It’s not a great system but there are certainly some interesting guys here. Neyens and Alvarez could quickly find themselves in the front half of the T100. Or they could flame out, of course, but they at least have serious potential.
Brito has gotten a lot of press since his AFL performance and seems like the next Astros Classic™. Pecko and Mayer aren’t far behind.
Frey hit really well after the draft and seems like he could be a steal. Crafty Astros always finding value from little-known college programs like LSU.
Melton… I don’t know if BA just adores him or if they find the rest of the system that uninspiring.
Re: Melton, I think it’s probably a bit of both? BA has been down on the Astros’ system for awhile (like a lot of folks). I also seem to remember they really liked Melton when he was drafted out of Oregon State. There were a lot of highly regarded/ranked collegiate outfielders that year; he was just the one who fell out of the first round.
Couple of other thoughts (agree with everything you wrote, btw)…
On the pitching side, Ryan Forcucci is really interesting. Had some first round buzz coming out of UCSD but only pitched 25 innings before undergoing TJS just prior to the 2024 draft. Looks like he’ll make his minor league debut this Spring (touch wood). If he’s healthy (again, touch wood), he could move quickly.
On the hitting side, kind of surprised Anthony Huezo isn’t in BA’s Top 10. One of the three high schoolers the Astros selected in the 2023 draft (Astros signed him to a fairly large overslot deal in the 12th Round), he put up some really good numbers at Fayetteville last year and BA seemed especially high on him. Really interested to see if he can repeat that success and how aggresive the Astros will be with him if he does.
I also thought I’d see Sullivan on the list. As for Cole, if he no longer qualified for the list, the same would likely have applied to Melton and Matthews based on the time they spent in the majors. There’s a chat with the writer this afternoon and I’m sure Cole will be question one.
Not sure if there’s a more frustrating prospect in the Astros’ system than Ullola. Just about everything I’ve read says his fastball and slider are MLB ready but his control is terrible. Wondering if he gets moved to the bullpen and is the next Bryan Abreu?
Meant to post this a few days ago. MLB asked its best writers to name a potential break out prospect for their respective teams. McTaggert went with Ryan Forcucci:
“Forcucci was getting first-round buzz at UC San Diego before Tommy John surgery derailed his junior season. Still, the Astros pounced in the third round of the 2024 Draft and are eagerly awaiting his pro debut. The 6-foot-3 righty has two main weapons that generate plenty of whiffs in a fastball that benefits from a low release height and excellent carry and a tight, mid-80s slider. It will be key to see how his stuff returns as he builds back up and if he can develop his changeup or curve into a strong third pitch.”
BA has a new post today ranking their top prospects at every position. It’s good context for seeing how the Astros’ guys compare across the league. The rankings run 10 deep at C, 1B, 2B, and 3B; 25 deep at SS; 15 deep at CF & corner OF; 40 deep for RHP; and 20 deep for LHP.
Brice Matthews was the only Astros prospect to rank on any of those lists, coming in at #8 for 2B.
Recently traded prospects Jacob Melton (#12 among CF) and Anderson Brito (#29 among RHP) were also ranked.
Some twitter twit should research the list of highest performing rookies, by WAR, over the last 10 years that were not previously in any Too 100 lists, totaled up by team. I bet the Astros would be on top.
Team totals could be skewed there by non-competitive teams giving playing time to mediocre prospects, accumulating WAR across positions but not from anybody actually good. Highest-performing individual non-t100 players would be very interesting though. But a lot more of our homegrown guys made t100s than I remembered: Peña, Diaz, Smith, Brown, Matthews, and Dezenzo all made one. The only homegrown guys who (a) never made one and (b) cleared 1.0 WAR this season were Framber, Meyers, and Abreu. Those guys debuted in 2019, 2019, and 2021. The recent history on rabbits-out-of-hats is not nearly as good.
I’m not sure someone even with extremely deep knowledge of the Astros system could point to an obvious Astros snub on BA’s list. Neyens could be a real blue-chipper a year from now, depending on whether he has anything resembling a hit tool. If Frey can keep up those contact numbers and play a decent OF, he’s a t100 guy. Kevin Alvarez just needs to keep it up stateside to make his way onto the list. If Ryan Forcucci comes back strong after TJ, he’s another clear candidate.
But every team has guys like this. There are hundreds of them across the minors. I have little doubt that of the eventual best 100 major leaguers who are currently in the minors, one or more will come from the Astros system. The same is true for every other team’s system. For the Astros, it’s just a lot harder to point to who it’ll be.
I think it is accurate that the Astros don’t have any top 100 prospects now.
Those media generated lists prioritize high draft slot and big international bonus money.
Thats not all, but guys who weren’t given a million+ $$ upfront need to outperform and pass those guys to get on the list.
My opinion is that the Astros have several guys who should be 101-150 and have a chance to be there this time next year. They also have 2 of the top 28 picks in the upcoming draft.
Xavier Neyens, Walker Janek, Brice Matthews (if he doesn’t graduate), Ethan Frey, Ryan Forcucci, Kevin Alvarez, Joseph Sullivan, Bryce Mayer, Miguel Ullola, and Ethan Pecko are all guys I could see getting some top 100 considerstion for the 2027 preseason lists.
They had a few DSL hitters who had very encouraging seasons too, but I have seen that before and want to see the performance continue Stateside before I get too optimistic.
Apparently the Astros are also very high on undrafted free agent Lucas Spence who they feel could be very highly regarded this time next year.
Astros farm system was ranked 28th by Keith Law. I am not a huge fan of Law’s rankings, or rankings in general - they are all guessing but I thought his assessment of the system and they change in direction in last year’s draft may show a change in philosophy now that Brown is the GM.
ESPN had the Astros as the 29th ranked system. Not worth the link because they don’t give an assessment of the system just which prospects the guy likes.
“The Astros do have prospects, but they don’t have a lot of ceiling at all, tending towards players with more floor and predictability. Their first-round pick last year, high school infielder Xavier Neyens, was a shift in the opposite direction, and it’s exactly what they needed. He could easily be their No. 1 prospect in a year if he shows he can hit Low-A pitching. Otherwise it’s a lot of back-end starters or relievers, second-division regulars and the occasional ‘if he gets healthy, he’s good’ prospect.”