There are only two months or so until the 2024 MLB draft. The Astros will have pick #28. The consensus appears to be that the top tier of draftees (top 10 or so) is decent, but after that, it’s a below-average class. So what does mock draft season have for us this year?
K. Law at The Athletic picked Malcolm Moore to the Astros, a catcher from Stanford. He also indicated that Dana Brown has tried to get his own eyes on HS players Caleb Bonemer (SS/3B) and Dante Nori (CF).
Perfect Game’s April 11 Mock has the Astros taking Billy Ameck, 3B, Tennessee. Notes that the Astros haven’t taken a high schooler with their first pick since 2016.
It’s not a mock, but the #28 player on MLB Pipeline’s list is Iowa RHP Brody Brecht. Law has him off the board at #14. He apparently has a great fastball from a velo perspective, but has trouble with location.
It’s not a very loaded class this year, especially when compared to 2023. There are ten or so guys at the top and after that it’s pretty muddled.
Moore is interesting. Draft eligible sophomore who’s a bat first catcher. Has a strong arm, though.
Brecht is a massive pitcher but also very raw. Only gave up football this year to focus full time on baseball. I’d be surprised if he’s still on the board when the Astros pick.
ESPN posted another mock today, and it’s got a specific connection for the Astros pick (not just “who we think makes sense at 28”). A few of the key notes:
Despite the speed, he hasn’t played much CF in college. MLB.com says he was a 3-star WR recruit out of HS and was going to remain multi-sport in college, but opted to concentrate on baseball. Not dissimilar to Brice Matthews (last year’s first rounder) as a super-athletic former football star with standout batted ball data.
The twitter stat guys seem to like him, too. Huge exit velocity, apparently the kind of guy who can struggle with contact but makes the absolute most of it when he puts the bat on the ball.
They’re sticking with Dakota Jordan (profiled above) to the Astros at 28.
This time around they also link the Astros to Louisiana SS Kyle Debarge and Virginia SS Griff O’Ferrall. Debarge has apparently been rising up draft boards recently, I don’t know much about him, but he seems like an all-around solid player. O’Ferrall is a defensive standout, grinder type, very high contact rates, probably never going to put up notable power numbers.
They also mention two high school RHP the Astros apparently like, William Schmidt and Ryan Sloan. Both seem to be consensus first-round or 1S types.
Baseball America (6/17)
They’re sticking with Tennessee 3B Billy Amick here. Again, power bat, strikeout concerns, may have to move across the diamond but has apparently impressed more with the glove than expected this year. They don’t mention any specific intel connecting Amick to the Astros–just a general guess.
Keith Law (6/19)
Also apparently guessing rather than going off intel, Law has the Astros taking Iowa RHP Brody Brecht at 28. Lots of stuff, lots of upside, not a lot of polish.
Things are going to be interesting this year without a second-round pick (which they sacrificed in signing Hader). Between the loss of that pick, no other bonus picks, and not picking 'til 28, they’ve got the smallest bonus pool in the draft this year. I don’t think that’ll hamstring them in any particular round, but we shouldn’t expect them to land any over-slot guys later in the draft like they did in 2022 or 2023.
Latest MLB.com draft dropped yesterday. Looks like it was a combination of Callis, Mayo, et al.
Theo Gillen, SS from Austin Weslake and committed to Texas. Larger, athletic frame (6’3") with good instincts who can also hit for power. Some folks think he won’t stick at short due to concerns his arm still hasn’t recovered from shoulder surgery.
FWIW, Callis had a mock back on 6/13:
Malcolm Moore, C from Stanford. Draft eligible sophomore who also plays 1B for the Cardinal. Seems to be more bat than defense at this point. Not terrible behind the plate, more average with a fringey arm, and there’s some chatter he’ll move to 1B full time in the pros. He has power from the left side, although he didn’t show it as much his sophomore year.
Callis is sticking with Gillen to the Astros this week. He adds: “The two demographics mentioned most for the Astros are prep shortstops and college catchers.“ I’d assume that means there are particular players in those demos the Astros like, not that the Astros are specifically looking for a player in those demos, because that wouldn’t make much sense. But there are two highly-rated college catchers and a handful of prep shortstops projected to go around where the Astros pick, so it makes sense that they’d be scouting those guys heavily.
Gillen is pretty interesting. I’ve seen him projected to go in the teens or last until the second round. Which actually makes sense as I think about it. The consensus about this draft is that it’s pretty thin. Outside the first 5-10 picks, there’s a lot of variance in the evaluation of prospects and where they’ll be selected.
Also connected to a couple of prep shortstops who I hadn’t seen thrown out before: Tyson Lewis and Carter Johnson
If Law’s picks are representative of how things actually go down, it’s looking like the first round is going to be mostly college bats (17-20 players) and almost no prep pitchers.
Guys like Gillen and Brecht, previously connected to the Astros, appear to have risen up the draft boards out of Houston’s reach.
From reading and listening to those seemingly in-the-know, there’s no telling what the back end of the first round will look like. It’s not a strong crop this year and a substantial number of projected first-rounders have had bad medical reports. Combine those facts and you could see some guys go way higher or lower than their apparent consensus rankings.
Janek is one of those guys everyone seems to like in an otherwise controversial part of the rankings. Catchers have a way of getting popped earlier than projected, but if he’s there at 28, that’d be a really hard pick not to be happy with.
BA posted a 30-team draft preview podcast today. Basically no information on the Astros. A little bit of “college corner bats make sense here” chatter and one connection to high school 1B/OF P.J. Morlando, but nothing other than that.
Baseball America, sorry. I’d normally have linked to the episode, but it was just so uninformative re: the Astros that I didn’t bother. Here’s the link, Astros segment is a little after the 2 hour mark and lasts about two minutes:
The latest smoke is prep SS Tyson Lewis to the Astros in the first round. Would be two years in a row they’ve taken a shortstop from Nebraska with their first pick. There’s no telling what will actually happen when you’re picking 28th, but it sounds like there’s a little more “intel” behind this guess now that we’re just a couple of days away.
Here’s an excerpt from Baseball Prospectus’ writeup on Lewis:
An excellent rotator in the box, Lewis moved his hands from their way-too-far back position into a more traditional vertical angle. His trigger begins with a quick, higher leg kick and he looks to get his arms extended, lacing his best contact over the second baseman’s head. He’s filled out significantly in his draft year, with square shoulders and only a shade of physical projectability remaining. While gaining strength, Lewis maintained his glovework at shortstop and represents an impressive power-speed blend with present physicality.
I’ve been combing draft boards from the various websites and analysts (lots of time on my hands post-hurricane), and I’ve seen Lewis ranked as high as 18th and as low as 52nd in the class, with an average ranking around ~35th. Extremely normal variance in evaluation for a guy expected to go in the mid-late 1st or supplemental round.
I have no idea how Brown will be as a MLB wheeler-dealer-negotiator GM, but I have absolute faith in him as a identifier of amateur talent, his track record in Atlanta was pretty outstanding
Kiley McDaniel at ESPN is also guessing Tyson Lewis in today’s mock draft. I assume that means folks are hearing that Lewis and the Astros have a deal at 28. Of course, that guarantees nothing.
