Bleacher Report - Andrew Dutkanych (RHP and Vandy commit)
Prospects Live - Walter Ford (RHP and Bama commit)
Pallette and Prielipp are certainly interesting. Both are arguably top 10 picks if not for TJS. Fabian makes little sense. Athletic and certainly has some power, but also has hell of a lot of swing and miss. Maybe as an underslot to save money later since he’s a senior sign? To me, he doesn’t profile as the type of player the Astros draft and develop - at least, not in the first round.
ETA: If the Astros sign one or both of Dutkanych and Ford, I’d be ecstatic. Ford won’t turn 18 until next year (reclassified for 2022) and has electric stuff, although his command is a bit iffy. Dutkanych also has pretty electric stuff, but will be a very expensive sign due to his Vanderbilt commitment.
And now that I’ve put that out into the universe, it undoubtedly will not happen.
Baseball America
Version 1.0: RHP Peyton Pallete, Arkansas (underwent TJS in Jan.)
Version 2.0: LHP Connor Prielipp, Alabama (underwent TJS in May '21)
Version 3.0: RHP Justin Campbell, Okla St (6’7" & drafted by Astros in 18th round back in '19)
Version 4.0: RHP Landon Sims, Miss St (TJS in March)
MLB Pipeline
Version 1.0 OF Jud Fabian, Florida (elite CFer who draws walks, has pop but whiffs a lot)
Version 2.0 OF Jud Fabian
Version 3.0 OF Brock Jones, Stanford (also played football as freshman but now focusing on baseball)
Version 4.0 3B Max Wagner, Clemson (.369/.496/.852 w/16 HRs in last 22 regular season games)
Version 5.0 OF Jacob Melton, Oregon St. (.364/.427/.669 and can play CF)
He’s from Curacao originally but moved to Miami two years ago. Talent-wise apparently he projects to be taken anywhere from rounds 6-10 but he’s got a commitment to Mississippi State so that could result in him not getting drafted at all. Jim Callis discusses all that here…
Keith Law dropped his latest mock draft yesterday:
OF Chase DeLauter - James Madison
FWIW, the emerging consensus, at least between Law and MLB Pipeline, is the Astros selecting a college bat in the first round. If that’s not merely conjecture, another name to consider:
OF Ryan Cermak - Illinois State
Top 100 prospect who slashed .340/.444/.696 for the Redbirds in the Missouri Valley Conference this year. Somewhat underrated because it’s the MVC, but he was also pretty damn impressive at last week’s draft combine (showed off a cannon for an arm and had a strong BP).
MLB Pipeline out with a new mock today but no change from last week in terms of the Astros pick.
So updating…
Baseball America
Version 1.0: RHP Peyton Pallete, Arkansas (underwent TJS in Jan.)
Version 2.0: LHP Connor Prielipp, Alabama (underwent TJS in May '21)
Version 3.0: RHP Justin Campbell, Okla St (6’7" & drafted by Astros in 18th round back in '19)
Version 4.0: RHP Landon Sims, Miss St (TJS in March)
Staff Draft: LHP Connor Prielipp
MLB Pipeline
Version 1.0 OF Jud Fabian, Florida (elite CFer who draws walks, has pop but whiffs a lot)
Version 2.0 OF Jud Fabian
Version 3.0 OF Brock Jones, Stanford (also played football as freshman but now focusing on baseball)
Version 4.0 3B Max Wagner, Clemson (.369/.496/.852 w/16 HRs in last 22 regular season games)
Version 5.0 OF Jacob Melton, Oregon St. (.364/.427/.669 and can play CF)
Version 6.0 OF Sterlin Thompson, Florida
Version 7.0 OF Sterlin Thompson
The Athletic/Keith Law
Version 1.0 OF Jud Fabian
Version 2.0 OF Chase Delauter, James Madison
Jim Callis did the writeup/picks for MLB Pipeline this week and in addition to Thompson and in line with the college bat theme said the Astros were “on the trail” of Brock Jones, Jacob Melton and Max Wagner (all previously mentioned) as well as OU SS Peyton Graham and Vandy OF Spencer Jones. Callis then tossed in a bit of curve citing a pair of pitchers as possibilities–Landon Sims (that was BA’s most recent consensus pick) and a high schooler out of Ohio by the name of Jacob Miller.
