And the Phillies are going with speedy high school OF Dante Nori at 27. Might get a bit of a discount there. His average ranking from the boards I’ve compiled is ~58.
Astros will be up with basically everyone they’ve been tied to still available.
How are you getting all the picks ahead like you are?!? Pretty cool.
I’m watching on Hudson’s TV.
(jk I’m listening to a twitter stream with a couple of guys with sources. I’m not sure how to link to it directly but the host is @WillSugeStats. Another good account to check for early news is @JoeDoyleMiLB.)
3 Likes
AND THE PICK IS…
WALKER JANEK, CATCHER, SAM HOUSTON STATE
Consensus absolutely had him as good value at this pick. Average ranking on public boards was 24, well-liked for his defense and his skills at the plate.
The Athletic:
Janek has emerged as the top catcher in the class, which may be damning with faint praise but also reflects the fact that he’s mashed and has shown he can stick behind the plate. He jumped to a .364/.476/.709 line this year for the Bearkats, finishing just a thousandth of a point off the Conference USA lead in slugging behind a senior who played for New Mexico State (altitude 3900 feet).
It’s a simple gap-to-gap approach with pull power and some ability to go the other way for contact, along with a two-strike approach that sees him focus on putting the ball in play. He has the hands and the arm strength to catch, close to average right now with the chance to be a 55 defender all around with some coaching help, offering the upside of a 20-homer bat at a position where offense is scarce.
Baseball Prospectus:
Fresh off his Buster Posey award-winning campaign, Janek moved up a tier by flashing more playable power in his junior season. He represents the most well-rounded catcher archetype in this draft class. Originally a glove-over-hit catcher projection, Janek has always displayed solid bat-to-ball skills, and after a strong Cape Cod league performance he continued his excellent bat control at Sam Houston. Janek made contact in the strike zone 88% of the time, and routinely stung his batted balls close to his peak power output. The Bearkat backstop possesses merely average raw power at best, but extends through the ball extremely well and gets to all of it in-game by launching towards the left-center power alley. With lots of 5s in his profile, Janek’s lone plus tool is his arm behind the plate. He consistently fired frozen ropes down to second base, and cut down would-be base stealers 51% of the time. Janek has now destroyed left handed pitching across a large sample, representing a high-floored, platoon-leverageable big league catcher down the line, even without a true carrying tool.
Future Stars Series:
After being scouted hard by about a third of the league as a prepster, Janek really burst onto the scene in 2023 for Sam Houston playing a couple different roles defensively. He’s a strong defensive catcher and a capable third baseman, though scouts are split on where his future home will be at the next level. Most seem to lean behind the plate where he provides plus value both in holding the run game and in framing. It’s a good blend of pure hit-ability, raw power and glove work that should keep his floor quite high. He’s a good athlete with a leaner frame and certainly wears the catchers gear well. Janek is quick out of the crouch and flashes plus arm strength with pop times that consistently rank above his peers. His throws to second base come out of a lower slot and tend to tail into the runner’s lane, though he’s shown feel for putting the ball on the mark and has thrown out an inordinate amount of runners in 2024 because of it. He looks the part back there. The bat features a short, compact stroke with power and bat-to-ball skills. He projects an average hitter with impact bat speed. Notably, Janek’s metrics against more premium pitching/stuff+ stand out, helping to diminish concerns of his lack of exposure to more advanced stuff at Sam Houston. If Janek can develop some polish in his pitch selection and pure hit tool he could project to a William Contreras type of profile. Scouts are familiar and comfortable with the player and Janek’s character. He gets very high marks from area scouts on his prowess and feel for the game.
MLB
After drawing little interest from pro teams or major college programs as a Texas high schooler, Janek has developed into arguably the 2024 Draft’s best catching prospect after three years at Sam Houston. His stock surged at the 2023 Karbach Classic, where he went 5-for-13 with a pair of doubles, squared up a 97-mph fastball from Louisiana State’s Chase Shores and backpicked a runner. He continued to impress in the Cape Cod League last summer and played his way into first-round consideration this spring while winning the Buster Posey Award as college baseball’s top catcher.
With impressive bat speed and good strength, Janek creates plus raw power that translates into average game pop with most of his home runs driven to his pull side. While he’s an aggressive right-handed hitter who looks to launch balls and frequently chases pitches out of the strike zone, he’s showing more patience and doing a better job of using the entire field in 2024. Though he has below-average speed, he runs better than most catchers and will steal bases if opponents don’t keep him honest.
Conference USA’s 2024 Defensive Player of the Year, Janek is agile behind the plate and does a nice job framing pitches. He can get lackadaisical with his receiving, which grades as merely average until he cleans it up. He controls the running game with his plus arm strength and quick release.
3 Likes
A little game video and an interview with Janek:
Thanks moriarty!!
7 Likes
I’m out for the night, but the picks will continue. After Janek, the Astros’ next pick will come tomorrow in the third round, 101st overall.
