With the college season underway we might as well get the thread started. The 2026 draft will take place July 11-12. The Astros will have a much larger pool than last year after finishing lower in the standings than usual and acquiring some extra picks instead of sacrificing them. All QO free agents have now signed, so I think the order is more or less final, with the Astros picking at:
Round
Overall
Notes
1
17
PPI
28
For Hunter Brown’s top-3 Cy Young finish
2
57
3
93
4
121
Comp
134
For Framber Valdez signing with Detroit
5
155
6
182
7
212
8
242
9
272
10
302
11
332
12
362
13
392
14
422
15
452
16
482
17
512
18
542
19
572
20
602
I’m not exactly sure, but I think the comp pick for Framber would have been #75 if the Astros had stayed under the luxury tax in 2025. I’ll update this with their bonus pool number if and when I find it, probably somewhere around $13M. Last year’s pool was just over $7M. Suffice it to say they’ll have more flexibility to buy their favorite players down to their picks this year.
From the few games I’ve seen of Texas, would expect Carson Tinney to move up that list. Don’t have an idea of his defensive ability as a catcher, but he’s a tough out, with power.
Chris Rembert # 28 on the list suffered an ankle injury on opening weekend - it is an “interior ankle sprain” but he will miss extended time. It was an ugly looking injury/slide
I think he was talking about the system. He was saying they had good young outfielders, and that that was the strength of the system, and they would be looking for good young infielders moving forward. I feel like he was implying through the draft, etc. Of course I could be way off base, but that was my take.
Interesting look inside the latest trends in the draft. In short:
Tools tools tools. Everybody’s after physical upside now, performance be damned. Under-tooled college performers who’d normally have gone in the supplemental through third round are facing tough times.
Teams shifting toward underperforming college pitchers in the middle rounds. Non-elite high school pitchers more likely to make it to campus.
Scouting/analytics/player development departments all coordinating more than before on drafting.
Read that article yesterday. Super fascinating. The second point about college pitchers is especially relevant for the Astros.
And the emphasis on tooled up players above all else makes so much more sense considering the apparently growing influence of folks from the player development side now being in the room and advocating for drafting specific guys.
30 days out, I am definitely less locked in on the draft than in years past. Part of that is that the guys I used to follow for the really interesting info (the guys with game & showcase data who built their own draft models) have been hired up by MLB orgs. Oh well.
Still way too far out to get real connections for the Astros at 17 or 28. The closest is from ESPN’s mock from a couple weeks ago:
I don’t think those names necessarily reflect a preference on the Astros’ part; there are just a lot of athletic college hitters with hit tool questions available around their picks.
Keith Law’s second mock draft (yesterday in the Athletic) also had the Astros selecting Lebron at #17. He had them taking Taylor Rabe (RHP - Ole Miss) at #28. The latter is interesting and I wouldn’t hate it. Polished college pitcher who should move quickly and profiles as MOR. The former would be terrible. Lebron is athletic as hell but can’t quality pitching (struggled all year in the SEC). It feels like Brice Matthews 2.0 with weaker exit velocities. Someone I really like is Tyler Bell (SS - Kentucky), whom I’m sure won’t be there when the Astros make their first pick because he’s got a hell of a lot helium right now. He was top 60 recruit out of HS and played most of this year with a bum shoulder. More hit over power, but is good enough defensively to stay at SS in pro ball (and with some projectible power when the shoulder fully heals).
This is Dana Brown, though. His drafts have been pretty underwhelming and I fully expect him to make some questionable selections early.
Slightly different note, I’ve followed the buildup to the draft pretty closely. Overall, it’s a fairly deep class and the recent consenus is that it’s shaping up to be one of the best of the last few years. HS pitching is especially loaded, although that’s a demographic I hope the Astros stay away from.
There’s a lot of college power arms, however, whom I really like as well as a few toolsy up the middle high school bats. Hopefully, the Astros will grab at least a few of them.
ETA - if you’re looking for a good way to waste your boss’s money, Over Slot Baseball will let you put together your own ten round mock draft. It’s addictive…
One thing setting Lebron apart from Matthews & Neyens is that, IIRC, those guys didn’t have bad problems chasing outside the zone as amateurs. Lebron’s problems are both in-zone and out. Of course, he may have such upside that they pop him anyway if he’s there at 17.
UDFA bonuses limited to $10,000 (vs. $125k currently)
Total draft spending capped at $200M (vs. $401M in 2025)
All draft picks tradeable (with limited restrictions)
International draft following similar structure, but players eligible at 18
There are dozens of reasons this would be bad for the game, but thankfully, this is all subject to negotiation in the CBA and isn’t anything the commissioner can implement unilaterally.
