The Ukraine Invasion

ОтЛИчно!

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Gesundheit

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1650045911165222912

Feint or is this where the offensive is coming?

Don’t ask me man. I only work here.

I guess it could be a feint until it works and then the feint is the counter offensive. Or not. The Ukrainians are crafty.

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Impossible to get enough armor across the Dnipro River for this to be a main thrust. They can cover some number of troops with right bank artillery, but I can’t imagine this will be a main vector.

Russia has mustered most of what they have available in the Donbas for one final push to finally take Bakhmut. I think it might be their last significant offensive-and it’s not that significant. The AFU has used Bakhmut to bleed the Russians. Ukraine has deployed some of their better troops to hold the flanks and prevent encirclement, but much of the fighting has been by the Territorial Defense Force, which are somewhat lesser troops.

I think and hope there’s a multi-wave Ukrainian offensive coming and they will let loose a wave of gold and blue whoopass that will startle the world and terrify the Rashists. When a secure corridor to the Sea of Azof is established, Russians in Crimea are fucked and Putin will scream for negotiations.

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Yeah it’s pretty unlikely. This might be more shaping missions and as a feint or way to goad maneuvers from the Russians. But at the same time you never know with the Ukrainians. They seem to do what is not expected or what people say is impossible. It does seem like driving a wedge to the sea is the move though. Although I would be surprised if there is another smaller drive from the Northeast too.

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Reports are coming in that Ukraine attacked the Black Sea Fleet with water drones again.

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Screenshot 2023-05-01 at 10.50.17 AM

Could be the start of a proper counter-offensive. Bakhmut is just north of Donetsk itself; they could be trying to cut the Russian forces in half, isolating the south including Mariupol.

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It will be hard for them to get a substantial bridgehead there, though.

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They’ve been doing a lot of battlefield shaping and hitting logistics/resources lately…

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Someone’s scared…

Many important things important to supplying an army are burning in Russia. Trains are being blown up and derailed. The occupiers are on edge. We might have our offensive very soon.

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:eyes:

"A country trying to assassinate your country’s leader? Can’t relate. "

-Ukraine

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Keep trying. Practice makes perfect.

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I wonder if this wasn’t Ukraine, but Russia is saying it was because that’s less embarrassing than admitting it was internal.

That might explain why it failed.

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I definitely believe the public statements of the Russian government.

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