Keep ‘em coming. We need a spy in Houston’s front office.
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Today especially!
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I’m worried that since the Mets have JV locked up thru at least next season that they will decide it’s better to keep him versus trading him for a lowball offer from Astros. Scherzer was different bc he could opt out after this season.
Do they think JV is going to be getting better in the years to come? They went all in for 2023, without much regard for 2024 and beyond. Giving JV next year was to get him this year. I can’t imagine that would be a hangup for them.
I don’t know if he’ll get better but he’s pitching pretty damn good right now. Even if he pitched to 90% of what he’s doing this year he’d be a valuable piece to their rotation next year. I do not think they are selling this year in an effort to retool the team over the next 3-4 years. I’m quite certain Cohen intends to raid the FA market again in this offseason. If that’s the plan then having JV won’t hurt them.
Hey, I hope I’m wrong. Obviously I’d love to see JV back with the team.
Maybe you are not wrong, but you are pretty damn certain. Hard to be certain today. Hide and watch.
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I’m not saying they’re retooling, just the opposite. They’re living in the moment. So I don’t know that JV being under contract for next year is a reason they wouldn’t unload him today.
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I don’t want to be watching the 2013 Astros next year, or even in 2026 or 2027.
However, prospects are just that. They are the currency of the future but you have no idea how much they will be worth in 3 years or 5 years.
Gas could be $2 per gallon or $5 gallon.
The Astros have kept this window open by developing prospects who contribute but also by using them to obtain high quality pieces to put the team over the top.
Crane has always been willing to add a 1-3 year commitment, its 6+ that has given him pause.
A deal for JV reminds me more of the Grienke trade exactly 4 years ago today.
The Astros gave up their #1 (Seth Beer MLB’s #100 ), #4 Bukauskas, #5 Corbin Martin, and #22 Rojas and the D’Backs kicked in a bit less than 1/3 of Zack’s remaining salary for 2 years + 1 playoff run.
Greinke was pretty solid-average for the Astros (22-9 w/ 3.89 ERA, 3.5 WAR over 51 starts and 300 innings) and helped get them to 2 World Series (as the favorite) and another ALCS.
Every one of us were on cloud 9 when that (huge surprise) deal was announced. And I bet we are all still happy now that it happened.
Apply the same values to a JV deal this year and the deal is: Gilbert, Clifford, Leon, and Dubin + about $20M w/o the option and $31M w/ it.
I would expect a younger, higher upside prospect than Dubin, like Rhett Kouba who is 23 and having a good season at AA and will undoubtably be on top prospect mid season lists when they come out.
That deal would hurt ( especially Clifford IMO), but prospects are like a bix of chocolates.
Maybe, but Beet wasn’t remotely a top 100 prospect iirc. The comp to the Scherzer deal would probably end up Gilbert and one lower level player.
I’m wondering if the Scherzer deal actually increases Verlander’s trade value. He’s clearly the top pitcher that might be available now. However, I’m still a little skeptical that the steM trade him.
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I think Dana Brown is in a tough spot. When the Astros sit down at the trade table they are playing with a much weaker hand than almost anyone else. The Rays, Dodgers, Mariners, Orioles, Twins, Blue Jays and practically everyone else buying at that table, have multiple top 100 ranked prospects they can deal. They are holding face cards while we are not. In my mind, that makes it much more difficult for Brown to go get the top folks available. When I saw the cost paid for Giolito, a rental, it got me to worrying about what we’d be able to do in what is clearly a sellers market. JV might be the one exception if the Astros were willing to take the money on his contract (and it appears they don’t want to) because I don’t think anyone else wants it either. We might get lucky and get JV at the last second again, but I fear if we don’t, we don’t have enough quality in our system to go grab Rodriquez, Paxton, Lorenzen or Flaherty. Even if we do decide to give up Gilbert, which I don’t think we will, almost any other team can give a better package. Do we completely drain the top quality of an overall weakly regarded farm system for a shot to go back-to-back? A large part of me says yes, but I’m not sure the brass will do that. We need to build our system up but it will take some time.
I certainly hope I’m embarrassingly wrong and Brown pulls off a big move.
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Would you say that he’s never in doubt?
Beer was exactly #100 on mlb.com’s top prospect list at the time of the trade.
Gilbert is currently 68th.
But the overal ranking of the other 3 pieces are much further back.
Take Gordon, Gilbert and Clifford out of the queue - there are 6 to 7 prospects we could dangle not to mention a few MLB ready players. Here is my list:
Prospects
- Arrighetti
- Whitley
- Solis
- Dirden
- Barber
- Melton
- Leon
- Perez
Plus we have these guys who have been on the roster or right near
- Blanco
- Bielek
- Dubin
- Hensley
- Bannon
- Kessinger
- Meyers
- Julks
16 players with differing value - not all the players are gonna be dealt because we need depth, but there are a few here that gots to go - their time with the Astros is coming to an end. The right package could bring some value. — Not to mention there are possible moves to be made with Montero, Gage as well.
All I am saying with this — is its possible. Cue the Jim Carrey meme
Is the deadline noon tomorrow or 6pm???
It’s part posturing, part the market is very limited because there are few sellers with good arms available and part the Astros’ farm system just isn’t that good.
Among selling teams, which pitchers do you consider to be worth it.
Mets - Verlander? Yes.
Nationals - Not willing to trade Josiah Gray, so they have nobody of interest.
Pirates - They have shown no willingness to trade Keller, so see my comment about the Nationals.
Cardinals - Flaherty or Mikolas? Decent enough gambles, but neither is pitching great.
Rockies - Nothing of interest
Padres - Not selling unless you overpay by a lot
A’s - Nothing of interest
Tigers - Eduardo Rodriguez? Yes. Lorenzen? Yes, at the right price because he’s never done anything in his career like this season.
Royals - Nothing of interest
Guardians - Most of their talented arms are on the IL (Bieber, McKenzie, Quantrill - who has had a rough year)
Twins - Perhaps you could persuade them to trade Gray or Maeda (free agents after the year), but you will either have to overpay or give them MLB-ready hitters.
White Sox - Cease would be really expensive, and, from all accounts, they don’t want to trade him. Kopech isn’t really an upgrade.
Nobody in the AL East is selling.
Maybe you could persuade the Marlins to part with one of their many talented pitchers for a hitter, but do the Astros have a MLB-ready hitter the Marlins could immediately plug into their lineup that the Astros are comfortable trading away?
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6 eastern tomorrow, 5 central.
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6pm EST
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You are very right about the lack of “real” options.
The Astros are committed to Framber, Javier, and to some extent Brown in the rotation so all 3 of them need to be pitching well for the Astros to have a chance.
That leaves France (currently) as the #4 SP. Who out there is an upgrade?
I think you need to add Rodriguez from Detroit. By all accounts Brown has been talking with them about him. High risk with the cost and opt out but among the few available who would definitely be a playoff starter.
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You’re right about Eduardo Rodriguez. He’s pitched well this year and has a track record of success from his time in Boston. I forgot about him. Just added him to my post above.
We also have to consider Jose Urquidy in the equation as well. He’s a risk after the long layoff due to shoulder inflammation, but he’s had postseason success with the Astros and performed as a solid middle-of-the-rotation caliber starting pitcher during his time with the team.