According to league sources, the centerfielder is seeking approximately $175 million. The Mets, per sources, had been willing to offer a five-year deal for somewhat less than $150 million. The Toronto Blue Jays, meanwhile, recently made an opening offer to Springer in the $115 million range, per sources briefed on those talks (Springer’s agent, Casey Close, did not respond to a request for comment). With Lindor on board, the Mets are less likely to sign Springer. Here’s why: The team will not exceed the $210 million luxury tax threshold this offseason.
Maybe not yours but there’s a limit to the team’s financial resources so if you spend on Springer then there’s less to spend on the rest of the roster.
You know they won’t go over the luxury tax threshold. Where does our payroll currently sit?
The Houston Astros are “the most aggressive” team in pursuing high-leverage relievers, according to a person familiar with the situation. Reliever Blake Treinen was of strong interest to the Astros before he re-signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Such a move would have given the Astros two All-Star caliber relievers to pair with Ryan Pressly, with one team official remarking, “If we get to the seventh (inning) with the lead, game over.” The Astros, meanwhile, continue to pursue Hendriks and have also shown interest in free-agent reliever Brad Hand, according to league sources.
Kyle Schwarber off the board as he was signed earlier today by the Nats…
CFs
Contract predictions for Jackie Bradley, Jr. have ranged from 2 yrs/$16MM to 3 yrs/$30MM.
If the reports of the Rays shopping Kevin Kiermaier in basically a salary dump are true, he might be had for a relatively low prospect cost. Owed a guaranteed $26MM over the next 2 years.
Cubs didn’t want to pay Albert Almora an estimated $1.5MM in arbitration and cut him loose. Hard to see him as an everyday player in center but more likely a 4th or 5th outfielder. 27 years old.
Others: Marisnick
Corner OFs
Eddie Rosario hit .277/.310/.478 over 6 seasons with Minnesota and his .257/.316/.476 numbers in 2020 was actually fairly in line with those career numbers. But the Twins balked at paying him the roughty $10MM or so he might have earned in arbitration. LF only. Lefty hitter. 29 years old.
Another corner outfielder hits the market as the Braves non-tender Adam Duvall. The 32 year old hit .237/.301/.532 in 57 games in 2020. MLBTR projected him to earn $4MM in arbitration. LF only.
Set to earn $2.5MM in arbitration, the Rockies weren’t about to give that to David Dahl given his extensive injury history. He missed the entire 2017 season with a stress reaction in a rib that also created a back issue. In 2018 he fractured his right foot and missed over two months. His extremely poor 2020 apparently was the result of a right shoulder injury which required surgery in September. Missed extensive time in the minors as well. Can play some CF. Age 27. Lefty hitter. Signed by TEX–1 yr/$3MM
Cubbies didn’t want to spend $8MM (or thereabouts) on Kyle Schwarber who shit the sheets in 2020 with a .188/.308/.393 line. Can he rebound to the .250/.339/.531 player he was in 2019? Lefty hitter. Age 28. LF only.Signed by WAS–1 yr/$10MM.
Nats declined the $10.5MM option on Adam Eaton for 2021 after he hit just .226/.285/.384 in 41 games this past season. The 32 year old did hit .279/.365/.428 in 151 games in 2019. An option in RF. Lefty hitter. Signed by CWS–1 yr/$8MM
Hunter Renfroe was DFA’d by the Rays after a poor 2020 (.156/.252/.393 in 42 games). The 29 year old hit .231/.291/.486 from 2017-2019 with the Padres and averaged nearly 30 home runs a year. The MLBTR estimate for his 2021 arbitration salary was close to $4MM. Another option in RF. Signed by BOS–1 yr/$3.1MM.
The Indians pulled the plug on Tyler Naquin rather than pay him an estimated $2MM. The 29 year old former Klein Collins HSer and Aggie has played all 3 OF positions. .218/.248/.383 in 40 games in 2020 after hitting .288/.325/.467 in 89 games in 2019. Lefty hitter.
The White Sox balked at paying Nomar Mazara nearly $6MM in arbitration salary after a subpar .228/.295/.294 2020 season over 42 games. He went .268/.318/.469 in 116 games with the Rangers in 2019. Another lefty hitter and possible option in RF. Just 26 years old.
The Reds acquired Brian Goodwin for their stretch run in 2020 but he didn’t really produce in the 20 games he played for them so they kicked him to the curb rather than pay an estimated $3MM in arb salary. Came from the Angels where in the best stretch of his career hit .258/.327/.469 in 2019-2020. I don’t think he’s a particularly good defender but has played all 3 outfield positions. 30 years old and like most of the available corner guys is a lefty hitter.
