2026 MLB Draft

TalkZone
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12 days out from day one of the draft. Baseball America posted another mock draft this morning. Here are their notes on the Astros at 17 & 28:

17. Astros — Justin Lebron, SS, Alabama

Lebron remains a polarizing player who’s hard to pin down thanks to loud tools but rocky performance. If he does get to this range, I think Houston would be one of the teams interested in swinging big on his upside. Lebron has real landing spots inside the top 10 picks, and it seems like basically every team from 5-10 is really considering him.

On the other hand, other sources think he could slide into the 20s. Still, I feel better about his odds to come off the board in the teens today than I did a few weeks ago. There’s a strong chance Bo Lowrance goes in between the Astros’ first two picks, so if they like him (and they might), I wonder if they just take him here if their top target doesn’t make it to them.

28. Astros — Zion Rose, OF, Louisville

Rose could go higher than this, both because of the college hitting momentum I’ve mentioned and because he has both contact skills and loud physical tools. Many of the other college hitters in front of him are lefthanded hitters, which could be a deciding factor on the margins. I’ve heard Rose linked to the Astros, and he would fit on talent at either of their first two picks, in my opinion.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2026-mlb-mock-draft-5-0-updated-first-round-picks-after-the-college-world-series-draft-combine/

Lowrance sounds interesting. 6’5" 200lb lefty hitting high school 3B, a little old for his year (will be almost 19 on draft day), sounds a lot like Xavier Neyens, right? Except Lowrance’s strength is bat-to-ball, and to tap into his power he’ll need to work on getting the ball in the air and to the pull side more often. Those two guys in the system together would be a fun contrast.

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MLB had another mock draft a few days ago, this time with Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo “ping ponging” back on forth on picks:

17. Astros: Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida (No. 14)
Mayo: "We’ve mostly been hearing hitters for the Astros, but so many of the college hitters that they have been interested in are now off the board.

“I think they’re going to go Liam Peterson, who pure-stuff-wise belongs higher than this, but performance-and-command-wise, this is about where you start hearing his name more.”

I would be very happy if the Astros draft Peterson. He would immediately be the top pitching prospect in the organization and should move quickly.

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I wonder why they went with Peterson to the Astros with Flukey still on the board. Obviously I know less about all this than they do, but Flukey is pretty consistently ranked (closely) ahead of Peterson, including by MLB. I don’t know the players well enough to know what about each one would appeal to the Astros.

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Only thought I had was perhaps signing Peterson for a (slightly) lower amount than Flukey and applying that savings to overslot pick later in the draft. There’s very little separating the two from what I’ve read and I’d be super happy if the Astros select either of them.

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MLB with another mock draft yesterday:

17 - Liam Peterson (RHP, Florida)
28 - Daniel Jackson (C, Georgia)

I’d be very happy if these are Houston’s selections in the first round. They’re two of the top 30 prospects in the draft who also address some very serious organizational needs.

Interestingly, just like the previous MLB mock, Cameron Flukey is a better pitcher and still available in this scenario, but Peterson is also one of the top three college arms in this year’s draft. It’s the type of arm the Astros don’t have in their system right now and if the college bats they’re interested in aren’t available, I think it makes all the sense in the world for the Astros to select him or Flukey if they’re still on the board.

We’ve already covered Jackson. He’s one of the best hitters in this year’s class (albeit mediocre defensively). I doubt he stays behind the plate in pro ball. But he’s athletic enough to play 1B or LF and should move through the system quickly.

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Boy, if we’re drafting first-rounders that we hope might work out at 1B, they’d better hit like Barry Bonds.

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Well, Bonds’ nephew Peyton is a draft eligible OF from Rutgers.

Also, the Astros have no 1B prospects in the minors who profile as anything other than AAAA players let alone someone capable of hitting like Peyton’s uncle.

Jackson looks like he could be a damn good hitter, though.

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I understand, but it’s not like 1B isn’t a position you can’t fill from outside your org if that’s the last missing piece. Whatever. I just hope we get some guys that make it to Houston in 3 years or so. Looking at the past drafts and seeing guys who are helping other clubs is irritating.

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The state of the Astros and their minor league system drive me to drink.

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Speaking of bat-only types, I wonder where Caden Ferraro (Tech) will get picked. Baseball America ranked him #169 but says he’s been moving up boards after the Combine.

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Keith Law came out with his third mock draft today:

17 - Daniel Jackson (C, Georgia)
28 - Cole Carlon (LHP, tempe normal)

Jackson keeps being linked to the Astros in these mocks, so I think there’s some merit to the idea they’re interested in him.

Carlon is considered the best college LHP in the draft and has been getting a fair bit of helium lately. FB regularly hits upper 90’s while his slider may be his best pitch. Much as it would pain me on a personal level to have have someone from tempe normal in the Astros system, he makes a lot of sense here (if he’s still on the board) and would be the top pitching prospect in the system.

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Each year there are names that jump out due to wildly different placement in pre-draft rankings, often depending on whether the rankings are based on industry consensus vs. individual draft models. One guy some model-type analysts have a lot higher than consensus is Martin Shelar, a righty-hitting high school outfielder from Georgia committed to Mississippi State. He’s got huge bat speed, quick hands, and evidently showed well at the Combine. He’ll be almost 19 on draft day and doesn’t sound like a CF long-term, so draft models must REALLY like the bat to have him ranked so highly. Baseball America has him at #122, Baseball Prospectus has him at #18.

