BA reports he chases a lot and has trouble with breaking stuff. Also just going off inference that if he can run like that and had a better stick, he wouldn’t be going in the 9th round as a college senior. By all means I hope he shoves this post in my face.
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10th round, BYU 3B/1B Austin Deming, 5th year senior who put up some really big numbers at the plate. And day 2 of the 2023 draft is a wrap.
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@moriarty – Thanks for the full commentary. I did not have time to follow it, and really appreciate the way you captured it all in this thread!
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Always happy to ramble on about the draft. Sure beats doing my day job.
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Remind me why the 11th round is when team take shots on HS players?
Late to the party (we had friends over yesterday partly to celebrate a couple’s anniversary and the shenanigans went late into the night and I definitely felt it today while playing catch up at the winery).
Not much to add to @moriarty ’s excellent coverage of yesterday and today. I read somewhere, I think Fangraphs, that a number of teams were hoping Matthews would be available in the second or third rounds. I’ve also seen a few comps to Joe Musgrove for Tredwell.
And I certainly agree that most of today’s picks are about setting up for tomorrow and grabbing some of the highly ranked prospects who are still available. Or maybe Dana Brown just knows a hell of a lot more about baseball and scouting than me. Of both.
Bonus pool $$ is allocated based on your picks in the first 10 rounds. For each pick a team signs in rounds 1-10, the full slot for that pick is added to their pool. But if you take a guy in the top ten rounds and you don’t sign him, you don’t get any money for that pick added to your pool. For picks beginning in round 11, you can sign them for up to $150k without any of that money coming from your pool. And if you don’t sign him, your pool doesn’t take a hit. Only $$ above the $150k counts against your pool.
So you generally have to bank your savings with your picks in rounds 1-10, then you spend it after that. And starting in round 11 you essentially get a free $150k to add to the guy’s bonus. So it behooves a guy like Ryan Clifford to get taken in round 11, since he can get $150k plus every penny the Astros banked by going under-slot in rounds 1-10.
If you have the money to hit a guy’s number before the 11th round, you can pop him earlier of course and make sure nobody else gets him. That’s what the White Sox seem to have done with George Wolkow—they must’ve banked enough by the 7th round to feel confident that they can hit his number, so they took him right then and there.
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moriarty is my hero for his coverage, and I told him so. I do not follow this stuff at all, and his excellent commentary caused me to think I was in the know.
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Thanks!
Day 3 starts at 1 central. The picks are called immediately one after the other, so it’ll go by pretty quick.
After day 2, scouting director Kris Gross told Chandler Rome “We still have to run the numbers, but there’s a chance we have some extra wiggle room. And if so, we’ll see how the board shapes up." I think they ran the numbers down to the penny as they drafted on day 2, and did so with a particular player or players in mind for today.
- For all the talk about under-slot deals yesterday, I think it’s important to say these are all talented players who the scouting department really likes. They’re not just money-savers. I get the sense the Astros genuinely think college seniors are an undervalued draft demographic, especially guys who broke out their senior year who may have been multi-sport athletes in earlier years. I mean, what’s the difference if a guy breaks out at 22 whether it’s in college or in low-A?
- You can probably think of it like their emphasis on “older” pitchers in Latin America. I remember Oz Ocampo or someone else in the front office saying something like “if this guy was pitching at LSU, he’d be a third-round pick and cost almost a million dollars. But because he’s college-aged and pitching in the DR, the industry writes him off and he’ll sign for $10,000.”
- So yes, the savings component is a big deal here. And I don’t think the Astros believe they just landed eight third-round talents yesterday. But “senior sign” probably means something different to the Astros these days than it’s meant historically.
- With respect to speedy 9th rounder Jeron Williams in particular, I’ve seen a lot of positive talk about his bat since his name got called. Maybe he’s the next Zach Dezenzo–who, incidentally, was a college senior with major contact questions but quickly became a top 10 prospect in the system. He actually posted great contact rates as a junior and changed his approach as a senior, leading to more production. So it seems like he’s pretty adaptable at the plate and the Astros will no doubt work with him to figure out the best approach going forward.
- FWIW, Chandler Rome suggested the Astros may need to go over-slot on 5th rounder Chase Jaworsky. That’d surprise me just based on his absence from the BA rankings and apparent anonymity in the industry, but Rome obviously has access to people the rest of us don’t.
