You don’t sign Christian Walker who turns 34 on March 28 if your goal is to pick in the top half of the draft next season. Nor do you enter a rebuild during Jose Altuve’s age-35 season when he is under contract until age 39. They are retooling because Crane was never going to pay Kyle Tucker anything near what he likely will get as a free agent next offseason, and they had no ready made replacements on the farm.
I see time and again that the hot team wins in the postseason typically, not the best team. Your 2020 Astros are a good example. Just get in and roll the dice.
Never said that was the goal. Just that the Astros are entering some type of a rebuild phase (retool, reset, or whatever you want to call it) and will inevitably pick higher in the draft because of that.
Or maybe I’m wrong and this is the 1990 Texas Longhorns “Shock the Nation Tour” all over again (hopefully, with a far better end result).
The Astros aren’t as good as they ended last season, nor anywhere close to the talent level during their seven-year run of making the American League Championship Series or World Series. Right now, I’d project the Astros to win anywhere between 85 games and the low 90’s. If they can upgrade the outfield and/or pitching staff with Bregman officially gone, that number goes up.
If they have bad injury luck, they could finish under .500.
Puncher’s chance, get in and see what happens, catch lightning in a bottle … all things a fan base tells itself when the team is well below the top tier.
The thing is, there isn’t a dominant team in the AL. Everyone has flaws. NYY doesn’t have any lineup depth, BAL has a weak rotation, BOS a weak bullpen, the ALC teams are always up and down, who knows what TEX or SEA team we get this year. Just one more decent bat via trade and the Astros are probably the most complete team.
If they were in the National League, things would be more difficult, but other than New York, Baltimore and possibly Boston, they are as talented or more talented than every other team in the American League. Also, as Doyce said, all three of those teams have significant flaws, too.