That’s 72 picks in between the Astros’ first two selections, which as I said on twitter earlier will probably feel like 72 punches in the dick as good players go to other organizations. But that’s how it goes.
See y’all tomorrow.
“…he wears the catcher’s gear well” is something I’m not sure I’ve ever heard before
I know we’re not selling jeans
1 Like
Day two starts in a little over an hour. A lot of great talent got picked in the compensation and second rounds, but Mississippi State OF Dakota Jordan (linked to the Astros as a possible first round pick) is still on the board.
He’s the consensus top guy remaining, but his slide isn’t terribly surprising—he’s an extraordinarily risky pick as a corner outfielder with massive questions about his hit tool. Then again, when he does make contact, it’s the best in the class. Every team can see the talent but it’s hard to take a guy with that kind of bust potential with your first pick. I’d expect him to go off the board before the Astros get a shot at him.
If history is any indication, they’ll pick their favorite college RHP from whoever’s left at 101. Michael Massey, Thatcher Hurd, Connor Foley, Jaxon Jelkin, Aiden Major, LP Langevin, Chase Allsup… someone’s gonna be there. But history isn’t always much of an indication.
1 Like
At 101, Astros take: Ryan Forcucci, RHP, UCSD. Would likely have gone a round (or two) higher if he hadn’t missed time with an injury. Average ranking on public boards post-injury was 90th overall.
Baseball America:
Forcucci pitched as a reliable starter in his first two seasons at UC San Diego in 2022 and 2023, but in 2024 he was a huge up-arrow prospect early in the season thanks to his improved strikeout rates and polish. The 6-foot-3, 205-pound righthander posted a 2.16 ERA in 25 innings and five starts, with a career-best 38.1% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate. He missed the rest of the season with injury, though he was tracking toward a potential first-round selection. When on the mound, Forcucci averaged 93-94 mph with a fastball that touched 97 with above-average riding life from a lower-than-average release height. His heater has been a consistent swing-and-miss pitch for him in college and he also showed the makings of an above-average mid-80s slider with tight two-plane break when he lands it to his glove side. Forcucci also mixed in a slower curveball in the upper 70s and threw an occasional firm, upper-80s changeup that has solid diving action. In addition to a solid four-pitch mix, Forcucci has always been a steady strike-thrower and owns a career 7.6% walk rate. He has a starter package with a loud two-pitch mix fronting his arsenal, though his health status and lack of innings this spring will complicate his stock.
Dana Brown took a fair number of injured pitchers back in his Atlanta days. Upside is upside.
Pre-injury, this was Baseball Prospectus’ report on him:
UCSD’s ace is a VAA monster, with a progressively shaped fastball in the mid-90s topping 20 inches of IVB from a low release, supplemented by a sharp mid-80s two-plane slider and a changeup with exceptional fade. Forcucci has below-average command at present but some ingredients for improvement. He operates a lower three- quarters arm slot, with occasional trunk falloff as his mechanics get squirrely pitch-to-pitch. Otherwise, Forcucci’s long arm stroke with minimal violence on release and small head whack is generally controlled and repeatable. Forcucci’s profile is carried by fastball specs that can aggressively get pushed to a plus-plus pitch in the Joe Ryan/Cristian Javier/Bryan Woo era of top-of-zone flat-VAA fastballs, where Forcucci should excel if he can continue to sit 94 mph or better.
The third round, as you might expect, has been all over the place vs. public rankings. The deeper you go into the draft, the less consensus there is. Plus now you might be seeing some under-slot guys to make sure teams can afford their pricey early picks.
Fourth round, a local guy: Parker Smith, RHP, Rice University
BA had him ranked 149 in the class. Their report:
Smith is a 6-foot-4, 230-pound righthander who has anchored Rice’s rotation for multiple years and been a strong strike-thrower for three seasons. He owns a career 3.96 ERA over 220.1 innings and 40 starts with just an 18.9% strikeout rate but an impressive 6.8% walk rate. Smith works from an up-tempo delivery and throws with a loose and whippy arm action and low three-quarters slot. He sits in the 90-94 mph range with his fastball and will top out at 96 with sink and running life that makes the pitch more of a groundball-inducing pitch than a real bat-misser. As expected from his walk rate, he does a nice job establishing the fastball in the zone to set up a solid duo of secondaries, which includes a solid 80-85 mph slider that he lands to his glove side and a firm, upper-80s changeup that he locates down and to the arm side. The slider was his best swing-and-miss pitch this spring, though his changeup’s tumble and fading life could make it his best secondary in the long run. Smith uses the slider more against righties and the changeup more against lefties but has impressive feel for both. Smith’s lack of strikeouts and power caps his ceiling a bit, but he has a solid back-of-the-rotation starter profile.
Is there mention anywhere of what his injury was?
