While Ken Paxton is one of the worst human beings in history, never forget that John Cornyn is an horrific piece of shit.
“Some of you are going to die…but it’s a sacrifice I’m willing to make.”
If your boss is on the list, there is no list.
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Look, fuck Cornyn in general, but trying to praise the efforts of saving those who survived is not what I’m going to kick him for.
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I read it as him deflecting the issue of the dead, ignoring the fact that all of the survivors were left in harms way unnecessarily too.
To wit: it is coming out that, while the NWS forecast the storms/rainfall accurately, the lower administrative staffers who would spread that word to those who needed to know were fired in the DOGE purge.
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Could you give a source for this? I’ve been mulling on this for days, and can’t get to the point of seriously criticizing the NWS’s performance. I don’t know their SOP for issuing flash flood warnings (whether it’s more art than science), and am still confused when the FF warning was issued for the area of Camp Mystic, but it seems reasonable that the NWS can basically say “We did our job, it is not our responsibility to make you heed or act on our warnings.”
The more anecdotal info I hear, it sounds like too many people either ignore warnings, don’t know how to react to a warning of just didn’t get it for one reason or another. Also, I’ve concluded that too many people are simply unaware of their surroundings, specifically, if you are camping near a stream and it is poring either on you or upstream of you, you need the spidey sense to stay alert and be ready to move to higher ground.
Bottom line, I’ve concluded that it’s less a failure of government and more just the world today. In other words, I’d be surprised if the inhabitants of Hunt in 1900, before radar and modern communication, would have been caught near the river during a flood event. They would have likely lost their home, but had the sense to move to higher ground.
Here’s some reading that will raise your blood pressure:
Kerr County judge Rob Kelly told reporters: “We didn’t know this flood was coming. Rest assured, no one knew this kind of flood was coming. We have floods all the time… when it rains, we get water. We had no reason to believe that this was going to be anything like what’s happened here. None whatsoever.” Kelly also said he did not know what kind of warning, if any, the leaders at Camp Mystic would have received ahead of the flash floods.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which houses the NWS, is among the agencies that have experienced mass layoffs under the Trump Administration, with firings of probationary employees starting just weeks after Trump returned to the White House.
In May, the former directors of the NWS published an open letter to “the American people,” warning that Trump’s cuts leave “the nation’s official weather forecasting entity at a significant deficit—down more than 10% of its staffing—just as we head into the busiest time for severe storm predictions like tornadoes and hurricanes.”
“No one saw this coming…”
The authors of the letter highlighted their fears, saying: “Our worst nightmare is that weather forecast offices will be so understaffed that there will be needless loss of life. We know that’s a nightmare shared by those on the forecasting front lines—and by the people who depend on their efforts.”
Behind a paywall, but the headline speaks volumes:
Get used to it. This story will play out repeatedly in different venues. And it will be shrugged off by the administration with a plea to pray harder.
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Oh, I have no sympathy for the Kerr County County Judge, and his statements, nor do I have sympathy for stupid DOGE cuts; I’m just more interested in how lives could have been saved and I’m not sure that focusing on truly incompetent politicians will prevent this tragedy in the future. Sadly, I’m not sure we can prevent it in the future, even with more competent leadership.
You can’t prevent every accident, every death. But things a competent government can do is:
- Build communication systems to ensure that emergency warnings are disseminated to people and places who need to know;
- Be aware that (presumably licensed) camps are in flash flood planes;
- Ensure such licensing includes the ability to receive warnings;
- Ensure such licensing requires evacuation plans and training;
- Send a fucking trooper to see if the kids are still there when the flood is coming.
But all of that is irrelevant if weather forecasting is now just an academic pursuit because the information doesn’t get beyond the walls of the NWS office.
The article says NWS activated the Emergency Alert System at 1:14 a.m., which should have pinged every cellphone in the area. Whether the camp has cell coverage and received the alerts will be part of the investigation.
But another issue that I saw repeatedly on reddit (admittedly anecdotal) is that all the surrounding counties have early warning systems on the river, but Kerr County doesn’t. Mainly because the taxpayers and county didn’t want to pay for one.
It seems like local officials could have ordered an evacuation, but that’s a tough call at 1 or 2 a.m. on July 4. But it boils down to when did the local officials get the warning, and why didn’t they order an evacuation? And also, did the camp get any warnings at all?
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This is exactly the point made by this article:
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Very thorough article
Meanwhile, Trump has issued new tariff letters and the DJIA is down over 500 points.
I hadn’t realized it was at 44,850 before the drop.
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They didn’t allow campers and camp counselors to have cell phones at Camp Mystic. Surely some administrator/s had a phone/s.
All this consternation because the county missed out on a $1 million federal grant, meanwhile the state is supposedly sitting on tens of billions in surplus.
There are lessons to be learned from this, but I won’t hold my breath waiting for those in the best position to effect change to anything about it.
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This is typical of the camps my kids attended and worked. Counselors typically only have access to their phones while on breaks but administrators have their phones at all times.
It was my understanding the counselors always had a phone on them, but kids had no phones.
Thanks. I think that article (and seeking out the actual warning) finally ended my confusion. My previous understanding was that Bandera County got the warning at 1:14 and Kerr was added at 2:14. I see now that Kerr (and the Hunt area) was in the 1:14 warning. I also see that the USGS gauge in Hunt didn’t reach “minor flood stage” until 3:00 am.
IMO, that’s the NWS doing their job properly.
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It’s Texas.
Not much will change going forward, sadly.
Nothing changed after Uvalde, so I’m not holding my breath here, either.
Bad things will happen in life, people will always be in harm’s way, Mother Nature rules the roost ultimately, but effective, solid, good government and the execution of sound policy that positively affects and impacts citizens to promote their well being/ability to live meaningful, safe and fruitful lives is not something the leadership of Texas or our nation cares about or is doing.
The thoughts and prayers are predictable bullshit and empty meaningless nonsense.
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