Seems like the kind of guy who could go as high as the late first round on a haircut, if he’s not set on school.

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I also listened to a bit of the Future Projection podcast Baseball America put out today. Regarding Lebron, they noted that it’s hard to tell which teams are actually in on him. Earlier in the draft cycle he was seen as a top 5-10 pick, and given his poor performance, a bunch of teams with a chance to draft him now are scrambling to do their diligence on him. With all that attention from teams picking around 11-25, there’s just no way of knowing who actually likes him best.

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Quick correction to the draft order from the initial post in this thread, where I seem to have missed a couple of other teams’ forfeited picks. Here are the right numbers for where the Astros pick:

Round Overall Notes
1 17
PPI 28 For Hunter Brown’s top-3 Cy Young finish
2 57
3 93
4 121
Comp 133 For Framber Valdez signing with Detroit
5 153
6 182
7 211
8 241
9 271
10 301
11 331
12 361
13 391
14 421
15 451
16 481
17 511
18 541
19 571
20 601
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It’s Draft Eve, and the prognosticators are starting to post their final mocks. What I’ve seen so far:

The Athletic:

17 - Ace Reese, 3B (Mississippi State)
Reese is similar to Brice Matthews, an advanced bat, good data, questionable defense and position. I think the Astros are a floor for Justin Lebron, too.

28 - Daniel Jackson, C (Georgia)
I may be the skeptic on Jackson’s pro upside but all accounts are he’s going somewhere in the first round.

ESPN:

17 - Daniel Jackson, C (Georgia)
This is probably the first real landing spot for Jackson, and he’s most likely to go somewhere in the 20s, but probably won’t make it to the Astros’ next pick at 28. It sounds as though the Astros want a position player here, and Jackson offers more defensive value than Bo Lowrance and Ace Reese, along with more raw power than Zion Rose and AJ Gracia.

28 - Bo Lowrance, 3B (Christ Church Episcopal HS, SC)
Lowrance likely finds a landing spot somewhere from 25 to 40, with many scouts seeing above-average hit and power tools from a pretty left-handed swing, but his position on the field is unclear. The Astros are linked to Blair and Radel here, and this is probably the floor for Jackson.

57 - Carson Tinney, C (Texas)

Ben Blair (Liberty) & Jack Radel (Notre Dame) are both RHP who rate as late first/early second round talents and probably won’t make it to the Astros’ pick at 57.

Baseball America:

17 - Justin Lebron SS (Alabama)
The latest I’ve heard on Astros has been college hitting, so names like Lebron, Sawyer Strosnider, Zion Rose, Logan Hughes and Daniel Jackson could all make a lot of sense. Lebron has been mentioned here frequently and at this stage someone’s got to think hard about passing up on his upside.

Other Names We’re Hearing: Sawyer Strosnider, Mason Edwards, Logan Hughes, Sawyer Strosnider, Daniel Jackson, Justin Lebron

Dart Throw Names For Later Picks: Jack Beck, Matthew Kelley, Luke Williams

28 - Logan Hughes, OF (Texas Tech)
Hughes has an impressive combination of contact ability and power that seems to be helping him surge up boards as we get closer to draft day. He could fit all over the second half of the first round, though Houston is the team I’ve heard connected to him most.

BA also notes that Trevor Condon’s “most obvious landing spots” are Houston at 17 and Cincinnati at 18, but had him taken earlier than either pick in this mock.

The “dart throw” guys:

  • Jack Beck: big Tennessee HS SS (likely 3B long-term), R/R, power bat, Georgia Southern commit, BA rank #316
  • Matthew Kelley: speedy Nevada HS SS/RHP, R/R, big arm, TAMU commit, BA rank #485
  • Luke Williams: Pennsylvania HS SS, R/R, great bat speed, very toolsy, Vanderbilt commit, BA Rank #99
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56

Just looking at that Framber pick makes me mad all over that they miscalculated Correa’s money to get under the tax

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It’s like those guys crashing the Mars probe because they mixed up imperial and metric measurements…

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What? I don’t think I’ve ever heard this story. Or I forgot it.

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There was never much reporting on it, but the Astros exceeded the luxury tax threshold last year by a hair (relatively speaking), which effectively can only happen through incompetence. The way they approached the whole season made it clear that Crane wanted to stay under the cap. And the draft penalties don’t get worse with each extra dollar, so either you stay under the cap and avoid the penalties, or you blow the cap by a much bigger margin and add enough talent to make a real difference in your postseason chances. AGM Andrew Ball got fired after the season, and it stands to reason that the payroll calculation was the primary cause. This theory was later confirmed, as far as it goes, by Idstrosfan’s insider friend from another forum.

The result is that the Astros didn’t re-set their taxpayer status in '25 (just one year under the cap wipes the slate clean), and their comp pick for Framber got dropped by 2 rounds, with a hit to their bonus pool of about half a million bucks.

It’s the kind of mistake a professional baseball organization should never, ever make. It’s also the kind of mistake that I frankly don’t believe can happen as a result of one person’s failure. You have to have an unacceptable lack of controls—or just a general lack of organizational competence—for it to happen.

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I seriously doubt the AGM was the only one crunching the numbers, but was at the top of that food chain. Brown wouldn’t be coming in to double check his math.

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