My opinion is that Adames is a step down from Bregman in quality of player.
I realize any stat is flawed and there will always be stats that can be used to debate any point. That said, WAR for position players is probably the bestt, most complete stat to compare players.
Despite playing SS which automatically gives a bonus to SS, Adames has only had 2 seasons of 4+ bWAR (2021 and 2022) and 2 of 4+ fWAR (2022 and 2024).
2021 was the only full season Alex was under 4 bWAR or fWAR.
At least so far in their careers, Alex has been a superior player. And that only considers on field value.
Maybe his age makes up for that. We will see what the market says
Seems to me that Bregman has received a very fair offer from the Astros. If he wants to remain in Houston, he will be here. If not, it will be greed that keeps him from signing. $26MM per year is not the same in California as it is in Texas either.
This is true. But $26 million in TX ain’t $30 million in CA either. The difference isn’t that much. Also, when you get to these huge figures, players have a funny way of looking at that. They’ll actually take less in take-home pay for a higher salary. It’s like when Dallas Keuchel turned down like $18 million for one year because he wanted $20 million. He signed for a half a year for $10 million and was happy because it “represented” a $20 million/year value, even though it was significantly less money in his bank account. Egos, man.
I wouldn’t mind Bregman signing elsewhere at the kind of money the Astros are bidding. I just don’t think he’s a very good investment for the future. Better for 2025, sure, but down the road I wouldn’t want a bunch of payroll tied up in him.
There will always be teams who will offer more money than Houston. That’s just the way it is. Stars like Biggio, Bagwell and Altuve could have made more money elsewhere but chose Houston. Bregman has always said he wants to be an Astro for life. He has his chance right now if he wants it.
For me, the 2 issues, are who replaces him and legacy.
Unlike Cole, Springer, Correa, etc in the past, the farm is not in a position to absorb his loss and the MLB roster is starting from a much weaker point.
There is no doubt in my mind that there are simply no options, internal or external, that don’t hurt the chances of winning in 2025.
And, as I alluded to above, those chances start from a lower point that before.
Furthermore, there are very few, if any options that don’t also hurt 2026. After that, who knows. Matthews appears to be the only internal candidate and he will need all of 2025 and then likely an adjustment year in 2026 at least. And its tough to put all eggs in one basket. As for external candidates? They all look to be short term and lesser players than Alex.
As for the impact of a 7+ year deal? Thats for Brown and Crane to hypothesize, opine, and decide, but higher value early in a deal makes lower value late easier to stomach.
Legacy is on both parties. Ownership needs to make a fair but also comparable and competitive offer and the player needs to believe its important.
Bagwell and Biggio had great intentions but their last couple of years were probably no better than what Bregman might put up in the 5th or 6th year of a new contract.
I have no idea what Bregman will do, but 6 years at $31 million per year, seems like a good offer for the value he brings – both in the dugout and on the field.
Biggio and Bagwell had completely different finishes to their careers.
Biggio played through his age 41 season despite his last season above 115 OPS+ being at age 32 and his last above 105 was at age 35. His last year above 2.5 bWAR was his age 35 season.
Bagwell was quire good, even with the shoulder issue until his final season, when he simply couldn’t play. His OPS+ was 116 and bWAR was 3.7 in his next to last season at age 36.
Alex will be 36 in year 6 of the contract. I would expect him to be somewhere between age 36 Biggio and age 36 Bagwell which is still not a useless player ( though Biggio was much better at ages 35 and 37 than 36)