This is what David Ignatius referred to as swallowing the porcupine a few weeks ago in WaPo:
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One bizarre quirk of geography is that - as huge as Russia is - it does not have access to the open seas without going through a choke point controlled by someone else. It’s why he wants to take back Ukraine and then the Balkans.
And Biden is reportedly considering sanctions targeted at Russia’s central bank. Would be unprecedented, and possibly crippling for the Russian economy because the Bank of Russia is primarily responsible for the stability of the country’s currency.
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I think it’s inevitable once we coordinate things with Europe.
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I hope this is true.
It’s been the agenda since Ivan. Even before. Turkey may have remembered that Russia has coveted Constantinople for more than a millennium.
It’s such a stupid move by Putin. He could have gotten what he really needed: a pledge to not join NATO without war. He might have had what he wanted: a pledge not to join the EU plus long term contracts in agriculture and energy with honest negotiations.
Now, he’s going to be lucky to get anything. At best, a pledge with a time limit for Ukraine to not join NATO. EU will grease the skids for Ukrainian admission and Sweden and maybe even Finland will want NATO protection and are very likely to apply and be admitted. Putin will lose influence in Georgia and Belarus. This could topple Belarus’ autocracy as well.
As of now, Russia is not confirmed to hold any Ukrainian city. Amazing.
Putin has swallowed a porcupine.
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Also, the US and EU kicking them out of the SWIFT system is looking more and more possible.
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I think a truth of modern warfare is that while capturing land mass is relatively easy, guerilla tactics
Make taking and holding dense urban areas problematic at best.
This is the “nuclear option” of economic sanctions. The collapse of the Russian economy would be inevitable.
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I’m less certain about Finland joining NATO, although only marginally so. They have such a history of staunch independence and spent much of the 20th century threading the needle diplomatically between Europe and the bully of a neighbor on their Eastern border. The younger generation is more in favor of joining NATO, but the government shows little inclination to do so. Who knows? Maybe this changes all of that?
As a Fin I know recently said, a key difference between Finland and Ukraine is that the Finnish military is better trained and equipped. And while their standing army is ~ 300,000, they have the ability to organize 900,000 strong reserves in a matter of days. That’s a hell of a deterrent.
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I no longer have a subscription to The Economist (can’t remember why I let it expire) but they have a recent article positing that making that move may not work out as intended. I’d be very curious to know what their reasoning is.
Huge difference in terrain, also.
Here’s the road sign thing:
And it’s not like they don’t have a recent history of beating backs Russian invasion.
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This is interesting (geographical) context:
He clarified that tweet a little later
I am praying for Ukraine, but not very optimistic.
That’s disappointing. Of course, they’re probably very busy so…
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We’re going to find out the Ukrainian equivalent of a wolverine pretty soon.
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There was a solid piece about her in the New Yorker a few months ago. Anyone who’s interested should track it down. If Putin gets his ass kicked AND she and her supporters manage to drive out Lukashenko, well, I can’t imagine a better outcome.
The picture of that road sign was obviously shopped but the sentiment is laudable. What they’re saying literally is ‘on a dick,’ as in Go get on a dick. But as much as I love a good obscene insult, I think grandma’s ‘Here take some sunflower seeds and put them in your pocket’ is the clear winner here.
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