On to day 3. Lots of focus on who the “big” name will be. Some names pulled from BA’s best available:
- 37 - Joey Volchko - 6’4" RHP, Stanford commit
- 42 - Roch Cholowsky - toolsy SS, UCLA commit
- 43 - Cam Johnson - 6’5" LHP, LSU commit
- 70 - Grant Gray - CF, UCLA commit for baseball/football (WR)
- 74 - Trent Caraway - bat-first 3B, Oregon State commit
- 92 - Will Gasparino - 6’6" CF with power, UT commit
- 109 - Campbell Smithwick - C with good hit tool, Ole Miss commit
- 116 - Jack Payton - Louisville C, notable because they’ve produced fantastic catchers in Henry Davis and Dalton Rushing lately
- 122 - Tanner Witt - Texas RHP, always been really talented but has been hurt most of his college career, may return to school to improve his stock
- 208 - Zion Rose - athletic C who may move to CF but wants to catch, Louisville commit (see above for significance)
- 343 - Avery Ortiz - young SS with bat speed linked to Astros by BA, Oklahoma State commit
The ones in bold are just the ones I find most interesting. There may not be enough money in the world to pry Johnson away from LSU at this point–I mean, we just saw what they can do for pitchers, and one as talented as Johnson could become a top-5 pick in three years (though maybe Wes Johnson’s departure Georgia is a factor?). Gray, I just think the two-sport aspect is interesting. Gasparino would be thrilling as a big outfield monster but it’d also be fun to see him at UT. Witt is especially intriguing given Brown’s history with injured pitchers. As for Rose, the same data nerd who connected Matthews to the Astros ranked Rose 50th overall in the class, so maybe he’s someone the Astros would like a lot more than BA’s ranking. Also, the Astros didn’t take any catchers day 1 or 2 (I don’t think they intend to put Ryan Johnson behind the plate), so I just wanted to name a few here.
These are just some of the many names out there. No idea if any of them are realistic possibilities.
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I’d be surprised to see someone like Witt, unless it’s some hometown dream scenario. I assume he made it known that he wants to demonstrate his health next year, and climb into a bonus range well above what the Astros could scrounge up.
Gasparino is also allegedly locked into UT…but you never know what $$$ can do.
Given all of his glowing comments about the Astros developmental system, I’d hope the team suggested to Clifford that he get on the phone/text/instatwittokwhatever with some HS guys in the last 24 hours.
To put some numbers on it, the Astros got Clifford last year for about $1.25 million–basically second round money. They took more seniors this year so they may have more money to spend, but I’d guess it’s in the same ballpark. For a lot of these HS guys with commitments to great schools, that probably won’t be good enough. But there’s probably someone out there it’ll work for.
My guess is Witt thinks he NEEDS to come back to UT to demonstrate his worth. He was not good or effective this year coming off the surgery.
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According to Kendall Rogers of D1 Baseball, Cam Johnson and Trent Caraway are both going to school rather than signing. Also mentioned two other highly ranked prep players, Gavin Grahovac and Caden Sorrell, who will both head to aTm this Fall. Somone else on Twitter said Cholowsky intends to go to UCLA, so there’s another name potentially off the board for the Astros.
As you said, though, enough $$$ can always change someone’s mind.
To your point about the senior signs/under slot picks/org depth, Jim Callis said something similar yesterday - teams aren’t calling some random name in these situations. They’ve invested the time and resources to scout these players and there has to be something there that they like to draft someone.
ETA - In addition to Jeron Williams, whom you highlighted above, I’d say pay attention as well to Ethan Pecko and Cam Fisher. Pecko won’t turn 21 until September and has flashed a plus fastball and slider. Fisher is somehwat limited defensively, but has plus power. I think Spencer Morris suggested something about Jaworsky (going overslot), who has to be the Astros’ most interesting pick of the draft. One video timed him running home to third on a triple at 10.6 seconds, which is just absurd.
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If the Longhors get Witt and Lebarron Johnson back next year, that’s huge.
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Fisher sounds like a future 1B/LF/DH with the potential to mash
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That’s my take as well. His slash line from 2023 is a bit ridiculous: .348/.507/.813 (with 30 HR). If it clicks for him, Fisher could be a very loud middle of the order bat.
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Understand, but quick question: I thought you could call these players ahead of time and verbally agree on a number before drafting? If no, then I see where you are coming from, but if yes, then said plan to save money could definitely be executed by just going player to player on your list until you find the ones that you really like who will accept a number under slot.
Hopefully he’s no Seth Beer, or if he is he helps get us a Greinke.
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