So the story is now coming out about what exactly was the medical issue that caused the Mets to pull their offer to Kumar Rocker after drafting him 10th overall last year. He seems fully recovered as evidenced by the numbers he just put up pitching in the indy Frontier League: a 32 Ks/4 BBs in 20 innings with a 1.35 ERA and a fastball hitting 99.
BA and MLB Pipeline both out with new mocks over the past few days and both go with pitchers for the Astros. So updating…
Baseball America
Version 1.0: RHP Peyton Pallete, Arkansas (underwent TJS in Jan.)
Version 2.0: LHP Connor Prielipp, Alabama (underwent TJS in May '21)
Version 3.0: RHP Justin Campbell, Okla St (6’7" & drafted by Astros in 18th round back in '19)
Version 4.0: RHP Landon Sims, Miss St (TJS in March)
Staff Draft: LHP Connor Prielipp
Version 5.0: RHP Blade Tidwell, Tennessee (missed 6 weeks early in spring w/shoulder soreness)
MLB Pipeline
Version 1.0 OF Jud Fabian, Florida (elite CFer who draws walks, has pop but whiffs a lot)
Version 2.0 OF Jud Fabian
Version 3.0 OF Brock Jones, Stanford (also played football as freshman but now focusing on baseball)
Version 4.0 3B Max Wagner, Clemson (.369/.496/.852 w/16 HRs in last 22 regular season games)
Version 5.0 OF Jacob Melton, Oregon St. (.364/.427/.669 and can play CF)
Version 6.0 OF Sterlin Thompson, Florida
Version 7.0 OF Sterlin Thompson
Version 8.0 RHP Cade Horton, OU (rising up draft boards due to his outstanding work in postseason)
The Athletic/Keith Law
Version 1.0 OF Jud Fabian
Version 2.0 OF Chase Delauter, James Madison
There’s not a lot of detail out there about how the new draft and follow rules will work. If it’s like the old draft and follow rules the answer would be no and no.
I’m sure you already know this but for those who may not: draft and follow only applies to guys who will be attending juco.
In addition to the previously discussed Sterlin Thompson, Jacob Melton, and Landon Sims, also mentioned:
RHP Jacob Miller (prep pitcher from OH; upper 90’s FB and high spin rate on CB and CU)
RHP Owen Murphy (prep pitcher from IL; athletic pitcher, but lacks some projection because he’s 6’1")
OF Spencer Jones - Vanderbilt (very athletic with comps to Aaron Judge for power; swing and miss questions because of his height, 6’7")
Baseball America
Version 1.0: RHP Peyton Pallete, Arkansas (underwent TJS in Jan.)
Version 2.0: LHP Connor Prielipp, Alabama (underwent TJS in May '21)
Version 3.0: RHP Justin Campbell, Okla St (6’7" & drafted by Astros in 18th round back in '19)
Version 4.0: RHP Landon Sims, Miss St (TJS in March)
Staff Draft: LHP Connor Prielipp
Version 5.0: RHP Blade Tidwell, Tennessee (missed 6 weeks early in spring w/shoulder soreness)
MLB Pipeline
Version 1.0 OF Jud Fabian, Florida (elite CFer who draws walks, has pop but whiffs a lot)
Version 2.0 OF Jud Fabian
Version 3.0 OF Brock Jones, Stanford (also played football as freshman but now focusing on baseball)
Version 4.0 3B Max Wagner, Clemson (.369/.496/.852 w/16 HRs in last 22 regular season games)
Version 5.0 OF Jacob Melton, Oregon St. (.364/.427/.669 and can play CF)
Version 6.0 OF Sterlin Thompson, Florida
Version 7.0 OF Sterlin Thompson
Version 8.0 RHP Cade Horton, OU (rising up draft boards due to his outstanding work in postseason)
Version 9.0 OF Drew Gilbert, Tennessee (CFer who whacked at a .362/.455/.673 clip this spring)
The Athletic/Keith Law
Version 1.0 OF Jud Fabian
Version 2.0 OF Chase Delauter, James Madison
Version 3.0 LHP Connor Prielipp
An interesting chart of some top draft prospects’ plate discipline (presumably chase rate) vs. bat power (exit velo):
You’ll notice Coastal Carolina SS Eric Brown as one of the more impressive hitters on the chart. He also has best-in-class contact rates. While most mocks don’t have him in the first round (more like 2-3), he seems to have a lot of skills the Astros prize. My little corner of stat dork twitter is extremely hyped about him.
