJs in Osuna trade; played 1 game in 2020; claimed off waivers by TB from Orioles in Dec)
RHP Jorge Alcala (to MIN in Presley trade; 0.9 WAR in parts of four years)
RHP David Paulino (to BJs in Osuna trade; played 7 games there in 2018 and 1 for PHI in 2021; career WAR -0.3)
3B JD Davis (to steM after 2018 in mostly minor league deal; 450 ML games - 384 since the trade; Career WAR 2.2)

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That Osuna trade pretty much worked out for nobody

38 saves in 2019. That is working out in my book.

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Better than they usually do. It is hard. These projections are done 3-4 years out, right?

I hear you, but “I am so fucking glad we got Osuna!” will never go away in my mind.

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Osuna was not involved in that situation in any way, shape or form, and he had just given up a game-tying home run.

Kenny Van Doren article on last year’s 2nd round pick Andrew Taylor who like several other pitchers (3rd rounder Michael Knorr, 4th rounder Trey Dombroski, 15th rounder Joey Mancini) was shut down after being drafted. Shut down as in not being assigned to a club, but Taylor was still getting some work in including throwing two bullpens a week in WPB before seeing action in a pair of outings in fall instructional league.

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Baseball America has Hunter Brown at #28 and Yainer Diaz at #82 on their Top 100 Prospects list for 2023.

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In the process of creating the BA Top 100 Prospects list, a number of players were left on the cutting room floor so to speak. Anyway from an initial list of over 200 players (based on polling of front office personnel, scouts and analysts throughout the game), Drew Gilbert and Will Wagner were listed as the two Astros among that larger group not quite making the Top 100.

I asked a BA writer on how it is that Wagner was in consideration for the Top 100 but only at #18 on the Astros Top 30 prospects (see below): “We combine our personal lists and then weigh it against all of the grades. Then we take the list and poll almost every GM, scouts and analysts. Someone voted for him. I think it was [redacted*] but don’t quote me on that.”

*he named a GM here

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Hansen one of at least 3 prospects returning from TJS this season–Jairo Solis (like Hansen a NRI to big league camp) and Blair Henley the others.

I think the digital edition of the Prospect Handbook may be out but one of the BA writers provided me with the remainder of their Top 30 Astros list…

  1. OF Colin Barber
  2. RHP Andrew Taylor
  3. 3B/1B Joe Perez
  4. OF Kenedy Corona
  5. RHP Misael Tamarez
  6. OF Quincy Hamilton
  7. INF Joey Loperfido
  8. 2B/3B Will Wagner
  9. LHP Trey Dombroski
  10. OF Ryan Clifford
  11. RHP JP France
  12. RHP Jaime Melendez
  13. 1B JJ Matijevic
  14. RHP Jose Fleury
  15. RHP Michael Knorr
  16. LHP Parker Mushinski
  17. RHP Shawn Dubin
  18. LHP Colton Gordon
  19. OF Corey Julks
  20. RHP Forrest Whitley

Wow. Whitley at 30 is basically “his career his over, just nobody’s pulled the plug yet”

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Whitley, the perennial prospect…

  • Ranked Houston Astros #6 prospect in 2017 BA handbook
  • Ranked Houston Astros #1 prospect in 2018 BA handbook
  • Ranked Houston Astros #1 prospect in 2019 BA handbook
  • Ranked Houston Astros #1 prospect in 2020 BA handbook
  • Ranked Houston Astros #5 prospect in 2021 BA handbook
  • Ranked Houston Astros #13 prospect in 2022 BA handbook
  • Ranked Houston Astros #30 prospect in 2023 BA handbook

Probably said something similar last year but 7 years has to be a record for # of years showing up on a prospect list.

I guess it makes sense there’d be a wide split on Wagner between those who saw him in the AFL and those who didn’t, but you can’t help but chuckle at the gap between T100 guy and 18th in a so-so system. Kudos to that GM for sticking his neck out. Hope Wagner proves him right. The buzz has certainly been good lately.

“There is no such thing as a pitching prospect”?

He should call Appel for advice.

So who DIDN’T show up on the BA list?

Guys on previous BA list but fell off:
OF Tyler Whitaker (#12 on previous BA list)
RHP Alex Santos (#14)
RHP Jayden Murray (#18) (but he’s an NRI this spring)
RHP Alimber Santa (#23)
SS Christian Gonzalez (#26)
OF Jordan Brewer (#27)
RHP Adrian Chaidez (#28)
RHP Jimmy Endersby (#29) (also an NRI this spring)
OF Matthew Barefoot (#30)

Guys who show up on other prospect lists:
OF Logan Cerny (#12 on FG, #21 on MLB Pipeline)
OF Luis Baez (#18 on FG, #22 on MLB Pipeline)
OF Kenni Gomez (#23 on MLB Pipeline)
OF Zach Daniels (#29 on MLB Pipeline)
C JC Correa (#16 on FG)
LHP Parker Mushinski (#17 on FG)
RHP Edinson Batista (#23 on FG)
RHP Ronel Blanco (#26 on FG)
SS Dauri Lorenzo (#28 on FG)
LHP Julio Robaina (#31 on FG)

Note: FG and MLB Pipeline lists have yet to be updated for '23

'22 draftees who showed up on best debut lists (among ALL draftees, not just Astros):
RHP Nolan DeVos (5th rounder–CB & SL with highest spin rates measured & FB had largest vertical break)
RHP Tyler Guilfoil–(8th rounder–most Ks and lowest ERA and WHIP among all draftees)
SS Zach Dezenzo (12th rounder–highest EV of any player drafted)

Astros thought enough of these guys to hand out non-roster invites:
RHP Devin Conn
RHP Austin Hansen
RHP Joe Record
RHP Matt Ruppenthal (also a standout in AFL)
RHP Jairo Solis
C Luke Berryhill
C Cesar Salazar
C CJ Stubbs
INF Grae Kessinger
1B/OF Scott Schreiber
OF Ross Adolph
OF Marty Costes

Note: only included NRIs not otherwise mentioned above

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I met Austin Hansen in Spring Training ‘18. He was amazingly confident for a 26th round pick or whatever he was, and very polite. He signed my nephew’s ball. Was very impressed with him too in Spring Training a couple years ago. Kid can throw, and has moxie to burn.

ETA: Actually I guess I have to ask my nephew who signed his ball, as Hansen wasn’t an Astro yet. Anyway he was awfully impressive in his one ST cameo. Reminded me of Wade Miller.

When I’ve seen Blanco pitch at Round Rock, he’s looked pretty damn good. I’m a little surprised that he isn’t a bit more highly regarded.

40 IP in 2022 after not pitching in two years is an awful small sample size to say career is over. The Astros think enough of him to keep him on the 40 man roster and protected in the rule 5 draft. That tells me a great deal about how they see his potential. He won’t turn 26 until September. He was the third youngest pitcher on the AAA roster last year.