The offseason that may never end

TalkZone
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Setting aside the looming lockout on December 1, this is obviously a pivotal offseason for the good guys. There will be moves that will happen before the lockout, like tendering contracts to arb players. The following list is guys in arb or have options that need to be decided, along with arb projections by MLBTR

Isaac Peredes - $15M but has a $13.35M team option
Peter Lambert - $4.6M
Jeremy Pena - $13.1M
Jake Meyers - $3.6M
Hunter Brown - $6.8M
Yainer Diaz - $6.3M
Hayden Wesneski - $1.8M
Nick Allen - $1.8M
Bennett Sousa - $1.3M
Taylor Trammell - $1.5M
Ronel Blanco - $1.4M

Players eligible for FA/money coming off the books

Tatsuya Imai - $18M player option for 27
Bryan Abreu - $5.8M
Steven Okert - $2.3M
Enyel De Los Santos - $1.6M
Daulton Varsho - ~$3M
Lamont Wade Jr - $1M
Christian Vasquez - $1M
Ryan Weiss - $5M team option for 27
Lance McCullers Jr - ~$15M

Fangraphs has the Astros CBT payroll around $195M before factoring in players MLB minimum players. In 26 this figure was just under $9M, that likely goes up with the new CBA, so estimate maybe $11-$12M. Putting the Astros estimate currently around $207M, it does not look like this number includes Imai’s $18 that he will absolutely take and it also doesn’t include Weiss’ $5M which surely will not be picked up. So adding Imai’s $18M moves the number up to $225 or about $19M under the 2026 CBT.

There may not be a ton of money available to spend again this offseason but they have to add OF and pitching pitching pitching.

Other questions, do Pena/Paredes get traded this offseason or do they carry them into the season as both are FAs after next year?

Do they look to FA or trade for SP?

Will Bagwell and co give Okert and Abreu massive deals ala Montero last time we didn’t have a GM?

Will we have a GM before any of these other questions have to be answered?

I’ll stop rambling now. Fuck the Dodgers, Rangers, Yankees, Mariners, Cardinals and Cubs

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Feels like Meyers is the obvious non-tender candidate here, with maybe Trammell, Sousa and Blanco maybe but Trammell being most likely of those 3.

I think I would like to see Cam Smith take over in CF next season. I think he can handle it defensively and it’s easier to carry a below average bat there and much easier to find a RF on the market than CF.

They have to bring in multiple starters and I’m not talking about the scrap heap hope and prayer guys, legit starters.

I would probably trade one or both of Pena and Paredes. I don’t see this team as a World Series threat next year so keeping them to lose them for nothing this time next year strikes me as dumb. Correa can be the 3B, trade for a SS(or extend Pena but that ship has sailed) with more control and go from there.

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Really sucks having two great players like Pena and Paredes with only one year left on their deals heading into what will most likely be a shortened season because I think that probably means you will get less value back right off the rip in any trade of either.

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That’s very true, just bad timing. I do wonder if Paredes might be just the kind of player that would take a 4 or 5 year extension at a reasonable number with the plan to park him at 1B. He’s far more valuable here with the Crawford boxes than he would be in other places which might drive his price tag down enough for Crane to do it. You can eat most of Walkers money with only 1 year left and maybe get something in return for him.

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Who the hell’s Ryan Weiss?

During the season I wondered more than a few times about Cam in center, for the reasons you list.

I think the brutally obvious, slam dunk no brainer move is to trade Peña and extend Paredes, especially if you find a Cubs like group of idiots happy to receive a Tucker style fleecing before Peña inevitably ends up a Yankee or a Dodger.

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I think so too but replace him with a younger SS, either from a Paredes trade, or someone you get for Peña. Correa needs to be at 3rd to have any shot of staying reasonably healthy and I swear to god if Allen is your starting SS at the start of next season I will personally kick every member of the front office in the nuts

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Get in line, it’s right over there.

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If they put any plan together where Correa is feature I’ll personally punch them in the nuts then take their lunch money.

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Would counting on Correa to play a full season be more an act of folly than one of desperation?

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I agree with you on the Cam to CF thing and trading Pena/Paredes. It is at least a re-tool if not rebuild time.

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I’d also look at trading Diaz. Get a one year stopgap to bridge to Schiavone and Janek.

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Folly born of desperation.

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I still think being a fulltime 3B at least gives him a shot, SS does not

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I had high hopes for Diaz when he was acquired.

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He’s good! But not so good that you can’t trade him.

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My two cents, but I don’t think either of those two guys are Houston’s long term answer behind the plate. Schiavone is certainly a helluva great story. But he’s not a great defensive catcher (yet) and has a career 35% K rate in the minors. I’d like to see him put together a strong season in AA/AAA before I put too much stock in him. Janek is looking more and more like a bust. He’s better defesnsively than Schiavone but there are serious questions about his bat. His career K rate is at least just under 30%. Next year is going to be telling for both of them.

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