Looks like he had TJS. https://www.prepbaseballreport.com/news/PBR/2024-mlb-draft--day-one-takeaways
Thanks, I couldn’t find a link that elaborated on “junior season cut short due to injury.”
Fifth round: Cole Hertzler, RHP, Liberty University
Average rank 317, but again, we’re reaching the point of the draft where a hundred points of difference in public rankings doesn’t mean anything.
Baseball America:
Hertzler is a large and physical righthhander with a 6-foot-4, 235-pound frame. He spent parts of his first two seasons with Liberty as a first baseman and hitter, but exclusively pitched in a starting role in 2024 when he posted a 4.46 ERA over 13 starts and 76.2 innings with a 26.6% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate. Hertzler sits 92-93 mph with his fastball and has touched 97 and goes to a low-80s changeup with heavy arm-side fade as his primary off-speed offering. He’ll also mix in a mid-80s slider and 12-to-6 curveball around 80. Hertzler has great feel for his changeup and improved his overall control year-over-year but is still refining his breaking stuff and has a delivery that might fit better as a reliever in pro ball.
Sixth round: Caden Powell, SS, Seminole State (JC)
Not on any boards I found, but he was the NJCAA D1 Player of the Year after hitting .502 (!!) on the season.
Update: from the invaluable @midzee4 on twitter (Baseball Prospectus prospect writer and data-savvy Astros fan extraordinaire):
We’ve reached the stage of the draft where I cannot possibly keep up with an actual scouting department, but Caden Powell is probably the only JUCO name I got eyes on this year. Plus power readouts with wood geared for dead center, plus bat speed, likely plays up at third base.
And from the equally invaluable @EephusTosser:
Two-sport (basketball) star in high school, and a top prospect as a senior. Big, athletic guy who won NJCAA player of the year honors after leading D1 in home runs, SLG, and RBI.
Committed to Oklahoma State but unlikely to make it to campus.
JuCo guys are always a little tough to scout for a few different reasons, but there are some keys to Powell:
- The power does not come at the cost of contact.
- I don’t think he’ll stick at shortstop. I’d guess COF as a pro.
- Should adjust fine to wood bats. Plus bat speed, reads break.
- Might immediately usurp Jeron Williams as my favorite guy in the system.
2 Likes
Seventh round: Joseph Sullivan, OF, University of South Alabama
Lefty hitter with an average board rank of 255, but was up as high as 120 on the FSS board. BA had him 277th. Their writeup:
Sullivan is a filled out and muscular 5-foot-11, 198-pound outfielder and lefthanded hitter with solid zone skills and speed. A three-year starter for South Alabama, Sullivan had a career-year in 2023 when he hit .304/.485/.591 with 13 home runs, but injuries cut into his playing time in 2024. Sullivan flashes some pull-side power at times, but he mostly stands out for his swing decisions at the plate and willingness to take a walk. He’s a plus runner who can get down the line quickly when he needs to, and he’s been a consistent stolen-base threat with an 85% success rate in his college career. Playing center field could be key for his profile, so a team highest on him might believe he can play there in pro ball, despite most of his playing time coming in left field—in deference to fellow 2024 prospect Will Turner—at South Alabama.
FSS’s writeup:
A primary left fielder, Sullivan employs a wide base at the plate with a sturdy, open base. He’s aims to get out in front and do damage to the pull-side with many of his outs being scalded ground balls into the right side. That said, Sullivan performs and has shown the ability to cover most quadrants in the zone, especially pitches middle-in and low-and-away. He’s got reasonably elite chase rates, though Sullivan is yet to see truly top-shelf pitching at this stage in his career. His above average raw power has been well-documented by scouts, though getting to it consistently in games will be a big part in his future development. Sullivan got plenty of run in the MLB Draft League in 2023 where he shown much of the same approach and impact offensively. Ultimately, this looks something akin to Kole Calhoun and could be a sneaky early day two name in 2024. Sullivan is an average glove in left field with a fringy arm, and his average speed can play a bit on the base paths given the right opportunity.
Note on Sullivan: he was working through a hamate injury this season, notoriously something that saps hitters’ power.
My favorite pick so far. Hope he doesn’t decide to go to Okie State.
1 Like
Given how the bonus pool system works, teams almost always nail down signability and have an agreement in place before they make the pick. Fingers crossed. Chandler Rome did speculate that it’d take a bit over slot to sign Powell.
A couple random notes:
-
The Yankees took major-program college RHP with their first seven picks, before finally breaking in the 8th round and taking a college 1B.
-
The Phillies are having the opposite draft, and haven’t taken a pitcher through seven rounds. (Update: they broke in the eighth round too, finally popped an arm)
-
It’s looking like a lot of top high schoolers will make it to campus, and also a few more solid college bats might be returning as well. I don’t know if it’s that many more than usual, but it’s a trend that’s jumped out at me so far.
1 Like