Sac fly makes it 4-2
Okertās been good all year so Iām gonna try to keep my cool but god fucking dammit
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Wilson swipes 3B
Heās been good, but not today.
Intentional walk to Ramirez
Guardians pick up a pair on the error. End of seven, 4-2 Guardians
To the 9thā¦Astros chasing a pair
Yainer with a 1-out knock. Tying run to the plate
Jake with another hit, his fourth today!
Smith lines out, Yainer to 3B. Up to Melton
Melton grounds out weakly to end it
Astros go down 4-2
I have no clue why Espada let Melton hit there with the tying run on base.
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Because he had given up on the game before it started.
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Two excellent starts to begin his Astros tenure.
Which gets/got me thinking. They find these guys, work with them a bit, have them pitch to their strengths, pitch to higher velocity and ditch their beloved yet poor outcome pitches and their careers are transformed. Until they blow out their shoulder or elbows and need TJS. So, the question I have is: if you are a middling, mediocre pitcher, do you look for opportunities to come to the Astros to transform your career if you know that 1) youāll get markedly better, 2) youāll likely need TJS a year or two in and 3) theyāll stick with you thru rehab and see if you have mended well and slot you back in or, if not, they let you go. Is that a chance you take?
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Since Iām too lazy to do the research, what evidence is out there that the Astrosā pitchers need TJS at a statistically significant higher rate than other clubs?
Anecdotally, with no facts to back it up, the teams that I feel like have had the most starting pitcher injuries the last couple of years have been the Astros, Dodgers and Rays. These are also probably the 3 best āturn your career aroundā teams when it comes to pitching. Is there a connection? Fuck if I know, and maybe the premise is completely off base. I might try to dig around and see if I can find anything.
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Just a quick and dirty look through every team, specifically looking for guys out with TJ.
Astros, Dodgers, White Sox and Mets lead with 4 each. A couple of teams have 3. A few have none. Obviously, this is only 1 data point and tells us nothing. Iām pretty busy at work today but if I have time, Iāll see what I can find for a larger data set.
Since TJS surgery was first performed on Tommy John in 1974, Astros have made up 2.54% of all surgeries (66 of 2596 surgeries across all levels of MLB and MiLB baseball). Using the Astros latest era beginning with the hiring of Jeff Luhnow (hired in Dec 2011, operating starting the 2012 season) and assuming a year for the analytics mindset to percolate through the system so analyzing all TJSās starting with the year 2013, the Astros have had 3.06% (50 of 1634 surgeries) of all surgeries. Both below the āequal shareā line of the Astros being 3.33% (1 of 30) of MLB teams. Starting with the James Click era in Feb of 2020, the Astros had 2.64% of TJSā (16 of 606) in professional ball.
Narrowing to just active pitchers on the MLB roster, the story is only marginally different. The first two āeraāsā are not materially different between all players in the system and those on the MLB roster but in the last Click+Brown era, there appears to be a statistically significant difference between minor league and major league rosters with the major league roster participants ticking above the overall long-term MLB average.
Again, since TJS surgeries were first performed, the Astros have made up 2.56% of all surgeries (17 out of 664 surgeries). During the Jeff Luhnow era starting with the year 2013, the Astros have had 2.97% (10 out of 337 surgeries) of all surgeries. Starting with the James Click era in Feb of 2020, the Astros had 4.02% of TJSā (7 of 174 surgeries), again, assessing just MLB players.
So, there is not an appreciable difference between the Astros and the MLB average of teams with players that need the surgery but there is an upward trend, relative to the league on the Astros MLB team in the last 5 years.
All data was compiled using this great, frequently updated and publicly available list:
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Of those 6, 1 was 2020(JV) and the rest have been in the last two calendar years
Since 2020, the Astros have had 6 guys needing TJS
Justin Verlander in 2020
None in 2021
None in 2022
Luis Garcia in 2023
Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier in 2024
Hayden Wesnewski and Ronel Blanco in 2025
I donāt know if thatās significantly more than other teams have had over the same stretch.