Already sent @das a pm requesting the straight dope about my next 24 hours but then it occurred to me this is the sort of thing the board tends to sink its teeth into, and why keep the crisis all to myself?
Apparently we’re eyeing potentially record flooding. It’s being compared to the after effects of Hurricane Frances, which greeted me in 2004 when I was a renter and college student pretty freshly relocated from Austin. I remember looking both ways before turning, on my way to campus because I didn’t yet know the world was canceled, and seeing downhill to my left a river instead of an intersection.
Anyway, have come a long way since then.
15 inches of rain is the latest estimate, I think, between now and tomorrow afternoon.
Sharing my reply to Devin here since I suspect there will be quite a few in the path of Helene:
Hi there, Devin. If you live in a flash flood prone area, now is the time to head out to a safer location. You are right in the crosshairs of the heaviest rains and the heaviest flash flooding potential.
That’s 8-12" of rain. I suspect you’ve had big rain events there before so you’ll have to gage how you specific place handles those kinds of water volumes typically.
As you know, living in a mountainous place like Asheville, the way the water flows can be quite different over a few miles. Think back to other big events (like big rain after a big snow or other tropical events) and let that influence your decisions. 8-12" is a lot of water but not catastrophic for every place in an overall landscape.
The storm is up to 130mph. And, I suspect it is not done intensifying. This image from a loop a few minutes ago tells it all. See the little fingers on the northern eyewall? Those are called mesovorticies and they represent small (around 5 miles across) areas of enhanced vertical and horizontal motion, Basically, strong tornadoes embedded in the overall 130mph circular motion of the eyewall. They can be well over 200mph in a rapidly strengthening storm like this.
Much of the kinetic energy of the storm is just off the surface so 130mph at the surface can be 20-30% stronger up 2-4K feet. When the storm makes landfall, the frictional convergence of the land will often make these stronger winds mix down. And, because the storm is moving fast at 25 knots and accelerating, it will make it up to the hills of N. Georgia quite fast, bringing these upper winds to bear on the hills before the storm has time to completely spin down.
Then it will stall and dump tons of water. Not a good situation.
Hang in there Devin, Ty and anyone else in its path. The mere the descriptions of this storm make me shudder.
On a lighter note, yesterday I was on a call with someone who lives in St. Augustine . He said he expects he’ll be fine, but as a die hard FSU fan and alum his only positive thought is that maybe the Hurricane Gods will pick up his quarterback and send him back to Oregon.
We got smacked around a bit but for the most part, got off pretty lucky. I’m thinking good thoughts for anyone who is in the path of this thing. Been chatting with a buddy of mine in ATL and he said they’ve already had over 5” of rain. That’s insane.
Have friends that live in Givens Estates off Sweeten Creek Road. Surrounding hills are really steep. Looks like they could have problems. Any idea what they might be facing.
We moved to Greeneville in NE Tennessee in 2002. I remeber the 04 flooding. We have moved from Birmingham and were used to tornado warnings on a regular basis and rare flash food warnings. In NE TN, we got used to flash flood warnings all the time and only had one tornado warning in 14 years (April 27, 2011).
All those mountain streams over flow their banks in a hurry! I learned to respect the flash flood warnings as much as I did the tornado warnings in Alabama. Be Safe!
![[Image of WPC Flash Flooding/Excessive Rainfall Outlook]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0924WPCERO+gif/211601WPCERO_sm.gif)
![[Image of U.S. rainfall potential]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0924WPCQPF+gif/211601WPCQPF_sm.gif)
