I’m pulling this out of the Asheville Flooding thread because it’s very off-topic in that thread. Also, Waldo has been missing all the fun and I know he has a solar system so he can weigh in with real world knowledge.
Anyway, for shits and giggles I ran some numbers on solar-estimate.org. FYI, I got this estimate without having to give anything more than my home address, so while I may get some junk mail out of it I should be free of phone or email spam.
The site asked some basic questions about my home. I have a two-story townhome with a south-facing roof that gets uninterrupted sun and has Lugo-esque levels of rake; all of which I believe is ideal for getting optimal performance from solar.
Based on my current usage (~1,000kWh/month), the site recommended a solar system size of 15.2kW. I opted to include a battery system because the whole point here is to alleviate DERPCOT’s unreliability.
TRIGGER WARNING: Here comes the math.
My last bill: $170 (9/28-10/28)
Estimated bill with solar/battery system: $4 (yes…four dollars and zero cents)
Estimated savings: $166
Estimated monthly payment net of tax credits: $193
[based on 100% financing, zero down]
Net monthly cost of system purchase: $27
Now, there are a lot of unknowns in these numbers. They estimate the system cost (after incentives) at $23k to $33k. That’s a big variance. If the $193 finance charge is based on $23k (most likely), then it could balloon up to $283 assuming that it goes up in a straight line with the system cost.
Speaking of the rate, what is it? Not disclosed; neither is the loan term. I am assuming 25 years on the loan term because they do provide the total expected savings over 25 years: $60,972 in my case.
So, theoretically, worst case for me to have a solar/battery system capable of essentially zeroing out my utility bill is $283. My average utility bill for the last 12 months has been $154. So the overpowered system the site recommends is going to cost me $129 net per month to buy, or $38,700 over 25 years.
That math doesn’t math. But, as I said, I think this is an overpowered system and I’m not even sure my roof has enough square footage to host 15.2kW of solar panels. There is also no explanation as to the size of the battery system either.
I am sure that with a more efficiently-planned system and some negotiation, those prices will come down. Would I make the investment for, say, a net $100/month. Maybe. I would need to do some research as to the resale value of home solar, i.e. how much of a value bump do I get for having the solar system? Because if I’m paying $100/month but I’m going to get it all back when I sell, then it becomes a much better bet.
For the record, it would take me 9 years to pay off a $7,000 generator at $100/month (at 10% interest).