Mel Rojas Jr. is a KBO refugee perhaps viewed as a starter but more likely winding up as a 4th or 5th outfielder. Hit .349/.417/.680 in 2020 in the offense-happy league. If MLB bloodlines are your thing, dad pitched in MLB for a decade and is related to the Alou clan. 30 years old and may be a fit for RF. Switch-hitter. Signed by Hanshin (NPB)–2 yrs/$5MM
A healthier version of Aledmys Diaz? Former Astro Kiké Hernández fits the bill. 29 years old.
Speaking of utility guys, Brad Miller is primarily an infielder but does have some experience in the outfield as well. Last offseason the now 31 year old Miller signed a 1 yr $2MM FA deal with the Cards for whom he hit .232/.357/.451 in 48 games. He hit .260/.329/.565 in 79 games for the Indians and Phillies in 2019. Another lefty hitter.
Others: Brantley, Marcell Ozuna, Joc Pederson
Relievers
Projected for a roughly $5MM payday in arbitration, the Reds said no to Archie Bradley. Has a 1.197 WHIP with 259 Ks in 232 IP since being moved to the pen in 2017. Age 28.
After a career year in 2019 (1.018 WHIP, 23 saves), Hansel Robles was miserable in 2020 with a 1.74 WHIP although in a paltry 17 innings. Not worth the estimated $4MM arbitration salary said the Angels and punted on him. 30 years old.
Matt Andriese posted a mediocre 1.33 WHIP over his first 5 big league seasons but lowered that to 1.00 in 32 innings with the Angels in 2020. Evidently LAAA didn’t think that was sustainable or didn’t believe it was worth an estimated $2MM in arbitration so they bid him goodbye. 31 years old. Signed by BOS–1 yr/$2.1MM
Matt Wisler would have made slightly more than $1MM had he not been non-tendered by the Twins. K’d 35 in 25 innings in 2020 with a 1.145 WHIP. Will be looking for his 6th organization after having been traded 3 times, sold for cash once and waived once in the last 6 years. 28 years old. Signed by SF–1 yr/$1.15M
33 year old Ryan Tepera is a former Brazoswood HSer and SHSU-ex who was let go by the Blue Jays in 2019 after 5 seasons with them rather than pay him a projected $1.6MM in arb salary for 2020. He was then picked up by the Cubs in a $900K deal. His 1.403 WHIP this season in just 21 IP wasn’t anywhere close to the 1.156 WHIP he put up with Toronto during his 5 years there. However he did whiff 31. Chicago made the decision not to pay him the $1.2MM he would have been owed in arb and non-tendered him. I think he gets offered only a minor league deal this offseason. Maybe a return to his hometown?
As has already been noted in the thread Jeff Passan said that the Astros today were pursuing Liam Hendriks. Hendricks is alleged to want a 4-year deal. At the outset of free agency various prognosticators estimated he would would receive a contract of anywhere between 2 yrs/$24MM to 3 yrs/$42MM.
Others: Brad Hand, Alex Colomé, Trevor Rosenthal, Blake Treinen(signed by LAD–2 yrs/$17.5MM), Pedro Baez, Kirby Yates, Shane Greene, Jeremy Jeffress, Greg Holland(signed by KC–1 yr/$2.8MM)
Catchers
If Click is looking for a backup catcher, Curt Casali could fit the bill. Played that role in Cincy the last 3 seasons where he hit .260/.345/.440 over that span and (best I can tell) seemed to have played adequate defense. Apparently was set to make around $2MM in arbitration. (signed by SF–1 yr/$1.5MM)
Reportedly 3 @ $54M. Something tells me the Astros, who were supposedly interested, were no where close to that number. Seems like a pretty big overpay to me.
According to Spotrac, the Astros’ payroll sits at about $176M for luxury tax purposes, which is calculated by totaling up $158M for 40-man salaries, $15.5 for player benefits, and an estimated $2.5M for minor league salaries.
That leaves Click with $34M to spend without exceeding the $210M luxury tax threshold for a second consecutive year.
Springer is reportedly asking for a $175M contract, which (if a 5-year deal) would put him on par with Anthony Rendon’s $35M/yr. contract. Mets have reportedly offered 5/$150M; Blue Jays have reportedly offered 5/$115M. Assuming that $210M is a hard cap, signing Springer likely means you wouldn’t see any material upgrades elsewhere.
Thanks Andy, plus if clubs have decided they don’t want to go over the threshold, don’t they hold back a little payroll for flexibility to take on more at the trade deadline?
Stopping short of the threshold to address in-season needs is common.
Owners treat the luxury tax threshold as a much firmer “cap” than I think it really is–a team has to really flout the threshold before the penalty grows some sharp teeth. For example, last year, Houston went over the cap by $15M and only paid a $3M tax. And even with the escalating penalty for consecutive overages, exceeding the threshold by a similar amount this year would only be a $4.5M tax. That’s not a huge deterrent in the abstract–the governing condition is more likely to be the state of the team’s operating revenues.