The Ukraine Invasion

“Those who do not study history are doomed to repeat it.”

I think the first part may be superfluous.

Oil money?

It was caught on video. It’s next-level don’t give a fuckitude.

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This is also scary

Had those same thoughts earlier today.

No, Russia doesn’t suck.

Putin does.

Totally right. I misspoke. The entirety of a people are not defined by their “leader”. Recent U.S. history alone should have made me choose my words more carefully.

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It seems Putin has asked for troops from Kazakhstan to help in Ukraine.

They said Nah, we good.

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Why doesn’t Biden just put Abbott in charge of taking down the Russian power grid??

Fuck Putin.

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There’s a poignant scene in “Battle of Britain” when a suit from the Ministry of Defense questions Air Chief Marshall Dowding over the veracity of the RAF’s kill count. Dowding (Lawrence Olivier) swats away the question and cuts to the chase:

“If we’re right, they’ll give up. If we’re wrong, they’ll be in London within a week.”

I hope these reports are right.

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Reportedly, the Ukrainians are all in on a civilian resistance/insurgency as and when Russia wins the military campaign. If this comes to pass, this will just be the next thing that went wrong for Putin, because trying to control a country the size of Ukraine is going to be expensive in terms of men, materiel and money, and definitely not what he wanted.

This is…weird. I don’t know enough (i.e. nothing) about her, or internal Belarusian politics to have an opinion on if this could turn into anything more than a symbolic gesture. Video of her speech in the 1st tweet.

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They relaxed the laws re: ownership of firearms 3 weeks ago, and have been supplying weapons and training citizens. I’m assuming IEDs are inevitably in the cards, the West has unfortunately learned all too much about their ease of use and effectiveness.

This last part is legit: “But I don’t know if the Russians think similarly, or if they just bake incompetence into their assumptions.” When I was in Air Force ROTC, we used to spend some weekends with the Air National Guard unit at FAT. For a 3 month period, they had a unit from the Bulgarian Air Force there, trained in Russia in MIG’s and now retraining in F-16’s. One weekend, were all walking the flight line, picking up every pebble and piece of tiny debris. One of the Bulgarians exclaimed “this is nuts” and when I asked him why, he said “if these planes can’t withstand intake of this type of debris, they’ll never last in a real fight”. It sparked a long discussion about what they were seeing here in the US vs. what their experience was back there. They expect imperfect conditions. They expect things and people to fail. And, every part of their engineered end-to-end solution, including people, is designed accordingly.

From an analytical perspective only, it will be interesting to see if they still operate that way and if we see evidence of it as this drags on.

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Saw video on SM showing people making Molotov Cocktails.

I saw news reports that the Ukrainian government has actually instructed people on making them.

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Zelenskyy is also winning the propaganda war. Whether or not he has actually stayed in Kyiv and personally taken up arms, he has become a global hero in a matter of days.

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Unconfirmed, but huge if true: Turkey (and therefore NATO) has decided to close the Bosporus to Russian shipping and the process of removing Russia from the SWIFT system has begun.

This is confirmed: Road signs all over Ukraine have been changed to “Go Fuck Yourself”, be it avenue, road, highway or street.

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