2024 MLB Draft

There are only two months or so until the 2024 MLB draft. The Astros will have pick #28. The consensus appears to be that the top tier of draftees (top 10 or so) is decent, but after that, it’s a below-average class. So what does mock draft season have for us this year?

  • K. Law at The Athletic picked Malcolm Moore to the Astros, a catcher from Stanford. He also indicated that Dana Brown has tried to get his own eyes on HS players Caleb Bonemer (SS/3B) and Dante Nori (CF).

  • Perfect Game’s April 11 Mock has the Astros taking Billy Ameck, 3B, Tennessee. Notes that the Astros haven’t taken a high schooler with their first pick since 2016.

  • It’s not a mock, but the #28 player on MLB Pipeline’s list is Iowa RHP Brody Brecht. Law has him off the board at #14. He apparently has a great fastball from a velo perspective, but has trouble with location.

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It’s not a very loaded class this year, especially when compared to 2023. There are ten or so guys at the top and after that it’s pretty muddled.

Moore is interesting. Draft eligible sophomore who’s a bat first catcher. Has a strong arm, though.

Brecht is a massive pitcher but also very raw. Only gave up football this year to focus full time on baseball. I’d be surprised if he’s still on the board when the Astros pick.

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ESPN posted another mock today, and it’s got a specific connection for the Astros pick (not just “who we think makes sense at 28”). A few of the key notes:

Despite the speed, he hasn’t played much CF in college. MLB.com says he was a 3-star WR recruit out of HS and was going to remain multi-sport in college, but opted to concentrate on baseball. Not dissimilar to Brice Matthews (last year’s first rounder) as a super-athletic former football star with standout batted ball data.

The twitter stat guys seem to like him, too. Huge exit velocity, apparently the kind of guy who can struggle with contact but makes the absolute most of it when he puts the bat on the ball.

Here’s a video of him taking an outside fastball for a ride past the wall in right center.

And here’s a video of him running out of his shoes.

A few recent mocks to go over:

ESPN (6/19):

  • They’re sticking with Dakota Jordan (profiled above) to the Astros at 28.
  • This time around they also link the Astros to Louisiana SS Kyle Debarge and Virginia SS Griff O’Ferrall. Debarge has apparently been rising up draft boards recently, I don’t know much about him, but he seems like an all-around solid player. O’Ferrall is a defensive standout, grinder type, very high contact rates, probably never going to put up notable power numbers.
  • They also mention two high school RHP the Astros apparently like, William Schmidt and Ryan Sloan. Both seem to be consensus first-round or 1S types.

Baseball America (6/17)

  • They’re sticking with Tennessee 3B Billy Amick here. Again, power bat, strikeout concerns, may have to move across the diamond but has apparently impressed more with the glove than expected this year. They don’t mention any specific intel connecting Amick to the Astros–just a general guess.

Keith Law (6/19)

  • Also apparently guessing rather than going off intel, Law has the Astros taking Iowa RHP Brody Brecht at 28. Lots of stuff, lots of upside, not a lot of polish.

Things are going to be interesting this year without a second-round pick (which they sacrificed in signing Hader). Between the loss of that pick, no other bonus picks, and not picking 'til 28, they’ve got the smallest bonus pool in the draft this year. I don’t think that’ll hamstring them in any particular round, but we shouldn’t expect them to land any over-slot guys later in the draft like they did in 2022 or 2023.

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Latest MLB.com draft dropped yesterday. Looks like it was a combination of Callis, Mayo, et al.

  • Theo Gillen, SS from Austin Weslake and committed to Texas. Larger, athletic frame (6’3") with good instincts who can also hit for power. Some folks think he won’t stick at short due to concerns his arm still hasn’t recovered from shoulder surgery.

FWIW, Callis had a mock back on 6/13:

  • Malcolm Moore, C from Stanford. Draft eligible sophomore who also plays 1B for the Cardinal. Seems to be more bat than defense at this point. Not terrible behind the plate, more average with a fringey arm, and there’s some chatter he’ll move to 1B full time in the pros. He has power from the left side, although he didn’t show it as much his sophomore year.
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